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Coronavirus: Experts predict rise of COVID-19 variant cases – CTV News

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TORONTO —
Infectious disease experts and COVID-19 modelers are sounding alarm bells of an approaching third wave expected to be driven by more contagious variants of the virus.

But while we brace for Wave 3, some are wondering if we ever actually cleared Wave 2, especially in populous areas of the country where transmission has remained more steady.

Experts say the definition of what constitutes a “wave” and pinpointing when it’s passed isn’t so clear.

Some say we’re on the tail end of the second wave now, as evidenced by the downward trend of cases across the country, while others say ebbs and flows haven’t been uniform enough to determine when one wave ends and another begins.

Caroline Colijn, a COVID modeler and mathematician at Simon Fraser University, says the word “wave” has been somewhat misleading. Waves of viruses tend to ease up on their own as immunity grows within a population, she says, which we haven’t reached yet with COVID.

Instead, the ebb and flow of SARS-CoV-2 has been dictated by our own actions, Colijn added, for instance restrictive measures that limit the ability of the virus to spread.

“This isn’t a wave, it’s a forest fire,” Colijn said. “We turn the hoses off and the flames build up again and we get exponential growth. Then we turn the hoses back on and cases decrease.”

Colijn, whose modelling predicts steep rises in cases around the end of February in six of Canada’s biggest provinces, says the challenge of “wave language” is that when waves recede, people think the threat has ceded with it.

But until we reach levels of herd immunity, she says, that’s not going to happen.

“We’re not seeing a natural tailing off. We’re seeing things drop because of restrictions — those fire hoses we put in front of the fire,” she said. “Then we turn the hoses off and we’re surprised that this wave is coming back.”

Canada’s top doctors said Friday that eight provinces have reported cases of new COVID variants, with three of them showing evidence of community transmission.

Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said there had been 429 cases of the variant first identified in the U.K., 28 cases of the variant first identified in South Africa, and one of the variant first found in Brazil.

While it sounds like a small number compared to our population, University of Manitoba virologist Jason Kindrachuk says the heightened transmissibility of those variants makes the situation more alarming.

Compounding things further is that true prevalence of the variants nationwide is unknown, he added, though some jurisdictions have been doing point-prevalence studies to help determine that.

Kindrachuk says one or two cases, when caught early and isolated, aren’t too concerning. But danger proliferates as more pop up.

“You have that initial fire and then sparks start flying … and that leads to a bunch of small fires,” he said. “If those start to catch, you lose the ability to necessarily keep things in control.”

Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, says the presence of more transmissible variants means people should be more diligent in adhering to current safety measures aimed at slowing the spread of other COVID strains, including limiting contacts, mask-wearing and distancing.

The spike in variant cases comes at a time when Canada appears to be “two-thirds of the way down the curve,” Tam said, as overall COVID cases fall.

Some jurisdictions, like Ontario, have taken that as reason to reopen. Most of the province is moving away from its stay-at-home orders next week, even though projections released Thursday show a potentially rapid rise by late February.

Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease expert with the University of Toronto, says reopening Ontario now could lead to further lockdowns in the province later.

“I anticipate our numbers over the next two weeks are going to be pretty good, but it’s four weeks from now, six weeks from now that I’m most concerned about,” he said.

Troy Day, a COVID modeler out of Queen’s University, says the problem with the variants is that they’re still lurking beneath the surface. And they may not truly be seen until they take hold more firmly.

Day said he’s concerned about a third wave in Canada because places like Britain have shown similar trajectories.

“Cases go down and you think everything’s OK, but underneath is actually an increase in variant cases that will eventually dominate everything,” he said.

Day says the word wave is “funny terminology,” adding he’s been hesitant to definitively label the ups and downs of COVID case counts that way.

“All the waves we’ve seen are driven largely by what we’re doing to control it,” Day said. “The more we open up and shut down, the more multiple waves we’ll have.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 12, 2021.

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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith praises jury system after Coutts protest verdict

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CALGARY – Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says the jury has spoken and needs to be respected in the case of two men found guilty for their actions at the 2022 Coutts border blockade.

Smith has expressed support and sympathy for COVID protesters like Anthony Olienick and Chris Carbert.

But she told the Shaun Newman podcast Thursday that it was a jury that found Olienick and Carbert guilty of mischief and weapon possession at a trial in Lethbridge, Alta., last month.

“It was a jury of their peers which I think is important because a jury trial is sacrosanct in our country and our province,” Smith said when asked for her thoughts on the trial.

“They looked at the evidence, rejected some of the charges and accepted some of the others.”

She added: “I think people should feel some confidence that the jury trial system is an important part of our process and that’s the outcome that it had.”

Earlier this week, Olienick and Carbert were sentenced to 6 1/2 years in prison after the jury found them guilty of mischief over $5,000 and possession of a firearm dangerous to the public peace.

Olienick was also found guilty of possessing pipe bombs.

They were found not guilty of the most serious charge of conspiracy to commit murder.

The men were granted almost four years’ credit for the time they spent in custody awaiting trial.

They were among multiple people charged for their roles at the Coutts blockade, which halted traffic at the Canada-U. S. border crossing for two weeks in 2022 in a protest against COVID-19 rules and vaccine mandates.

The men were charged after RCMP found guns, ammunition and body armour in trailers near the blockade.

The clash between COVID health mandates and individual freedoms polarized public opinion during the pandemic, resulting in a number of demonstrations such as the one at Coutts.

Anger continued to ripple during Olienick and Carbert’s trial.

Four days into the case in early June, jurors parking their cars in front of the courthouse were greeted with a message scrawled in chalk on a sidewalk: “840 Days Plus Already, Let the Coutts Boys Out of Jail Now.”

A British Columbia man was charged with obstruction of justice and banned from the courthouse. The judge rejected a defence request for a mistrial.

Smith, a staunch proponent of individual freedoms, ran into her own problems with the COVID protests that resulted in a stinging rebuke from Alberta’s then-ethics commissioner, Marguerite Trussler.

Just days before the 2023 Alberta election, Trussler determined Smith undermined democracy and broke conflict-of-interest rules by intervening in a criminal case and pressuring her attorney general to “make it go away.”

The case involved Artur Pawlowski, who was convicted of mischief for inciting the continuation of the Coutts blockade.

Smith later apologized to the legislature chamber for her actions while the Opposition New Democrats called for a police investigation.

Smith told Newman Thursday she is now being more careful.

“Just look at what the NDP did. They wrote a letter to the RCMP asking them to investigate me under Criminal Code interference in the justice system,” Smith said.

“I take my lawyer’s advice and I can’t comment on criminal justice matters.”

Coutts-related court cases continue to work their way through the system.

Three other men identified as leaders of the Coutts blockade will be sentenced on Sept. 27 in Lethbridge.

Alex Van Herk, Marco Van Huigenbos, and Gerhard (George) Janzen were each found guilty of one count of mischief over $5000.

Van Huigenbos came to court Monday for the sentencing of Olienick and Carbert and later told reporters the pair were victims of a “highly politicized” process.

“Six-and-a-half years for these gentlemen when we have violent criminals on parole, violent reoffenders in the public and we have men here who were involved in a political protest during unprecedented times,” Van Huigenbos said.

“These men didn’t murder anybody so are we setting the dangerous precedent of thought, which they were acquitted of?”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.



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Kingston police say two dead, one injured in daytime assault, suspect arrested

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KINGSTON, Ont. – Police in Kingston, Ont., say they’ve arrested a male suspect after a violent daytime assault left two people dead and one in hospital with life-threatening injuries.

Kingston police say they arrested the suspect without further incident just before 5 p.m., after negotiating his surrender for several hours.

Spokesperson Const. Anthony Colangeli says police received reports that the suspect may have been wielding an edged or blunt weapon, possibly both.

Police say officers were called to an encampment around a safe injection site and Integrated Care Hub around 10:40 a.m. after a report of a serious assault.

Police have closed Montreal Street between Railway Street and Hickson Avenue.

In a social media post, Kingston Mayor Bryan Paterson said he was “absolutely horrified” by the situation and called for the encampment’s removal and for the supervised consumption site to close.

“We need to clear the encampment, close this safe injection site and the (integrated care hub) until we can find a better way to support our most vulnerable residents,” he wrote.

“I will not stand by and wait until more people die — enough is enough.”

Police are advising the public to avoid the area as it will remain closed during the investigation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

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Smith says an Alberta pension plan estimate from the feds will spur hard questions

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EDMONTON – Premier Danielle Smith says if Ottawa comes back this fall with a lowball estimate on Alberta’s share of the Canada Pension Plan, hard questions will have to be asked on next steps.

“When we get that number, we’ll have to decide if they’re being unrealistic and unreasonable about it,” Smith told Shaun Newman on a Thursday podcast.

Smith told Newman a low number changes everything.

“If it’s equal (to) per capita, then that means I’d have to tell Albertans it’s about $93 billion that would be transferred,” Smith told Newman.

“(At that number) we wouldn’t be able to reduce your premiums, and we wouldn’t be able to increase your benefits.

“Is it still worth it?” she asked rhetorically. “Is the juice worth the squeeze?”

Alberta estimates it deserves more than half of the national retirement plan, about $334 billion, while the CPP Investment Board has pegged it closer to Alberta’s share of contributions, at about $100 billion.

Canada’s chief actuary is scheduled to review the entire issue and deliver her estimate sometime this fall. Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s office said Wednesday that no specific date has been announced.

The pension plan issue took off after Smith’s government won last spring’s general election.

Her government has argued Albertans are getting a raw deal under the national retirement plan, which includes all provinces except for Quebec.

The province launched the pension pitch to great fanfare last fall, with a panel conducting telephone town halls to gauge support for Alberta going it alone on pensions.

The public push was put on hold late last year as Smith said Albertans want an agreed upon estimate on what Alberta would be entitled to before deciding whether to press ahead.

While the public campaign has been put on the back burner, it continues to boil and bubble among some supporters of Smith’s United Conservative Party.

At a UCP members-only town hall in late July, Smith found herself defending the delay, and a government marketing push that failed to bring more Albertans on board with the idea.

Smith said she believes critics were able to throw cold water on the idea because of the eye-popping $334-billion number.

“Everybody looked at this and said, ‘Is that for real? Could Alberta really be overpaying that much?’ And the answer is yes, we do overpay that much on every single federal program,” she said.

“We have to get the certainty from the federal government that that is going to be the asset transfer,” she said.

Smith has said about a third of voters love the idea, a third hate it, and a third are open to being swayed.

“I promise you, if we get those numbers in the fall, we will go back out again, and we will hear from Albertans about whether they want a referendum,” said Smith.

A bill her government passed last year compels a referendum be held before the province can pull out of the CPP. It also says the government has the option, once it calls the plebiscite, to decide whether it will be legally bound to act on the result.

Smith has argued the province’s strong financial position and young workforce would deliver better benefits to a separate pension plan than staying in the CPP.

The government’s own Fair Deal panel found in 2020 that only 42 per cent of those polled thought an Alberta pension plan could improve the province’s place in the federation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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