The Omicron variant’s spread may be slowing slightly, at least in some provinces where a government website monitoring virus projection estimates shows peak infections could be reached within a week.
In Manitoba, where the test positivity rate is now 48 per cent, this province is outpacing the rest of Canada in active COVID-19 cases. But infections could peak soon.
According to a government website that estimates trends in COVID-19 prevalence based on existing epidemiological information, Winnipeg is expected to start seeing cases decline in the next seven to 10 days.
The tool is designed for the Canadian Armed Forces to understand their risk level in different areas of Canada and internationally, and isn’t used to advise other aspects of government.
“The tool was made available globally to provide easy access to CAF medical advisors irrespective of their location and as part of the Government of Canada open data initiative,” a spokesperson told CTV News in an email.
“It is important to note that the numbers found in this model are not case numbers, but rather estimates based on existing epidemiological information.”
Projections on the website are similar for Toronto, Montreal and Halifax, where cases are also expected to drop in the coming weeks. B.C.’s top doctor says the COVID-19 peak there is a few weeks away.
“We may be entering soon into the place where we will see a decline,” Dr. Bonnie Henry said in an update Tuesday.
PEAK INDICATORS
University of Toronto epidemiologist Colin Furness told CTVNews.ca it is difficult to know when a peak is happening until it has actually passed.
“You can only find the peak in the rear-view mirror. We can make some guesses based on modelling about when we expect peaks to happen. But really, you don’t know until you’re past it,” Furness said in a telephone interview Wednesday.
Furness said there are some signals, known as leading indicators, which can show when a peak is nearing. He says these factors include adequate testing, positivity rates, and wastewater analysis.
However, with recent changes to COVID-19 testing criteria across the country, Furness says this indicator, as well as the positivity indicator, are skewed.
“If you say that only symptomatic people can get tested, your positive is going to go up. So you have to look very carefully if you want to interpret positivity as what changes if anything happens to the testing strategy, so that’s dicey,” he said.
While wastewater sampling can be a good leading indicator, Furness says the technique is still new and caution has to be taken on how the data is interpreted.
“When people are very sick, are they excreting a large amount of virus so it can look like there’s more or could we confuse two really sick people with 10 only very slightly sick people? There’s a lot we don’t really know about wastewater testing,” he said.
Furness noted that modelling data in December showed that the peak of this wave was expected to hit mid-January.
With this in mind, Furness said Canada is likely close to reaching the peak of the Omicron wave. However, he said it is important to remember that models are just estimates.
“[Models] can only reflect the limited understanding you have in the first place to sort of protect what might be the case,” he said.
“I’m guessing that we’re probably just about to peak in most places in Canada in the next week, two weeks, maybe a little bit longer than that.”
To know when Canada is on the other side of the peak, Furness said there will be a “sharp, rapid decline” similar to that of the incline into the peak as waves in communicable diseases mostly tend to be symmetrical.
“Once it infects everyone who [can] be infected… all of a sudden it runs out of oxygen and it falls off quite rapidly,” Furness said. “So we would expect to see not only a drop in the wastewater or positivity, it should be a rapid drop in new cases.”
AFTER THE PEAK
Peak Omicron may be close, according to estimates, but predicting what happens next is more difficult.
The decline could be quick, as seen in other countries like South Africa, or it may be slower. And hospitalizations, which lag behind case counts, will continue to rise.
Experts say that in the end, Omicron will have infected millions, but it’s unknown what impact this could have on immunity for the future.
“When you think about getting infected with Omicron, the thing we certainly can’t assume is that infection from Omicron is going to give us long term immunity against other variants that might emerge,” Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor at the University of Manitoba and Canada Research Chair in the molecular pathogenesis of emerging viruses, told CTV News. “That is something we do not know.”
Shaneen Robinson-Desjarlais knows firsthand that past infection doesn’t guarantee immunity; she has had COVID-19 twice in the past nine months.
“Having almost died from COVID, saying my prayers, and getting ready to say goodbye to my family — I was that sick,” she said.
She had just delivered her baby boy when she was hospitalized with the Beta variant. Struggling to breathe on her own, it took months for Robinson-Desjarlais to recover.
Last week, a rapid test showed a positive result, and body aches and exhaustion followed.
“I believe that because I was vaccinated, this variant took it easy on my body, which I was thankful for,” she said.
The severity of Omicron is also being debated. While believed to be more transmissible and able to evade some vaccine protection compared to the previous Delta variant, evidence has emerged that it may result in less severe illness and reduce the chance of being hospitalized.
Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said last week that severe illnesses due to the Omicron variant are not rising at the same “explosive rate” as case numbers. However, she noted that hospitalization rates are rising because of the “sudden acceleration of Omicron and enormous volume of cases.”
While the surge in cases has testing capacity stretched, resulting in underestimated case numbers, Tam said public health agencies are using other indicators like laboratory test-positivity rates to monitor the overall disease activity across the country.
“We can all help by reducing our contacts to get us through this difficult time that much faster,” Tam said. “This might feel like a double marathon that we didn’t sign up for, but despite feeling tired, we should have a sense of achievement for the ground we’ve covered so far.”
With files from CTVNews.ca’s Alexandra Mae Jones and Rachel Aiello
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
