“The reality is that as all of the restrictions come off in terms of masking and the other measures which have been in place for some period of time, we can expect that more cases are going to be out there,” said Dr. Steve Hrudey, chair of the research advisory group of the Canadian Water Network COVID 19 Wastewater Coalition.
“The next few days to weeks are going to be important to watch,” he said.
2:05 COVID-19: What is wastewater testing, and how effective is it?
COVID-19: What is wastewater testing, and how effective is it? – Jan 22, 2022
The wastewater signals are correlating with the reported infections through testing, but they paint a more accurate and full picture of how prevalent COVID-19 actually is in the community, experts say.
People infected with COVID-19 can shed the coronavirus through their stool, even if they do not have any symptoms, making the testing of a community’s sewage an important tool that can work in tandem with clinical testing data, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).
“Wastewater testing provides a true picture of COVID-19 community health, especially in the current situation when resources for clinical testing may be limited in some areas,” said Anna Maddison, a PHAC spokesperson, in an emailed statement to Global News.
So what is Canada’s sewage water telling us about the latest COVID-19 spread?
In the province of Ontario, following a dip in February, COVID-19 cases started spiking in early March, coinciding with the province’s phased reopening.
This is according to the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, which is monitoring data from across 101 wastewater treatment plants, pumping stations and sewer sheds in 34 public health units.
Data source: Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table
Dr. Peter Juni, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at the University of Toronto and scientific director of Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, said since Tuesday they have seen a “relatively steep increase” in coronavirus prevalence in the wastewater consistently in all regions in the province.
He said together with test positivity, the wastewater data is an early indicator that “as expected, we’re seeing a resurgence now.”
“There is a lag between what we are seeing in wastewater and in case counts,” Juni said.
“It remains to be seen how much of what we’re seeing in wastewater will eventually translate also into hospital occupancy,” he added.
Juni said since only 10 per cent of all infections are reported through testing, the actual case count in the province is likely 10 times higher.
“These 2,000 cases are more like 20,000 cases. In fact, when we use wastewater directly to triangulate case counts, we estimate that we’re at between 20 and 25,000 cases of infections daily,” he said.
It’s a similar story in Alberta, where an upward trend started in early March, according to wastewater samples collected, processed and reported by teams at the University of Alberta and the University of Calgary.
This data covers more than 80 per cent of Alberta’s population.
Hrudey, professor emeritus at the University of Alberta, said recent data does suggest that cases are climbing back up in the province, but not dramatically so as of yet.
All of Calgary and the surrounding area.
Data Source: Centre for Health Informatics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary
Saskatchewan
Researchers at the University of Saskatchewan are keeping a close eye on the wastewater trends of COVID-19 in Saskatoon, Prince Albert and North Battleford.
As of March 16, the viral load in Saskatoon’s wastewater increased by 66.3 per cent compared to the weekly average of the previous week.
Data Source: University of Saskatoon
“This increase in viral RNA load is indicative of an increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections in Saskatoon, which — in a partially vaccinated population — may or may not be reflected by new case numbers in upcoming weeks,” the USak researchers noted.
“The trend over the last three weeks has been increasing which indicates a double wave for the Omicron wave driven by the BA.2 subvariant,” they said.
In Prince Alberta, the viral load in wastewater was up by 96.1 per cent and in North Battleford by 93.2 per cent, data showed.
British Columbia
However, in British Columbia, the increase is less prominent for now.
Of the five regions being monitored by the B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC) and Metro Vancouver, COVID-19 prevalence was only seen rising in Fraser and North Shore.
Data Source: B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC)
What the sewage data can tell us about COVID-19
Experts say wastewater surveillance has proven to be an effective tool for tracking COVID-19 trends and predicting future outbreaks.
“When you’re using wastewater surveillance, it’s a tool that helps you recognize very early how much community activity there is before people start becoming sick,” said Dr. Donald Vinh, an infectious disease specialist and medical microbiologist at the McGill University Health Centre (MUHC).
It is also a harbinger of increased hospitalizations and deaths, he said.
Going forward, wastewater monitoring is going to be very important, both in the short term for COVID-19 and in the longer term for other types of germs, Vinh said.
However, this type of surveillance also has its limitations as it does not indicate which individuals, households or age groups are infected, he said.
Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.
“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.
“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.
Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.
Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.
Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.
The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.
As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”
“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.
The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.
It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.
Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.
The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.
“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”
Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.
“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.
“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.
“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
