COVID: Canada may be in for a spring wave, experts say - CTV News | Canada News Media
Connect with us

News

COVID: Canada may be in for a spring wave, experts say – CTV News

Published

 on


As provinces lift COVID-19 public health measures, some experts are warning that Canada may experience another wave of infections this spring, with wastewater data in many regions showing an uptick in cases due in part to the Omicron subvariant BA.2.

Officials in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and B.C. say wastewater analysis suggests COVID-19 infections are beginning to climb again. However, experts say it’s not yet clear whether Canada’s next wave will be a surge or a ripple.

Infectious disease expert Dr. Isaac Bogoch told CTV’s Your Morning on Thursday that current modelling data suggests parts of Canada may experience a “bump” in cases this spring.

“It could be a wave, it could be a smaller wave… It’s not entirely clear what’s on deck, but we’ll probably have a rise in cases and we know that whenever there’s a rise in cases, there’s usually this corresponding rise, sadly, in hospitalizations and deaths,” Bogoch said.

Public health officials tracking prevalence of COVID-19 through municipal wastewater testing in Ontario say they’re seeing a “sustained increase” in the viral signal in a variety of locations.

The increase comes after the province rolled back mask mandates and other restrictions including capacity limits for many indoor spaces and vaccine passports. Other provinces that have also recently eased restrictions, such as Alberta and B.C., are also seeing an uptick in viral load through wastewater data.

Experts say this rise is expected with the easing of public health measures, but note the simultaneous emergence of the Omicron subvariant BA.2 that’s now spreading across regions in Asia and Europe is complicating matters.

While most agree that Canada’s immunization rates should blunt the impacts of the so-called “stealth” subvariant, some worry that decreased public health vigilance could clear a path for BA.2 to drive up infections and hospitalizations.

In Quebec, officials say the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron now accounts for half of new infections in the province, while Alberta Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said Wednesday BA.2 is now the dominant strain of Omicron in her province.

VARIANTS AND VACCINATION

Canada’s chief public health officer suggested last week that the country may be protected from the worst of the COVID-19 resurgence, instead predicting a spring “blip” as public health measures are lifted.

While evidence suggests that BA.2 is more transmissible than its Omicron predecessor, the subvariant is spreading at a relatively slow rate in Canada so far, said Dr. Theresa Tam.

It doesn’t appear to cause more severe illness than other variants, she said, but international data suggests BA.2 targets people who aren’t protected by vaccination or previous exposure to the Omicron variant.

That means Canada’s high immunization uptake should keep hospitalizations at manageable levels even if cases rise, said Tam.

However, experts say the uptake of third vaccine doses, which has shown to be crucial in in protecting against severe outcomes from Omicron infection, is lagging behind first and second doses.

Dr. Brian Conway, an infectious disease expert and medical director of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre, previously told CTVNews.ca that vaccination plays a major role in preventing the surfacing of new variants.

Conway said the fewer people that are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, the greater the potential for a new variant to not only emerge, but to spread.

“Variants are dependent on the virus replicating in real life, so the more susceptible hosts you have, the more virus you will have,” he said. “Since it replicates so much, just by randomness, it will develop some new variants that will survive.”

Bogoch said BA.2 will likely not be the last variant of COVID-19 and others will “most certainly” continue to emerge. However, he said it will be more difficult for the next variant to get a foothold in Canada because most people have immunity after being infected with Omicron, or they have been vaccinated, or a combination of both.

The “goal” is to build up that community level protection, so the next variant or wave “doesn’t impact us as significantly as it has in the past,” he explained.

Despite this, experts say it’s important to note that vaccination is only somewhat efficient at protecting against infection, particularly when caused by the Omicron variant.

A recent study conducted in England found the efficacy of two Pfizer vaccine doses against symptomatic disease brought about by Omicron was 65.5 per cent after two to four weeks, before falling to 8.8 per cent 25 or more weeks after vaccination. With a booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine, protection increased to 67.2 per cent after two to four weeks, but also began to wane as more time went on.

Experts say this is concerning for those who are most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 outcomes, such as people who are older or immunocompromised. These groups were prioritized for early boosters in many parts of the country, thus the immunity provided by these doses are more likely to have waned in the months since. This has spurred talks of a potential fourth dose for some.

Because of this, experts say public health measures also play a critical role in protecting against infection, and some restrictions could be re-imposed in certain provinces if hospitalization rates and deaths start to surge in the coming weeks.

But Bogoch said this may be difficult given peoples’ attitudes following two years of pandemic restrictions. He suggests Canadians continue to follow those measures that make themselves feel safe, such as wearing a mask and limiting social circles, despite these restrictions no longer being mandated.

“I think when we look at… the general mood, I think many people are done with COVID, but of course we know that COVID’s still here, it’s still around,” Bogoch said. “We also know now how to keep it in check.”

Just because Canada is expected to see a rise in Omicron subvariant cases similar to parts of Asia and Europe, Bogoch said this doesn’t necessarily mean Canadian hospitals will be overwhelmed again.

“I think we have the tools to keep this in check. Put on your mask, get vaccinated, we can get through this,” he said.

With files from The Canadian Press and CTVNews.ca writer Jennifer Ferreira

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

News

STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

Published

 on

 

NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Source link

Continue Reading

News

World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

Published

 on

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

News

Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

Published

 on

 

Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version