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Coronavirus R value in Alberta remains low after parts of economy reopened – Globalnews.ca

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The reproduction number, also known as R number and R value, of the coronavirus in Alberta has been dropping over the last few months and has been holding steady even after two different phases of reopening in the province.

However, experts say that isn’t cause for celebration quite yet, saying Albertans need to continue following public health measures.

READ MORE: What the coronavirus reproduction number is, and why we should keep an eye on it

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The reproduction number explains, if one infected person is introduced into a community, how many secondary people would become infected.

For example, if the R number is one, one person infects one other person who then infects one other person. An R number of two means one person infects two others who go on to infect two others each. An R number of 0.5 means fewer people will become infected than the previous generation of cases. For example, 100 people would infect 50 people, who infect 25 people and so on and so forth.

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Explaining COVID-19’s reproduction number


Explaining COVID-19’s reproduction number

In essence, a higher R number means more people can become infected, allowing faster spread of the disease than a smaller R number.

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“If you want to overcome an epidemic, the lower the R is, the better news that is. To have an epidemic end, you want to work with an R below one,” said epidemiologist Paul Veugelers, who is a professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Alberta.

Numbers provided to Global News from Alberta Health show the R number in the province has been slowly falling:

  • April 8 – 1.7
  • April 28 – 1.4
  • May 1 – 1.2
  • May 26 – 1.0
  • June 19 – 1.0
The R number in Alberta over the last few months.


The R number in Alberta over the last few months.


Tonia Gloweski/Global News

“We’ve seen that R [number] has gone down. That means infections are coming down so, [we’re] on the right path.

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“R one, where we are currently, means we’re not on the track where the epidemic will end but the epidemic is also not growing,” Veugelers said.

The R number has fallen or remained steady even after the province moved into Phase 1 and Phase 2 of reopening, which fell on May 14 and June 12 respectively.

READ MORE: Coronavirus: Gyms, pools, indoor fitness can open June 12 for Stage 2 of Alberta relaunch

“The fact that the R [number] continues to drop would suggest that, first of all, we probably don’t have a lot of COVID-19 circulating in our community and that people are still actually doing a reasonably good job with their physical distancing and that kind of thing,” said infectious disease expert Dr. Stephanie Smith. Smith adds that expanded testing in the province may also be affecting positivity rates.

Veugelers said it’s worth a pat on the back that the R number hasn’t increased as the province reopened, but cautions it isn’t cause for celebration quite yet.

“It should also be encouragement, like, we’re not there yet. We want that R [number] to be below one,” he said, adding more restrictive measures, handwashing, social isolation and social distancing can help bring the R number down even further.

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He said it is important for the R number to be continuously monitored and points to Germany, where some regions have brought back lockdown measures after seeing a rise in the R number.

READ MORE: Germany cautions coronavirus pandemic far from over as economies restart

“We are aware if we loosen up these restrictive measures, the R [number] may increase,” Veugelers said.

“Once the R [number] is on the increase again, you need to turn around those loosening measures.”

The R number may be falling but Dr. Smith said Albertans need to continue being vigilant.

“The R [number] can fluctuate so it doesn’t mean we can completely stop doing all the things we’ve been doing that have actually led to the R [number] decreasing,” Dr. Smith said.

with files from Patrick Cain

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Economy

China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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Economy

German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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