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Coronavirus offers lessons to get ready for the next pandemic

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Five months ago, when novel coronavirus first erupted in China, the federal government assured Canadians that their chances of catching COVID-19 were low.

Since then, tens of thousands of cases have been diagnosed and the pandemic has affected nearly all aspects of daily life, in Canada and around the world.

The government says it’s emphasizing speed over perfection in its economic response. Aid packages worth billions of dollars, such as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit, were developed and distributed in a matter of weeks. Canadian borders, however, were only closed in March, and provinces across the country are scrambling to deal with personal protective equipment shortages and devastating outbreaks at long-term care facilities.

By Saturday, May 2, there were 55,572 confirmed cases in Canada and over 3,400 people have died as a result of the virus.

So, what happens next time?

Dr. Leon Rivlin, chief and medical director of emergency medicine at the Humber River Hospital in Toronto, told Global News that Canada may not see the same spike or volume of patients as New York — the global epicentre of the virus — but could eventually end up with similarly high numbers of patients over a prolonged period of time.

“We’ve flattened the curve,” he said. “But the area under the curve will change.”

Once federal restrictions ease and stores reopen, Rivlin said many of the precautions Canadians are taking right now, possibly including the use of masks, hand sanitizer and goggles, will continue on as normalized parts of everyday life.

Craig Janes, director of the School of Public Health and Health Systems at the University of Waterloo (UOW), said how the government invests in its health-care system in the future will play a pivotal role in its preparation for the next pandemic.

“The public health system is your first line of defence… the hospitals are your last line of defence,” he said.

Several mistakes were made, Janes said. He told Global News that prior to the outbreak boosting Canada’s national stockpile of personal protective equipment (PPE) was “not a top priority,” leaving provinces to scramble to protect their frontline healthcare workers.

Provincial public health organizations have also been routinely subject to cuts and constraints.

Under Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s leadership, for example, municipalities in Ontario were made responsible for 30 per cent of public health funding as of Jan. 1. Thirty-five public health units were merged into 10, and $200 million was cut from their budgets.

Janes said cuts like those “probably put us in a poor state with this pandemic.”

Reza Afshari, an environmental health epidemiologist the University of British Columbia (UBC), added even once the pandemic is brought under control, there’s a good chance Canada will undergo a second and potentially third wave of the virus in November, as colder weather facilitates the spread of disease.

It could also become endemic — recurring periodically but constantly maintained at a base level — like chickenpox. To combat this, he said Canada needs to begin developing the next version of the guidelines for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19.

As air and regional travel expand, Tom Koch, a medical geographer at UBC, said the likelihood the virus will be carried through a broader population will increase.

Human beings create the conditions in which viruses thrive, carrying them from one place to another. That’s what Koch, who authored Disease Maps: Epidemics on the Ground, called “a fact of life.”

“Bacteria and viruses — which we are forced into — evolve and slap us upside the head. We come to this thinking that our genomics and that our science will offer an answer each time,” he said.

“The first thing we have to do as this pandemic eases is understand — in a very important way — it will not be over.”

Coming out of this pandemic, he said some of those unlucky enough to have been infected will require medium-term respiratory therapies, although “almost every epidemic has left us with a class of patients with unexpected complications that require continued care.”

As Canada seeks a return to new normals, Koch said the federal government will need a plan to ensure the continued care of those who will have complications, some of whom may need long-term care.

“We may have very good disaster plans, but then a recession happens or other priorities emerge and public health is lost in the shuffle,” he said. “We can’t do that if we wish to be prepared for the next [outbeak] and to keep the citizenry as healthy as possible.”

Koch added many of those Canadians will be elderly living in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, who account for almost 80 per cent of all COVID-19-related deaths in the country.

Ken Denike, another medical geographer at the university, said, “it’s pretty clear there was no plan” for long-term care facilities with dependencies on caregivers.

“There’s a threshold of population getting the disease, getting the virus at the beginning, which spreads fairly quickly,” he said.

Koch said reorganizing these institutions for chronic conditions into the public health care system could save lives.

“In many of these institutions are personal care workers who are among the least trained, least well-paid and most dedicated of staffers and long-term care,” he said.

“They need more training, more pay, and they need to be seen as critical members of the care cycle that we provide for all Canadians.”

To the federal government’s credit, many medical experts interviewed by Global News said Canada has been doing well, especially when compared with other countries.

The Canadian government was quick to announce they were adapting their Influenza pandemic preparedness policy to deal with COVID-19 in February, and recent federal modelling confirmed Canadian infection doubling rates are down.

Data collected by Global News from federal and provincial public health organizations across Canada shows that the country’s curve is indeed flattening.

Last week, chief public health officer Theresa Tam told reporters during a briefing that was in large part due to social distancing measures, which were implemented by the government in March.

“We’re seeing federal policy adapt to keep up with emerging knowledge of this pandemic. And I think that was great,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist with Toronto’s University Health Network.

On a provincial level though, Bogoch said there was room for improvement.

Western provinces were initially conducting more tests than others with denser populations like Ontario, which eventually ramped up its testing numbers to roughly 16,000 per day in April.

Should another pandemic occur, Bogoch said Canada needs to be prepared to test citizens in large quantities, which means more assessment centres and more testing sites.

“The country could still expand and still might need to expand other diagnostic testing as we move into the next phase of the pandemic,” Bogoch said.

Kelly Grindrod, a professor in the School of Pharmacy at UOW, said the federal government’s clear markers also helped.

“We have very good national public messaging. We’ve seen a lot of the public health officials speaking to us daily,” she said.

But from a planning perspective, Grindrod said she was at odds with the government’s failure to consider the importance of pharmacies during a pandemic.

Pharmacies across the country have been deemed an essential service, but many are still without proper personal protective equipment like masks or gloves, even having to set up plexiglass themselves to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Following the initial outbreak, Grindrod said many Canadians turned to pharmacies first, hoping to get tested.

Canadians get their flu shots and naloxone kits from pharmacies, but more recently staff are also screening patients for COVID-19 at the door, coming in close contact with patients who may be infected. Based on this, Grindrod said pharmacies need to qualify as public health providers.

“So much got shunted to the pharmacies,” she said.

“Pharmacies weren’t considered as part of the health-care system. They’re almost considered like a business without realizing that when you close many of the family doctor clinics, family doctors still provide services via telemedicine, but they’re not open necessarily for walk-ins and their patients don’t know how to track them down.”

Shelita Dattani, with the Canadian Pharmacists Association, said conservatively, between 60,000 and 70,000 masks are needed per day to supply the 10,000 pharmacies across the country with adequate amounts of PPE — something that needs to be accounted for moving forward.

“We recommend about eight hours per mask per person per day at a community pharmacy. Let’s say you just assume very conservatively that you have about five to seven staff per day in a pharmacy. It would be like 40 to 60 masks per day,” said Dattani, who acts as the association’s director of practice development and knowledge translation.

“As we look into the next round of pandemic planning — because this will happen again — we know that we really need to consider the pharmacies as one of the frontline public health providers to the public, as opposed to just focusing on those really high-risk people in the ICU,” she said.

As Canadian factories retool to supply gowns and masks to these front lines, there has been growing support to manufacture PPE locally. Ottawa is currently leading the national bulk purchasing effort for PPE, and the federal government said thousands of companies — previously shuttered by the novel coronavirus — have reached out, offering to make PPE if it means staying in business.

Another company, Bio-ID Diagnostics, has even created a new, more efficient way to test for the virus.

Koch said Canada cannot rely on private markets to deliver all the things the country needs in order to respond to these pandemics.

Stockpiling various resources, for example, or ensuring that Canada has domestic supply chains set up independent from other countries by actively investing in those companies, will be crucial the next time around, he said.

“We can easily shift and create our own supply chains,” said Koch.

“After this pandemic, will they switch back to the old [way] or will we begin to use this to create our own health infrastructure, which will support us not simply in an epidemic, but assure us that in normal times that we have a supply mechanism which is Canada-based rather than international?”

Bogoch added federal and provincial governments need to get on the same page. He said some provinces planned ahead, but those that didn’t have foresight experienced challenges.

“It’s clear we need better coordination,” he said.

Provinces like Alberta have a centralized approach to purchasing PPE, which allows them to buy it in bulk at a lower cost. The result was a surplus of PPE that the province is now sharing with the rest of the country.

Other provinces haven’t been as lucky.

Quebec, the epicentre of Canada’s COVID-19 outbreak, appealed to the federal government for more PPE while other provinces were forced to consider alternative supply sources after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered N95 masks to stop flowing into Canada — an order he has since backtracked on.

“We’re seeing in many jurisdictions rationing of personal protective equipment and hospitals scrambling to navigate broken supply chains to ensure that they have access to the essential personal protective equipment,” Bogoch said.

“Anything that you would need to boost your laboratory capacity, including having the right reagents, having the right swabs, having the right technology in-house, are essential.”

Sources: Globalnews.ca
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Edited by Harry Miller

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As plant-based milk becomes more popular, brands look for new ways to compete

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When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.

To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.

“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.

She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.

Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.

The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.

“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.

Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.

Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.

A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.

Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.

It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.

Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.

Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.

“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.

Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.

Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.

Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.

However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.

“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.

Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).

“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”

The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.

It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.

Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.

For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.

Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.

“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.

The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.

“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.

It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.

“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.

Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.

Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.

“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.



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Inflation expected to ease to 2.1%, lowest level since March 2021: economists

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Economists anticipate that Canada’s annual inflation rate in August fell to its lowest level since March 2021.

Ahead of Statistics Canada’s consumer price index set to be released on Tuesday, economists polled by Reuters are expecting the report to show prices rose 2.1 per cent from a year ago, down from a 2.5 per cent annual gain in July. The forecasters also anticipate inflation remained flat on a month-over-month basis.

“Unless there’s something lurking out there that we’re not aware of, it looks like we’re headed for a pretty favourable reading,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.

RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan said in a report last week that those expectations would put the headline inflation rate just a hair over the Bank of Canada’s two per cent inflation target.

“Most of that August slowing is expected from a pullback in gasoline prices, but the (Bank of Canada’s) preferred core CPI measures are also expected to trend lower, with the closely-watched three-month annualized growth rate easing from an average of 2.6 per cent in July,” the RBC economists said.

The continued progress on slowing inflation comes as the central bank has signalled a willingness to speed up cuts to its key lending rate if circumstances warrant.

The Bank of Canada reduced its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point earlier this month — the third consecutive cut — to 4.25 per cent. Governor Tiff Macklem said the decision was motivated by falling inflation, noting if the CPI moving forward “was significantly weaker than we expected … it could be appropriate to take a bigger step, something bigger than 25 basis points.”

On the other hand, Macklem said if inflation is stronger than expected, the bank could slow the pace of rate cuts.

Inflation has remained below three per cent since January and fears of price growth reaccelerating have diminished as the economy has weakened.

Porter said despite progress on the inflation rate, it’s still “not in a place where it’s a compelling argument that the bank has to go even faster.”

He forecasts the central bank will cut its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point at every meeting until July 2025, bringing it down to 2.5 per cent by that time. That prediction also comes after data released last week that showed Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.6 per cent in August from 6.4 per cent in July.

However, Porter said it’s possible the bank could speed up its rate cutting cycle if inflation continues easing.

“If we’re going to be wrong, it’s that we’re going to get to 2.5 per cent even more quickly and possibly lower than that,” said Porter.

“There is a case to be made that if the economy were to weaken further, there’s little reason for the bank to keep rates in what they consider to be the neutral zone. They could go below that.”

Shelter costs have remained the main driver of inflation as Canadians face high rents and mortgage payments. Porter noted that when factoring out housing costs, inflation in both Canada and U.S. is hovering slightly above one per cent.

“So really, the only thing keeping Canadian inflation above two per cent is shelter and it does look like shelter costs are probably going to fade,” he said.

“It looks as if rents are starting to moderate. They’re not necessarily falling, but not rising as quickly. And of course with interest rates coming down, ultimately the big kahuna here, mortgage interest costs, will recede as well.”

With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to meet on Wednesday, Janzen and Fan said they expect the American central bank to announce its first rate cut in four years.

“Gradual but persistent labour market softening and slowing inflation make it clear that current high interest rates are no longer needed,” they wrote.

“We think governor (Jerome) Powell’s comments will likely stay on the cautious side — hinting at future rate cuts without committing to a pre-determined path to allow for more flexibility in future decisions.”

—With files from Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Air Canada, pilots reach tentative deal, averting work stoppage

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MONTREAL – Passengers with plans to fly on Canada’s largest airline can breathe a sigh of relief after Air Canada said Sunday it has reached a tentative agreement with the union representing more than 5,200 of its pilots.

The news of a preliminary deal with the Air Line Pilots Association came shortly after midnight on Sunday when the airline issued a press release just days ahead of a potential work stoppage for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge.

The tentative deal averts a strike or lockout that could have begun on Wednesday, with flight cancellations expected before then.

“The new agreement recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline,” the carrier said in the statement.

It said Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge will continue to operate as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.

It said the terms of the new deal will remain confidential pending a ratification vote by the membership, expected to be completed over the next month, and approval by Air Canada’s board of directors.

ALPA issued a statement after midnight Sunday, saying if ratified, the tentative agreement will generate an approximate additional $1.9 billion of value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the agreement.

First Officer Charlene Hudy, chair of the Air Canada ALPA MEC, says in a Sunday statement, “The consistent engagement and unified determination of our pilots have been the catalyst for achieving this contract.” She added that progress was made on several key issues including compensation, retirement, and work rules.

The airline said customers who changed flights originally scheduled from between Sunday and Sept. 23 under its labour disruption plan can change their booking back to their original flight in the same cabin at no cost, providing there is space available.

In the lead-up to Sunday’s deadline to issue notice of a stoppage, the two sides said they remained far apart on the issue of pay, which was central in the negotiations that had stretched for more than a year.

The pilots’ union argued Air Canada continues to post record profits while expecting pilots to accept below-market compensation. It had also said about a quarter of pilots report taking on second jobs, with about 80 per cent of those doing so out of necessity.

The airline had said it has offered salary increases of more than 30 per cent over four years, plus improvements to benefits, and said the union was being inflexible with “unreasonable wage demands.”

Air Canada and numerous business groups had called on the government to intervene in the matter, including the Canadian Federation of Independent Business and the Canadian and U.S. Chambers of Commerce.

“The Government of Canada must take swift action to avoid another labour disruption that negatively impacts cross-border travel and trade, a damaging outcome for both people and businesses,” said the chambers and the Business Council of Canada in a statement Friday.

The union had called for the opposite approach, with Association President Capt. Tim Perry issuing a Friday statement asking Ottawa to respect workers’ collective rights and refrain from getting involved in the bargaining process. He said the government intervention violates the constitutional rights and freedoms of Canadians.

For his part, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had said it’s up to the two sides to hash out a deal.

Trudeau said Friday the government isn’t just going to step in and fix the issue, something it did promptly after both of Canada’s major railways saw lockouts in August and during a strike by WestJet mechanics on the Canada Day long weekend.

He said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.

Air Canada had already begun preparing for a possible shutdown, saying its cargo service had stopped accepting items such as perishables and indicating a wind-down plan for passenger flights would take effect if a notice of a strike or lockout was issued.

The tentative deal averts travel disruptions for the 670 daily flights on average operated by Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, and the travel of more than 110,000 passengers.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

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