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COVID-19 fourth wave abating in Alberta, but many cases being missed: independent modeller – Calgary Herald

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Alberta’s COVID-19 cases have been on a steady decline since peaking in late September

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Alberta is moving out of its fourth wave of COVID-19, with infections projected to continue to drop into November, according to an independent model.

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That’s thanks in large part to sweeping provincial public health restrictions introduced in mid-September , said Dean Karlen with the B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group.

“Those measures really were very effective for Alberta to turn this around,” said Karlen, a University of Victoria physics professor.

“It’s been remarkably consistent over the past four weeks, ever since those measures were introduced and took effect. In other words, behaviour and the modes of transmission are mostly constant in the province.”

Karlen added the decline is expected to continue while current measures remain in place.

Alberta’s COVID-19 cases have been on a steady decline since peaking in late September. On Wednesday, the province reported 645 new cases of the virus from 11,343 tests, for a 5.7 per cent positivity rate. The new cases mark a 17.9 per cent decrease from the previous Wednesday.

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Active case counts are also decreasing. Alberta now has 8,733 active COVID-19 cases, the fewest since Aug. 24.

Karlen’s modelling is now using hospital admissions to track the trajectory of the pandemic in Alberta, after recent indications that Alberta’s testing and contact tracing system is missing a considerable number of cases of the virus.

“In Alberta, the last wave was significantly larger than the previous waves, even though you don’t see that in the case counts. It’s just that a smaller fraction of infections were identified as cases,” Karlen said.

“We couldn’t rely on how the cases were growing or declining to accurately measure the infection history of COVID for this wave.”

During the fourth wave, hospitalizations in Alberta from COVID-19 peaked at 1,133, with ICU patients peaking at 267, numbers that forced widespread surgical cancellations and pushed Alberta’s health-care system to its limits.

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As of Wednesday, those numbers had dropped to 810 hospitalizations and 184 ICU patients — still higher than numbers seen at any point during previous waves.

The fourth wave also brought a spike in deaths from COVID-19. Since Sept. 1, 685 Albertans have died from the virus, including an additional 10 deaths reported Wednesday.

Despite the ongoing decline in cases, Alberta chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said Tuesday that Albertans should stay the course and continue to follow public health measures .

“Ultimately, we know there’s still a lot of COVID out there and we do need to maintain caution,” she said.

Karlen agreed continued adherence to public health measures will help keep Alberta on track to end the fourth wave. He said seasonal effects could lead to an increase in transmission as winter approaches, but increased immunization rates could also help drive transmission down. He added officials must watch trends closely and take prompt action if necessary “to avoid a massive fifth wave.”

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Immunization efforts continue in Alberta, with more than 15,000 additional shots reported Wednesday.

Among Albertans age 12 and older, the group eligible to be vaccinated, 86.8 per cent have at least one shot and 79.4 per cent are double-vaccinated. In the general population, 73.8 per cent of people have at least one dose and 67.5 per cent have both necessary shots.

A new group of Albertans could soon be eligible to get immunized against COVID-19. An advisory committee to the United States Food and Drug Administration voted in favour of using Pfizer-BioNTech shots for those age five-to-11 Tuesday, and Health Canada is currently reviewing whether to offer the Pfizer shot to the same age group.

There are 391,584 people in Alberta between the ages of five and 11, according to provincial government data.

— With files from Dylan Short

jherring@postmedia.com

Twitter: @jasonfherring

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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