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COVID-19 in B.C.: As number of cases continue to rise, province changes testing criteria – Straight.com

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While the number of COVID-19 cases continue to increase, B.C.’s provincial health officer provided some good news and also spoke about changes to testing.

Dr. Bonnie Henry announced today (March 23) that there have been 48 new cases since the last update made on Saturday (March 21) for a total of 472 cases in the province.

Of those cases, 248 are in the Vancouver Coastal Health region, 150 in the Fraser Health region, 39 on Vancouver Island, 30 in the Interior Health region, and five in the Northern Health region.

Of those, there are 33 patients in hospital, with 14 in intensive care units.

Dr. Henry stated that there are now six longterm care facilities with cases, with one new case reported at the German-Canadian Care Home and another new case reported at Delta View Care Centre. Both cases are staff members.

Tragically, three new deaths occurred—one at the Lynn Valley Care Centre, one at the Haro Park Centre, and one in the Fraser Health region—for a total of 13 deaths in the province.

The good news is that a total of 100 cases are now recovered. Dr. Henry stated that the majority of these cases experienced mild illness.

In addition, Dr. Henry stated that the backlog of cases mentioned last week should be resolved today or tomorrow.

She talked about how B.C. has changed testing criteria to focus on healthcare workers, longterm care, and clusters of cases in the community that are not linked to travel.

She stated that the majority of travellers who have returned to B.C. from outside Canada need to self-isolate, even with mild symptoms, and do not need to be tested.

“I know there has been some concern expressed that our change in our strategy for testing means that there’s a bunch of cases that we’re not actually getting to or that we’re not recognizing in the community, and while we do recognize that people who have symptoms and they’ve had an exposure may have this disease, it doesn’t mean everybody needs to be tested,” she explained.

She added that they will post “epidemiological-linked cases”, such as family members of an individual who has tested positive will be counted as cases.

Again, she also stressed the need to protect healthcare workers and both she and B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix also emphasized the need to maintain essential services, such as grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies, with safe measures in place.

“We have to engage in this fight at 100 percent and that means maintaining the essential services that are required to continue to function so that it is absolutely essential for grocery store workers to go to work and be available for work for the rest of us,” Dix stated.

B.C. health minister Adrian Dix noted that 22 nurses volunteered to assist at the Lynn Valley Care Centre, “which is an extraordinary thing”, he said. In addition, Dix said the number of beds in acute care have increased by 1,234 since March 20 while the number of beds in critical care have been increased by 177.

On March 20 and 21, Dr. Henry ordered all restaurants to end dining service and also ordered all personal-service establishments, such as salons and spas, to close. 

Information about COVID-19 in B.C. is available at the B.C. Centre for Disease Control website, and an online self-assessment tool is also available.

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Canada is expecting rise in Coronavirus deaths as job losses touch 1 million – International Business Times, Singapore Edition

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Canada is expecting the increase in the number of coronavirus deaths from the current 435 to as high as 22,000 by the time the pandemic ends, health officials stated on Thursday, while the economy suffered a loss of one million jobs last month.

The officials outlined two scenarios which are most likely to take place, showing that between 11,000 and 22,000 people will die. The total number of positive coronavirus cases ranged from 934,000 to 1.9 million.

The officials said they expected between 500 and 700 people in Canada to die from the coronavirus by April 16. There have been 18,447 positive diagnoses so far. “Models are not a crystal ball,” Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, told a briefing, saying it was too early to predict when the peak would be.

Canada may witness 22,000 deaths due to Coronavirus

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Tam said it was crucial that people continued to obey instructions to stay at home as much as possible. “While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada’s modeling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic,” she said. “We cannot prevent every death but we must prevent all the deaths that we can.”

Local governments across Canada have ordered non-essential businesses shut to combat the spread of the coronavirus, throwing millions out of work. Canada lost a record-breaking 1 million jobs in March while the unemployment rate soared to 7.8 percent, Statistics Canada said on Thursday, adding that the figures did not reflect the real toll. “Sticker shock for sure. This was about as bad as it could be,” said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.

More than five million Canadians had applied for all forms of federal emergency unemployment help since March 15, government data showed on Thursday, suggesting the real jobless rate is closer to 25 percent. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has so far announced a range of measures to help businesses that total around C$110 billion ($78.3 billion) in direct spending, or 5 percent of gross domestic product. Canada’s independent parliamentary budget officer predicted the budget deficit would balloon to C$184.2 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year from C$27.4 billion in the 2019‑2020 fiscal year.

(With agency inputs)

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Controls can keep Canadian COVID-19 deaths under 22,000, health agency says – Agassiz-Harrison Observer

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With strong control measures, the federal public health agency projects that 11,000 to 22,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months.

In a report released Thursday, (April 9) Public Health Agency of Canada says short-term estimates are more reliable, and it anticipates 500 to 700 deaths by the end of next week.

The agency released modelling data this morning with different possible scenarios, warning that what happens depends very much on how Canadians behave to keep the respiratory illness from spreading.

With poor containment measures, the death toll could be much, much higher, the agency says.

It says the COVID-19 battle in Canada is still in its early stages but Canada’s numbers of confirmed cases have been increasing more slowly than in other countries.

The agency the fight against the novel coronavirus will likely take many months and require cycles of tighter and weaker controls.

Later on Thursday (April 9), Chief medical officer Dr. TheresaTam said the “aspirational and our ambitious goal” was that just one per cent of the population is infected with COVID-19. With a population of 37.6 million, that would mean about 376,000 people would be infected.

Tam said there were 17,766 total confirmed cases of the virus and 461 deaths as of Thursday.

“I recognize there changes in our daily lives… are extremely difficult,” Tam said during a press conference in Ottawa.

She said the measures had “allowed the healthcare system to cope.”

She called on Canadians to make the upcoming long weekend a “staycation for the nation,” and stay home to celebrate with their household, or virtually with other friends and family.

Tam said health officials were evaluation the effect of measures like physical distancing and self-isolation daily.

“No one is gathering, really… we’re just trying to strengthen the message to Canadians that you should avoid all non-essential travel and stay at home as much as possible,” she said.

“We know that contact tracing is very key.”

READ MORE: COVID-19 predictions coming ‘soon’, but results will depend on how Canadians act: Trudeau

READ MORE: Wearing non-medical masks can stop spread of COVID-19 before symptoms start: Tam

READ MORE: Canadians awake to extra COVID-19 emergency benefit money, feds clarify changes

The Canadian Press


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Virus modelling estimates 11,000 to 22,000 Canadian deaths if physical distancing continues – The Globe and Mail

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Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam responds to a question during a news conference in Ottawa, on April 8, 2020.

Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

In the next year, between 11,000 and 22,000 Canadians could die as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, in what officials say are among the best-case scenarios for the disease.

The federal pandemic models released Thursday show that the country could see 22,580 to 31,850 cases by April 16, resulting in between 500 and 700 deaths.

Canada already has 19,291 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 435 confirmed deaths as a result of the disease.

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Disease modelling is meant to show what might happen as the illness spreads across Canada, and does not predict what will happen.

In reading the models, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, has warned they are not a “crystal ball,” and instead serve to inform decision-makers about where they need to put resources, the health system’s capacity to respond to the virus, and what other measures need to be put in place to further limit transmission.

At a technical briefing, Dr. Tam and her deputy, Dr. Howard Njoo, outlined three possible scenarios facing Canada over the next year.

With strong epidemic control measures, such as a high degree of physical distancing and a high per cent of testing and contact tracing, the models show the epidemic could last until the fall and infect between one and 10 per cent of the population. Officials say that is Canada’s best-case scenario.

The potential 11,000 to 22,000 range in deaths is based on an overall infection rate of between 2.5 and 5 per cent.

“We cannot prevent every death but we must prevent every death that we can,” Dr. Tam said, adding that the models show Canada must continue with its physical-distancing measures already in place.

If no policy measures, such as physical distancing, were put in place, the models show 70 and 80 per cent of people could become infected and more than 300,000 people could die.

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A middle-of-the-road scenario, where weaker controls would delay and reduce the peak, could lead to between 25 and 50 per cent of residents becoming infected with COVID-19 and more than 100,000 people could die. In that case, officials said the first wave of the pandemic could last until spring, 2021.

Dr. Tam said the models released by Ottawa show the first wave of the virus and warned that even when Canada is over the peak of the outbreak, some restrictions will need to stay in place to ensure the epidemic does not “reignite.”

She added that it is not clear yet when the pandemic will peak in different parts of the country, because no region is on the downward slope of its infection curve. Since at least half of all cases will come after the initial peak, the need for strong measures to reduce contact among individuals will need to continue for some time after it is clear that the first wave of the pandemic has crested, she said.

Nicholas Ogden, a senior scientist with the health agency, said that the fatality rate estimated for the Canadian figures – about 1.18 per cent of confirmed cases – was based on a range of factors and international data.

The federal government released its modelling after many provinces had done the same. On Wednesday, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador all released their models. British Columbia, Ontario, New Brunswick and Quebec have also already made their models public.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is benefitting from being hit by the global pandemic after many other countries. “For the time being,” he said, the health care system is able to cope with the spread of the virus but the country is “at a fork in the road.”

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“We have the chance to determine what our country looks like in the weeks and months to come,” Mr. Trudeau said, meaning Canadians will have to continues to stay home and remain disciplined.

“This will be the new normal until a vaccine is developed,” Mr. Trudeau said.

Experts say making the models public is a way for officials to build trust with citizens who are being asked to take restrictive and economically painful measures to blunt the impact of the virus.

Despite new restrictions on exports of medical goods from the United States, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says hundreds of thousands of masks have made it across the border. The Canadian Press

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