COVID plateau may last into April; medical officer cautious – Belleville Intelligencer

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Hastings and Prince Edward Counties’ top public health official is expressing guarded optimism about declining rates of COVID-19, saying cases are declining but there remains the potential for future variants and spikes.

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“If there’s anything I’ve learned … we just have to keep monitoring the trends over time and staying humble in the face of the pandemic,” medical officer of health Dr. Ethan Toumishey said.

He spoke one day after the Ontario government dropped some COVID-19 regulations, moving into another step of the province’s reopening. Premier Doug Ford is among the government officials who have said the government may lift masking regulations within a few weeks.

“I do support the approach of the province” in lifting the requirements for vaccination passports and capacity limits for buildings and gatherings, Toumishey said. He took no position on masking except to say it’s important that measures mirror local epidemiology – in short, how active COVID-19 is in a given area.

Hastings Prince Edward Public Health announced on Wednesday two more deaths of people with COVID-19. And on Tuesday, health unit data showed, the region’s count of active high-risk cases fell below 200 for the first time this year.

A total of 41 people have now died of or with COVID-19 since the pandemic began; the latest two were a person between ages 60 and 69 and one age 70 or older. The health unit does not release further details.

Its Wednesday COVID-19 update listed 81 new in high-risk settings compared to 68 on Monday. There were 191 active cases in those settings versus Monday’s 237.

The number of outbreaks in high-risk settings was unchanged at 12.

Hospitalizations declined from 25 on Monday to 23 on Wednesday. Two people were in intensive care, a number unchanged since Feb. 21.

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Due to Ontario’s limiting of molecular COVID-19 testing to high-risk settings, the actual total numbers of outbreaks, new cases and active cases is not known.

The number of active high-risk cases has been in decline since January, when the region saw the peak of the pandemic’s fifth wave. But the case count also hit a plateau in February.

The novel coronavirus is “still having an effect” on the region, he said.

Asked about the numbers which are known, Toumishey said, “Probably for March we’re going to continue to see similar numbers.”

He again thanked everyone who had followed public health regulations and those who had been vaccinated.

“The better spot we’re in is all due to their efforts.”

Reopening may cause increase

Yet the doctor also cautioned the reopening process “will probably affect” the local statistics.

“We are seeing more reopening, more contact, more mobility in the community.” Past periods of increased contact and mobility have been linked to more transmission of the virus, provincial officials have said.

He said a further decline may not occur until a few weeks after Tuesday’s reopening and after the arrival, possibly in April, of better weather. Respiratory viruses such as COVID-19 circulate more when people are indoors, he and other doctors have said.

Toumishey said he still “strongly encourages” everyone to be vaccinated.

“As we continue to see COVID-19 circulating in the community, the need to protect your health is still very much there,” he said.

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“Stay up to date on your vaccines.”

After a period of outreach involving mobile and pop-up vaccination programs, he said, “we’ll be winding down our mass (vaccination) sites.” He did not provide a timeline for the change.

“We will continue to provide access to the vaccine,” Toumishey said. The local rates of vaccination have been increasingly, but only incrementally.

Among this week’s vaccination statistics, only the number of people ages five and older with at least two doses had changed. It increased from 82 per cent on Monday to 83 per cent on Wednesday. Among adults, the rate was 88 per cent.

But only 51 per cent of people ages five and older and 61 per cent of adults have boosters.

Toumishey said the region has “very broad coverage” of vaccination.

Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Kieran Moore, has said at least 90 per cent of the population needed to have full vaccination to prevent future pandemic waves. The province still defines full vaccination as two doses of vaccine, though Moore, Toumishey and other experts have advised getting third and – for the most vulnerable – fourth doses.

“I think we’re going to continue to see a downward trend” in vaccination, board chair Jo-Anne Albert said. She said the lack of need to have vaccination certificates could make people less likely to seek vaccines.