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COVID-19: Omicron risks high, federal modelling suggests – CTV News

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TORONTO —
Keep your holiday gatherings small is the messaging from Canada’s top doctor, as new federal modelling points to a resurgence in COVID-19 infections in the coming weeks that could be further accelerated should the new Omicron variant take over.

The Delta variant remains the dominant strain in Canada and around the world, said Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam, but the spread of Omicron is increasing globally. In Canada, there are early signs of community spread.

While most of the 87 confirmed Omicron cases in Canada have been traced back to international travel and close contacts, cases with no known links to travel are starting to be reported, Tam noted during a press conference on Friday.

“Keeping private gatherings small is quite important at this point while we learn more,” said Tam.

“Gathering with a smaller number of people in well ventilated places – all of those layers of protection … can still enable us to have a good time while being safer and being precautionary.”

Travelling within Canada would be the “better choice” versus international travel, she added.

The current rise in new cases is primarily driven by Ontario and Quebec, with both provinces experiencing numbers not seen since spring. Should transmission rates increase by 15 per cent, or if Omicron takes hold under current levels of transmission, then Canada could see cases skyrocket to record levels above 10,000 cases before January, modelling charts show.

“We must approach the coming weeks with an abundance of caution and at the same time, we must be prepared to act quickly to control the spread at the first sign of rapidly accelerating cases,” said Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo.

So far, all documented cases involving Omicron in Canada have been asymptomatic or mild, and there is considerable uncertainty around the variant’s ability to evade immunity and cause severe illness, health officials said, but a rapid increase in cases could still strain the health-care system.

“That model doesn’t model the severity. But even if the proportion of those who get Omicron who gets severely ill is tiny – if you get enough cases, you still have enough severe outcomes to impact your hospitals and your ICUs,” Tam said.

Canada’s Rt, or effective reproduction number, has been back above one for the last five weeks, indicating that the epidemic is in a growth pattern, federal data shows, with the Delta variant accounting for more than 90 per cent of the cases.

OMICRON UNCERTAINTY

Despite the many unknowns around the Omicron variant, including whether it poses a higher or lower risk of severe illness and death, preliminary data indicates that it has the potential to spread faster than the highly transmissible Delta variant.

In South Africa, cases have climbed at a much faster rate with Omicron compared to previous waves.

While vaccines are expected to still provide protection against the new variant, scientists are still investigating the level of effectiveness.

“The Omicron variant of concern is a cruel reminder that a global epidemiological situation can change quickly. We all need to be prepared for that,” said Minister of Health Jean-Yves Duclos in a press conference on Friday.


Source: Public Health Agency of Canada

VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS

With 80 per cent of the eligible population in Canada fully vaccinated, infection rates remain highest among children under the age of 12, a group that only recently became eligible for shots.

The size of outbreaks in schools and childcare settings remain small, however, at fewer than five cases, Tam said. In total, there have been over 380,000 reported cases in children up to 19 years of age, with less than one per cent involving severe illness.

Tam and Njoo continued to encourage vaccinating children aged five and up and providing boosters for those aged 18 and over, emphasizing that vaccines along with protective health measures will help control transmission and would significantly reduce risks of resurgence in 2022.

The risk of being hospitalized remains significantly lower for those who are fully vaccinated individuals, officials reiterated, noting that those who are unvaccinated between the ages of 12 and 59 are 32 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than those who are fully vaccinated. For those above 60, they are 16 times more likely to be hospitalized.

Despite the warning about the coming weeks, Tam said that vaccines have provided substantial protection from infection and severe outcomes and dampened the impact of the delta-driven wave this past fall.

“This time last year, we were experiencing double the number of daily cases and more than double the number of people with COVID-19 being treated in hospitals and in intensive care daily. Most importantly, daily reported deaths are 82 per cent lower than this time last year,” Tam said.

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Earthquakes shake deep below northern British Columbia coast

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HAIDA GWAII, BRITISH COLUMBIA – The northern British Columbia coast was rattled by two earthquakes below the ocean floor on Sunday.

Natural Resources Canada said the first quake hit at 3:20 p.m. and measured 6, while the second came about an hour later and measured 4.5.

It says no damage was reported and none would be expected.

The U.S. Geological Survey set the magnitude of the quake at 6.5, and says it was centred at about the midway point between Haida Gwaii and Port McNeill on the northern end of Vancouver Island.

The American Tsunami warning centre said no tsunami was expected to be generated.

Ben Wilson, the food and beverage manager at the Willows Golf Course in Sandspit, B.C., says he was home on his break when he felt the ground shake, long enough to know what it was, but not long enough to concern him.

“This one was definitely more noticeable than some, but not by any means, the biggest one I’ve ever felt here.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Carbon pricing to cause economic ‘nuclear winter,’ Poilievre tells his MPs

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OTTAWA – Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre signaled the Liberals’ carbon price and the economy will remain his prime target when Parliament resumes this week.

He painted a dystopian picture during a Sunday morning speech to his caucus, saying the Liberal government’s plans to increase the price would cause a “nuclear winter” for the economy.

“There would be mass hunger and malnutrition with a tax this high … our seniors would have to turn the heat down to 14 or 13 C just to make it through the winter,” Poilievre said.

“Inflation would run rampant and people would not be able to leave their homes or drive anywhere.”

The Conservatives are the last of the major parties to have a fall strategy session after the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois all met last week.

Poilievre has maintained his party’s commanding lead in the polls throughout the summer, and is preparing to make another push to topple the Liberal government as early as this week.

All parties are adjusting their autumn plans after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ended the agreement that was ensuring Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government would stay in power.

Poilievre has promised to bring in notice of a non-confidence motion at his first opportunity, and that could happen as early as this week. The Tories would likely need the support of both the NDP and the Bloc to pass the motion, which appears unlikely.

Last week, Singh criticized both the Liberals and the Conservatives over their approaches to fighting climate change, but wouldn’t say whether he would keep the consumer carbon price if his party forms government after the next election.

Trudeau responded by accusing Singh of caving to political pressure from Poilievre.

Poilievre has not been fully clear on whether he would cancel both the consumer carbon levy, charged to individuals and smaller businesses, as well as the separate system that applies to big industry.

In his speech Sunday, Poilievre took shots at both Trudeau and Singh. “This crazy carbon tax obsession of Justin Trudeau and the NDP is an existential threat to our economy and our way of life,” he said.

Poilievre said despite the NDP pulling out of the supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals, Singh isn’t committing to voting to bring down the government and trigger an election.

“Now on the eve of a byelection, sellout Jagmeet Singh wants you to believe he’s a changed man. He’s a totally new person. He’s forgotten about everything he’s been doing for two years.”

As Parliament resumes on Monday, the political mood of the country will be tested in two byelections.

The NDP are trying to fend off the Conservatives in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona and the Liberals are running a three-way race against the NDP and the Bloc in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun.

In a June byelection, the Conservatives scored a surprise win in the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto—St. Paul’s.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Looking for the next mystery bestseller? This crime bookstore can solve the case

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WINNIPEG – Some 250 coloured tacks pepper a large-scale world map among bookshelves at Whodunit Mystery Bookstore.

Estonia, Finland, Japan and even Fenwick, Ont., have pins representing places outside Winnipeg where someone has ordered a page-turner from the independent bookstore that specializes in mystery and crime fiction novels.

For 30 years, the store has been offering fans of Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot or Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes a place to get lost in whodunits both old and new.

Jack and Wendy Bumsted bought the shop in the Crescentwood neighbourhood in 2007 from another pair of mystery lovers.

The married couple had been longtime customers of the store. Wendy Bumsted grew up reading Perry Mason novels while her husband was a historian with vast knowledge of the crime fiction genre.

At the time, Jack Bumsted was retiring from teaching at the University of Manitoba when he was looking for his next venture.

“The bookstore came up and we bought it, I think, within a week,” Wendy Bumsted said in an interview.

“It never didn’t seem like a good idea.”

In the years since the Bumsteds took ownership, the family has witnessed the decline in mail-order books, the introduction of online retailers, a relocation to a new space next to the original, a pandemic and the death of beloved co-owner Jack Bumsted in 2020.

But with all the changes that come with owning a small business, customers continue to trust their next mystery fix will come from one of the shelves at Whodunit.

Many still request to be called about books from specific authors, or want to be notified if a new book follows their favourite format. Some arrive at the shop like clockwork each week hoping to get suggestions from Wendy Bumsted or her son on the next big hit.

“She has really excellent instincts on what we should be getting and what we should be promoting,” Micheal Bumsted said of his mother.

Wendy Bumsted suggested the store stock “Thursday Murder Club,” the debut novel from British television host Richard Osman, before it became a bestseller. They ordered more copies than other bookstores in Canada knowing it had the potential to be a hit, said Michael Bumsted.

The store houses more than 18,000 new and used novels. That’s not including the boxes of books that sit in Wendy Bumsted’s tiny office, or the packages that take up space on some of the only available seating there, waiting to be added to the inventory.

Just as the genre has evolved, so has the Bumsteds’ willingness to welcome other subjects on their shelves — despite some pushback from loyal customers and initially the Bumsted patriarch.

For years, Jack Bumsted refused to sell anything outside the crime fiction genre, including his own published books. Instead, he would send potential buyers to another store, but would offer to sign the books if they came back with them.

Wendy Bumsted said that eventually changed in his later years.

Now, about 15 per cent of the store’s stock is of other genres, such as romance or children’s books.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced them to look at expanding their selection, as some customers turned to buying books through the store’s website, which is set up to allow purchasers to get anything from the publishers the Bumsteds have contracts with.

In 2019, the store sold fewer than 100 books online. That number jumped to more than 3,000 in 2020, as retailers had to deal with pandemic lockdowns.

After years of running a successful mail-order business, the store was able to quickly adapt when it had to temporarily shut its doors, said Michael Bumsted.

“We were not a store…that had to figure out how to get books to people when they weren’t here.”

He added being a community bookstore with a niche has helped the family stay in business when other retailers have struggled. Part of that has included building lasting relationships.

“Some people have put it in their wills that their books will come to us,” said Wendy Bumsted.

Some of those collections have included tips on traveling through Asia in the early 2000s or the history of Australian cricket.

Micheal Bumsted said they’ve had to learn to be patient with selling some of these more obscure titles, but eventually the time comes for them to find a new home.

“One of the great things about physical books is that they can be there for you when you are ready for them.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 15, 2024.



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