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COVID-19 hasn't gone anywhere in Canada — and we could still see another surge – CBC.ca

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This is an excerpt from Second Opinion, a weekly health and medical science newsletter. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can do that by clicking here.


COVID-19 may no longer be top of mind for Canadians, but there are still more cases and hospitalizations now than at some of the worst points of the pandemic — and while we may have moved on, the virus definitely hasn’t.

Canada has lifted almost all public health measures as COVID-19 levels continue to drop from the peak of the devastating Omicron wave that overwhelmed testing capacity and fuelled a record surge in hospitals across the country.

But a recent rise in global COVID-19 cases, the spread of a more contagious Omicron subvariant and a spike in early surveillance signals across Canada has experts increasingly worried we could be on the verge of another surge.

“Following several weeks of declining activity nationally, the average daily case counts are now levelling off,” Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said during a news conference Friday. 

“As public health measures ease, increased levels of transmission are not unexpected since the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still circulating widely.” 

People walk through Robson Square near the Vancouver Art Gallery in Vancouver on March 8. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

‘This is not over yet’ 

A steep drop in testing across much of the country has blurred the picture of how much the virus is circulating, yet other metrics such as wastewater data and hospitalizations suggest COVID-19 levels remain higher than at many other points in the pandemic.

More than 4,000 Canadians are currently hospitalized for COVID-19, and although that total has been dropping from a January peak, it’s still the highest since April 2021 — and almost as high or higher than the peak of every other wave. 

“Even though we’re in a much better place now than we were one and two months ago, there’s still a lot of COVID around and there’s still a lot of people in hospital with COVID,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases physician at Toronto General Hospital and member of Ontario’s COVID-19 vaccine task force. 

“Sadly, this is not over yet.”



The silver lining for Canada is that our combination of high vaccination rates and infection-based immunity will ensure most Canadians are protected against serious illness. 

Yet the highly-contagious Omicron variant — including the BA.2 subvariant that’s on track to dominate new cases — is proving able to infect people more easily than its predecessors.

Measuring booster protection

There are also concerns over waning immunity, with studies showing protection from infection can decline within months even after a booster — while protection against hospitalization appears to be holding up. 

A recent report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found protection from infection dropped from 69 per cent within two months of a second dose to just 37 per cent after five months. 

That protection increased to 87 per cent with a booster, but dropped down to 66 per cent between four and five months and fell to just 31 per cent after five or more.

A new CDC report released Friday suggests boosters can still prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, finding those who received three doses were 94 per cent less likely to be put on a ventilator or die from COVID-19 compared to those who are unvaccinated.

But while boosters are still remarkably protective against severe illness, less than half of Canadians have received one.

“Our third shot coverage is still lower than in many other jurisdictions, and Omicron in any case infected lots of people who’d had three shots,” said Dr. David Naylor, who co-chairs the federal government’s COVID-19 Immunity Task Force.

“It’s likely that the Omicron tsunami did provide a pretty substantial boost to background immunity for lots of Canadians. What’s not clear, however, is how much immunity is conferred by a mild case of COVID-19 due to Omicron and how long that protection lasts.” 

Nurses attend to a patient in the intensive care unit of Humber River Hospital in Toronto on Jan. 25. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

That could be a key factor in whether Canada can avoid a major uptick in hospitalizations in the weeks ahead, Naylor said, but there’s still a possibility we may be in for an “ugly spring.”

“We might have a wave or a smaller wavelet. The extent to which this impacts us in Canada is not really known,” Bogoch added. 

“While we do have some good community level protection, is it good enough to stop hospitals from filling up again? I’m not sure.”

Wastewater signals increasing in Canada

In Ontario, where PCR testing access is now extremely limited — making it tougher to figure out accurate infection rates — the province’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table recently reported a slight uptick in concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 through wastewater surveillance.

Based on that case growth, the table estimates the current daily number of infections is anywhere from 15,000 to 20,000 and expects hospital occupancy to rise, though not to the crushing levels of earlier waves.

There’s a recent upturn in wastewater data from Calgary as well, while in Saskatoon, the wastewater virus load increased by 5.4 per cent by March 9 when compared to the weekly average of the previous week, University of Saskatchewan data shows.

That Saskatoon data also shows the BA.2 subvariant made up more than 42 per cent of the latest reported virus load — slightly higher than its fellow subvariant, BA.1 — and the university now expects BA.2 will likely “completely overtake” BA.1 over the next few weeks.

Meanwhile on the east coast, P.E.I. public health officials say positivity rates at test centres are rising, while Newfoundland data shows cases began going up again in just the last few days.

Global rise in COVID-19 ‘stark reminder’ to Canada

New infections have jumped by eight per cent globally compared to the previous week, World Health Organization data shows, with 11 million new cases and just over 43,000 new deaths reported between March 7 to 13 — marking the first spike since the end of January.

The biggest jump was in the Western Pacific region, which includes South Korea and China, where cases rose by 25 per cent and deaths by 27 per cent. 

Many European countries are also experiencing a rise in cases. In Denmark, a BA.2-driven surge began in February, while the U.K. is now seeing rising infection rates and hospitalizations — both up at least 20 per cent from last week — following the end of the country’s pandemic restrictions.

WATCH | COVID-19 cases surge in Asia, Europe as public health measures relax

COVID-19 cases surge in Asia, Europe as public health measures relax

2 days ago
Duration 4:18

Figures showing a global rise in COVID-19 cases are ‘just the tip of the iceberg,’ says the director general of the World Health Organization, blaming the increase on the BA.2 subvariant, easing public public measures and low vaccination rates in some countries. 4:18

“Watching what’s going on in terms of case numbers in Europe, I think should be certainly a bit of a stark reminder that the virus has not disappeared,” said Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor of viral pathogenesis at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg and Canada Research Chair of emerging viruses.

“BA.2 should, in my mind, kind of reinvigorate us to realize we’re not through with this yet and in fact the virus can still change.” 

Canada remains a unique situation, given its underlying population differences and vaccination rates, Kindrachuk said, which could mean things play out differently here. 

“But we have throughout the pandemic also seen that things that have happened in Europe have ultimately then moved into North America,” he said.

“And we’ve had a bit of time lag where we at least can start to try and prepare.”

A couple walk through a market in Hong Kong on March 18. (Isaac Lawrence/AFP/Getty Images)

The latest available data shows BA.2 accounts for 22 per cent of cases in Canada and estimates are that it spreads roughly 30 per cent more easily. 

Tam said it will likely become the dominant strain in Canada in the coming weeks but so far it’s been increasing at a “slow rate” here — likely due to a combination of vaccination and prior infection.

“What it will do is seek out pockets of the population where the immunization rates are lower, where people haven’t been boosted and where there hasn’t been a lot of [Omicron infection] — those are the at-risk populations,” she said.

Dr. Lisa Salamon, an emergency room physician with the Scarborough Health Network in Toronto, said communities that are lagging behind on vaccinations, and those featuring lower-income residents in crowded housing or multi-generational homes, remain more at risk of household transmission and dire outcomes.

“My concern is, locally, there are going to be places that are overwhelmed that people just don’t care about,” she said.

“The general population doesn’t care if it doesn’t impact them.”

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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