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Coronavirus Massacred China Economy

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China says coronavirus doesn’t threaten the Chinese economy. But it already tried to hide the seriousness of the epidemic itself. Three reasons China’s government is also being dishonest about this: 1 – It’s taking desperate measures to fight the disease. 2 – And drastic action to brace its economy. 3 – China’s stock market is crashing.

China’s Foreign Minister denied any major risks to China’s economy Saturday:

The Chinese economy is well-positioned to overcome all risks and challenges. The fundamentals sustaining sound economic growth have not changed and will not change.

But his remarks were not at all consistent with his government’s response to coronavirus. And the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indexes are registering far more risk than Wang Yi lets on. Unfortunately, we also can’t trust the official Chinese pronouncements about the epidemic and its effects. They tried to cover up the epidemic in the first place, and their official death toll from coronavirus is very questionable.

Here’s how we know China’s economic growth is in serious danger.

A Frantic War With Coronavirus

The panic and urgency in China’s response to coronavirus is unmistakable. While new cases mounted at an alarming rate, the South China Morning Post captured disturbing footage published Feb 12. The video shows workers hastily ransacking a student dormitory. Authorities are converting it into coronavirus isolation wards.

But that’s just one example of China’s frantic fight to treat patients and stop the disease from spreading. The world was stunned when China built a 1000-bed hospital in ten days. It actually “panic-built” two of them. After that, Popular Mechanics published amazing time-lapse footage of one being built.

Moreover, the Xinhua News Agency’s “New China TV” published video footage capturing “hundreds of trucks” fogging the air in Luoyang, China with disinfectant using heavy chemical spraying machines. Luoyang is a city in Central China with a population of 6.5 million people. But it’s not the only city getting the fogging treatments.

Authorities disinfect the streets of Wuhan twice a day.

Further, police have quarantined entire families by force that refuse to voluntarily quarantine themselves. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says Chinese coronavirus quarantine measures are “formidable by any global standard.”

China’s Drastic Bid to Save Its Economy

Meanwhile, China is taking drastic measures to brace its economy from the mounting financial losses. The People’s Bank of China injected a record USD $83 billion into the economy on Jan 17, just as the coronavirus epidemic started.

This Monday China’s central bank injected another $129 billion as the Chinese stock market cratered. The bank pumped the extra liquidity into China’s money markets through reverse repo operations. All of this is on top of the $115 billion China pumped into the economy at the beginning of last month.

Moreover, China’s government is using targeted fiscal measures to soak up coronavirus losses. ING Bank economist Iris Pang reports China is giving out tax breaks to affected businesses. She notes this is a specific response to the epidemic. It differs from “the usual broad-based policies” to support the overall economy:

Fiscal policies include tax concessions on companies that are directly affected by the NCP [Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia], eg, tourism and catering. Companies that manufacture medical supplies and medicines are exempted from taxes and are allowed to receive subsidies from the government.

If coronavirus really poses no risk to China’s economy, the Chinese government and central bank sure aren’t acting like that’s true.

Coronavirus Is Crashing China’s Stock Market

Will the U.S. stock market take a hit next? | Source: Twitter

Meanwhile, coronavirus is racking up a massive economic cost. China’s Foreign Minister says China will emerge from the epidemic stronger, but it’s already weakened the Chinese economy. On Feb 3, after an extended Lunar New Year holiday, the Chinese benchmark CSI 300 Index crashed 9%. That was its worst open in nearly 13 years. It closed almost 8% lower. That prompted Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com to say:

The situation in China looks pretty dire. This has the hallmarks of a black swan event in the making – we simply don’t know yet what the impact will be.

The Shanghai Composite Index also plunged by 8%. Nearly $400 billion in market capitalization was lost. And it isn’t just publicly-traded corporations that the epidemic has already badly shaken. China’s small businesses are in trouble too:

A third of roughly 1,000 small and medium-sized companies surveyed by academics from Tsinghua University and Peking University last week said they could only survive for a month with the cash they have.

Banks and analysts cut their Chinese GDP forecasts for 2020 this month. That includes Citigroup, Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Group, Mizuho Bank, Natixis, Nomura Holdings, Richard Bernstein Advisors, and UBS. Even one of the Chinese government’s own economists forecasts a massive drop in GDP. Zhang Ming, of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences expects first quarter growth to drop below 5%.

Bottom Line

China is remarkably resilient. And its economic growth since the 1970s and over the last two decades lifted millions out of poverty. It was nothing short of miraculous. China will survive the coronavirus epidemic and continue to get stronger. But sound economic growth in the next year is hardly a certainty. The fundamentals have profoundly shifted.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of CCN.com.

This article was edited by Samburaj Das.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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