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COVID variants may push cases to 20K/day by March – Brandon Sun

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Health-care workers wait in line at a UHN COVID-19 vaccine clinic in Toronto on Thursday, January 7, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

New federal forecasts project that COVID-19 variants could fuel a potential third wave that would eclipse its predecessors if Canada doesn’t double down on the strict protocols that have reduced infections.

The Public Health Agency of Canada released modelling Friday suggesting that while infections continue to decline nationally, the spread of virus mutations threatens to reverse that progress.

Canada’s chief public health officer says there are currently fewer than 33,000 active cases in Canada, a 60 per cent drop compared to a month ago.

But with more contagious variants now detected in all provinces, Dr. Theresa Tam says Canada may not be able to avoid a rapid acceleration of daily cases, predicted to hit 20,000 by mid-March, without continued vigilance.

“We are at a critical point in the pandemic and our efforts have begun to tip the balance in our favour,” Tam told reporters.

“Protecting our progress and limiting the impact of variants of concern will require stronger action.”

Even with current restrictions, the country could see infections increase by more than 10,000 per day in April, according to the modelling.

At a news conference Friday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he has spoken to provincial premiers about a cautious approach to lifting restrictions.

Trudeau also said Canada received a shipment of more than 400,000 doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine on Wednesday — the largest delivery to date.

He noted the vaccine delivery is set to rapidly increase, as the provinces and territories prepare to roll out almost a million and a half doses of COVID-19 vaccines over the next three weeks in the race against the variants.

While it’s hard to make exact predictions, Tam said the concern is that Canada could be heading down a rapid growth trajectory that would outpace daily increases of roughly 8,000 new cases recorded in early January.

The current national average of 2,900 new cases per day is 60 per cent higher than the peak of the first wave, she added.

“We’ve been saying all along that if we ease measures too soon, the epidemic will resurge even stronger. But with highly contagious variants in our midst, the threat of uncontrolled epidemic growth is significantly elevated,” said Tam.

“Measures must be stronger, stricter and sustained long enough to suppress rapid epidemic growth of variants of concern.”

The variants are approximately 50 per cent more transmissible and linked to more severe disease outcomes, Tam noted.

Of particular concern is the B117 variant, which was first detected in the U.K., and has since spread to more than 85 countries, becoming the dominant virus in several European nations, said Tam.

“This is one variant where we may expect it to become the new sort of circulating virus,” she said.

The other variants — such as those first identified in South Africa, and Brazil — haven’t spread as widely across the globe, said Tam.

But even as these strains spread across the country, Tam said Friday’s forecasts indicate that Canada could control the outbreak with enhanced public health measures, such as restrictions, closures and community-based control protocols.

With several provinces lifting restrictions, Tam urged authorities to take a slow and steady approach toward reopening, or it won’t be long before they’ll have to reimpose strict measures.

“What you want to do is to keep avoiding this yo-yo-ing effect of up and down,” she said. “You need to avoid complete lockdowns and curfews and all of those things by trying to maintain a strong level of public health measures.”

“You can’t just keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 19, 2021.

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Canada to donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to combat mpox outbreaks in Africa

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The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.

It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.

Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”

Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.

Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.

On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.

Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”

But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”

“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.

Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.

Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.

Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.

“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.

“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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