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Could The Iran Nuclear Deal Bring Oil Back Down – OilPrice.com

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Could The Iran Nuclear Deal Bring Oil Back Down? | OilPrice.com


Osama Rizvi

Osama Rizvi is an economic and global oil market analyst who brings in a holistic point of view connecting geopolitics, economy and politics. He has…

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  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday morning sent oil prices beyond $100 for the first time since 2014 as supply fears gripped an already bullish market.
  • In an extremely tight oil market with low spare capacity and high geopolitical risk, a successful Iran nuclear deal is the only event that could bring oil prices back down.
  • While an Iran nuclear deal does appear to be within reach, even that will struggle to bring prices down if the Russia and Ukraine crisis continues to escalate.

On Thursday morning, the 24th of February 2022, Putin gave a short speech in which he ordered a “special military operation” in the eastern region of Ukraine. This came a day after he delivered an aggressive speech, denying Ukraine its sovereignty and recognizing the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, situated on the eastern side of Ukraine. At the time of writing, there are missiles being fired and reports are coming that troops are nearing Kyiv, the capital. In response to this invasion, oil prices breached $100 for the first time since 2014. Given the condition of the overall global economy, with rampant inflation and impending interest rate hikes, there seems to be only one potential bearish factor in today’s markets. The restoration of the Iranian Nuclear Deal is the only event that could significantly cool down crude markets.

If the current conditions persist, there really is no limit to how high oil prices could rise. Even claims about $150 oil, which seemed unrealistic only a few days ago, have started to look possible after today. The risk and fear premium is at its peak, as the shadow of a full-blown war looms over markets. There are two potential scenarios here for the Ukraine crisis and oil prices.

One scenario involves a continued assault on Ukraine by Russia sparking a string of sanctions and reactions. In this scenario, oil prices could rise to $150 or higher. At that point, even a flurry of bearish events would struggle to bring oil back below $100 any time soon. In the second scenario, tensions between Russia and Ukraine would diffuse and a diplomatic solution would be reached. This second scenario seems highly unlikely given the recent escalation, but there is a chance that Putin has limited and specific goals in mind. If the second scenario does come to pass, there is only one event that could truly drag oil prices lower.

A successfully negotiated Iran nuclear deal could bring millions of barrels of oil to the markets and alter the fundamentals. This has the potential to cause a significant correction in oil markets. According to a Bloomberg article, Iran has been moving millions of barrels of oil into tankers since December in preparation for a deal. According to Kpler, Iran may have 65 to 80 million barrels on offshore tankers, the majority of which is condensate. Iran’s daily production can reach up to 3.4 mbpd within the first 3 months of a successful deal and may hit 3.7 after 6 months. That is a significant supply disruption for oil markets.

Gasoline prices have touched $3.53 at pumps in the U.S., which is the highest since the summer of 2014. A prolonged spell of such elevated gasoline prices can eat away at Biden’s political capital and may spell trouble for his elections. The Biden administration had already publicly asked OPEC+ to increase output and bring prices down – but the cartel didn’t comply.

As such, the Iran nuclear deal remains the only viable option to bring oil prices down significantly. Even then, the effect of the deal will depend on both its timing and how the Ukraine crisis develops. The deal seems to be moving closer. Iran appears to free some prisoners and the U.S. to unfreeze Iranian funds, in South Korean banks. Iran’s exports have already increased, touching 1 mbpd first time in the past 3 years (most went to China). Before sanctions, Iran used to export around 2.5 mbpd. This may come back if the deal is successfully negotiated. Iran has recently called on its Western partners to make certain decisions and “finish the job”.

If the tensions between Russia and Ukraine settle down and the Iran nuclear deal is then successfully concluded, oil prices might yet drop back down. Ultimately, it all depends on just how far Russia is willing to go with its invasion of Ukraine. 

By Osama Rizvi for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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