Canadian public health officials initially underestimated how deadly the coronavirus would be in long-term care homes and have revised their calculations in new modelling numbers shared on Tuesday.
But chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says the data also shows Canada is slowing the overall spread of the first wave of the virus.
“We are making clear progress to slow the spread and bring the epidemic under control,” she said in a briefing with journalists to explain the new modelling data.
“[On April 9] Canada’s confirmed case count was doubling every three to five days. At this time, the number of cases is doubling at a rate of every 16 days.”
One factor in that, Tam said, is the fact that infected individuals are not infecting as many others.
When she briefed journalists on April 9, each infected person had spread the coronavirus to 2.19 other individuals, while the current transmission rate sees the virus spread to just over one other person.
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1:10 Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says goal of health measures to ensure each infected individual transmits the disease to less than one person
Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says goal of health measures to ensure each infected individual transmits the disease to less than one person
However, while the COVID-19 fatality rate was initially calculated as roughly 2.2 per cent, Tam said the rate has now been revised to 5.5 per cent in light of a spike in deaths in long-term care homes.
Overall, deaths in long-term care and seniors’ homes account for 79 per cent of the total deaths in the country, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).
Individuals over the age of 60 account for 95 per cent of total deaths, PHAC’s newest numbers said.
Prior to the release of the data on Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cautioned that although the modelling shows the restrictions locking down the country are working, that doesn’t mean the danger has passed.
“In many parts of the country, the curve has flattened,” Trudeau said during his daily news conference outside Rideau Cottage in Ottawa.
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“But we’re not out of the woods yet.”
0:51 Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says COVID-19 curve ‘has flattened’ in many parts of the country
Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says COVID-19 curve ‘has flattened’ in many parts of the country
PHAC updates short-term, but not long-term, projections
Health officials on Tuesday also provided a forecast for where things could be by May 5.
The new models suggest the country could see total deaths hit between 3,277 and 3,883 by next week, with 53,196 to 66,835 total confirmed cases.
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The update comes nearly three weeks after PHAC first released projections for the COVID-19 pandemic.
Those projections — released April 9, based on the data that officials had at the time — laid out three possible long-term scenarios for how the pandemic might unfold in Canada based on strong, weak and no control measures for containing the virus.
Those first projections suggested that between 11,000 and 22,000 people could die from the virus in a “best-case scenario” where 2.5 to five per cent of the population is infected — but the new modelling data released on Tuesday did not alter those long-term projections.
“I think for our planning purposes, these three different scenarios are still useful at this moment in time,” Tam said.
0:45 Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says Canadians must ‘plan to live’ with COVID-restrictions for some time
Coronavirus outbreak: Dr. Tam says Canadians must ‘plan to live’ with COVID-restrictions for some time
On April 9, federal officials stated that the path ahead depended heavily on Canadians’ collective actions.
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“The same holds true today,” Trudeau said on Tuesday.
Feds only have detailed info on 57 per cent of total cases in Canada
As of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, there are 49,804 confirmed cases of the coronavirus across the country, and 2,852 deaths linked to the virus so far.
However, as of Monday, PHAC only had received detailed data on approximately 57 per cent of the total number of cases reported to the agency, according to a daily epidemiological report.
The quality of the data shared by the provinces with PHAC has repeatedly been questioned by infectious disease and mathematical experts who point out it isn’t separated geographically and lacks detail distinguishing the dates of first symptoms from lab testing dates to the date a case was reported to health authorities — all of which can differ by weeks.
Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, admitted that acquiring complete data amid the pandemic is a challenge, but still maintained that the data the agency does currently have is “a good representation.”
“It is, to be honest … a bit of a weakness in terms of our collective system, the fact that at the federal level — our national level — we only get a certain percentage of the data,” Njoo said.
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“It’s not because of a lack of goodwill and that the provinces [and] territories don’t want to give us data, but there are some challenges — issues, infrastructure and so on.
“We’re all working together, I think, really well. And I think in the future, to be quite honest, those are things we need to look at in terms of how data’s managed, how data’s collected, transferred — even at local level to provincial level, and then to the federal level.”
The challenge increasingly confronting public health officials is satisfying a public hungry for clear information about how long their lives will be disrupted and what measures they should be taking to stay as safe as possible.
Ian Schnoor, president and founder of The Marquee Group — which is Canada’s leading data modelling firm — said that was evident in the briefing with Tam and Njoo.
“People were desperate and craving for more insight and understanding of what the future might look like,” he said of the repeated questioning by journalists for further explanations of the models.
“You could hear the frustration in their tone.”
Schnoor said there should be a modelling expert at the briefings who can convey technical details like how the data was prepared, what assumptions anchor them and how those assumptions translate into action.
But that isn’t Tam, he said, adding it isn’t her job to do mathematical modelling.
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“She’s the expert that can talk about public health measures that need to be put in place, she can talk about distancing and effective protocols that should be put in place and the way that the virus works and look for drugs and vaccines, but she was way out of her depth,” he said.
“Models need to be a communication tool and they’re not being used that way.”
Nova Scotia RCMP say their investigation into two suspicious deaths earlier this month has concluded that one man died by homicide and the other by suicide.
The bodies of two men, aged 40 and 73, were found in a home in Windsor, N.S., on Sept. 3.
Police say the province’s medical examiner determined the 40-year-old man was killed and the 73-year-old man killed himself.
They say the two men were members of the same family.
No arrests or charges are anticipated, and the names of the deceased will not be released.
RCMP say they will not be releasing any further details out of respect for the family.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
For the first time in their history, members of the Cree community of Nemaska received a visit from a sitting Quebec premier on Sunday and were able to share first-hand the story of how they were displaced by a hydroelectric project in the 1970s.
François Legault was greeted in Nemaska by men and women who arrived by canoe to re-enact the founding of their new village in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region, in northern Quebec, 47 years ago. The community was forced in the early 1970s to move from its original location because members were told it would be flooded as part of the Nottaway-Broadback-Rupert hydro project.
The reservoir was ultimately constructed elsewhere, but by then the members of the village had already left for other places, abandoning their homes and many of their belongings in the process.
George Wapachee, co-author of the book “Going Home,” said community members were “relocated for nothing.”
“We didn’t know what the rights were, or who to turn to,” he said in an interview. “That turned us into refugees and we were forced to abandon the life we knew.”
Nemaska’s story illustrates the challenges Legault’s government faces as it looks to build new dams to meet the province’s power needs, which are anticipated to double by 2050. Legault has promised that any new projects will be developed in partnership with Indigenous people and have “social acceptability,” but experts say that’s easier said than done.
François Bouffard, an associate professor of electrical engineering at McGill University, said the earlier era of hydro projects were developed without any consideration for the Indigenous inhabitants living nearby.
“We live in a much different world now,” he said. “Any kind of hydro development, no matter where in Quebec, will require true consent and partnership from Indigenous communities.” Those groups likely want to be treated as stakeholders, he added.
Securing wider social acceptability for projects that significantly change the landscape — as hydro dams often do — is also “a big ask,” he said. The government, Bouchard added, will likely focus on boosting capacity in its existing dams, or building installations that run off river flow and don’t require flooding large swaths of land to create reservoirs.
Louis Beaumier, executive director of the Trottier Energy Institute at Polytechnique Montreal, said Legault’s visit to Nemaska represents a desire for reconciliation with Indigenous people who were traumatized by the way earlier projects were carried about.
Any new projects will need the consent of local First Nations, Beaumier said, adding that its easier to get their blessing for wind power projects compared to dams, because they’re less destructive to the environment and easier around which to structure a partnership agreement.
Beaumier added that he believes it will be nearly impossible to get the public — Indigenous or not — to agree to “the destruction of a river” for a new dam, noting that in recent decades people have come to recognize rivers as the “unique, irreplaceable riches” that they are.
Legault’s visit to northern Quebec came on Sept. 15, when the community gathers every year to remember the founding of the “New Nemaska,” on the shores of Lake Champion in the heart of the boreal forest, some 1,500 kilometres from Montreal. Nemaska Chief Clarence Jolly said the community invited Legault to a traditional feast on Sunday, and planned to present him with Wapachee’s book and tell him their stories.
The book, published in 2022 along with Susan Marshall, is filled with stories of Nemaska community members. Leaving behind sewing machines and hunting dogs, they were initially sent to two different villages, Wapachee said.
In their new homes, several of them were forced to live in “deplorable conditions,” and some were physically and verbally abused, he said. The new village of Nemaska was only built a few years later, in 1977.
“At this time, families were losing their children to prison-schools,” he said, in reference to the residential school system. “Imagine the burden of losing your community as well.”
Thomas Jolly, a former chief, said he was 15 years old when he was forced to leave his village with all his belongings in a single bag.
Meeting Legault was important “because have to recognize what happened and we have to talk about the repercussions that the relocation had on people,” he said, adding that those effects are still felt today.
Earlier Sunday, Legault was in the Cree community of Eastmain, where he participated in the official renaming of a hydro complex in honour of former premier Bernard Landry. At the event, Legault said he would follow the example of his late predecessor, who oversaw the signing of the historic “Paix des Braves” agreement between the Quebec government and the Cree in 2002.
He said there is “significant potential” in Eeyou Istchee James Bay, both in increasing the capacity of its large dams and in developing wind power projects.
“Obviously, we will do that with the Cree,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
NEMASKA – For the first time in their history, members of the Cree community of Nemaska received a visit from a sitting Quebec premier on Sunday and were able to share first-hand the story of how they were displaced by a hydroelectric project in the 1970s.
François Legault was greeted in Nemaska by men and women who arrived by canoe to re-enact the founding of their new village in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region, in northern Quebec, 47 years ago. The community was forced in the early 1970s to move from their original location because they were told it would be flooded as part of the Nottaway-Broadback-Rupert hydro project.
The reservoir was ultimately constructed elsewhere, but by then the members of the village had already left for other places, abandoning their homes and many of their belongings in the process.
George Wapachee, co-author of the book “Going Home,” said community members were “relocated for nothing.”
“We didn’t know what the rights were, or who to turn to,” he said in an interview. “That turned us into refugees and we were forced to abandon the life we knew.”
The book, published in 2022 by Wapachee and Susan Marshall, is filled with stories of Cree community members. Leaving behind sewing machines and hunting dogs, they were initially sent to two different villages, 100 and 300 kilometres away, Wapachee said.
In their new homes, several of them were forced to live in “deplorable conditions,” and some were physically and verbally abused, he said. The new village of Nemaska was only built a few years later, in 1977.
“At this time, families were losing their children to prison-schools,” he said, in reference to the residential school system. “Imagine the burden of losing your community as well.”
Legault’s visit came on Sept. 15, when the community gathers every year to remember the founding of the “New Nemaska,” on the shores of Lake Champion in the heart of the boreal forest, some 1,500 kilometres from Montreal. Nemaska Chief Clarence Jolly said the community invited Legault to a traditional feast on Sunday, and planned to present him with Wapachee’s book and tell him their stories.
Thomas Jolly, a former chief, said he was 15 years old when he was forced to leave his village with all his belongings in a single bag.
Meeting Legault was important “because have to recognize what happened and we have to talk about the repercussions that the relocation had on people,” he said, adding that those effects are still felt today.
Earlier Sunday, Legault had been in the Cree community of Eastmain, where he participated in the official renaming of a hydro dam in honour of former premier Bernard Landry.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
