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The Calgary Real Estate Board is expecting home sales to remain above historical levels in 2022 after a record-breaking 2021, but the big issue will be supply.
‘There’s a lot of factors that are still supporting that sales activity and that demand growth’
The Calgary Real Estate Board is expecting home sales to remain above historical levels in 2022 after a record-breaking 2021, but the big issue will be supply.
While sales likely will not grow at the same level as last year, the CREB is predicting price growth to hit four per cent this year after hitting eight per cent last year.
“We expect sales activity will come off of those record levels but remain relatively strong,” Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB chief economist, said during the organization’s annual conference Tuesday. “There’s a lot of factors that are still supporting that sales activity and that demand growth.”
Calgary began the new year with about two months’ supply, the lowest since 2006. The shortage is not due to a lack of people looking to sell, with a 34 per cent increase in new houses on the market in 2021. Sales, however, increased by 71 per cent.
There is also a lack of stock in surrounding communities such as Airdrie and Okotoks, which have become attractive destinations for those looking for quieter communities with more affordable real estate.
Lurie said she expects continued growth in prices to bring more houses to market, but it will take several months to achieve balance. She noted they expected that gap to begin to close at the end of 2021, but then had massive sales in December.
Low supply numbers could be aided by the record number of new housing starts in 2021, many of which will be completed this year.
She also said pressure on the market will continue to build through economic recovery, improved energy markets and technological and financial diversification, which is expected to increase migration to Calgary and also improve the rental market.
Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek said the city is focused on aiding this recovery, including prioritizing a rejuvenation of downtown.
“While it has been hit hard, we still are aware that a strong core is essential to our economy for jobs and to fund city services that we rely on every single day,” she said.
There are a few factors that will limit growth, however.
Chief among these are inflation and interest rates. Interest rates have been low throughout the pandemic but are expected to be raised by the Bank of Canada as soon as Wednesday. Lurie cautioned the increase may not come just yet, and said she has seen forecasts ranging between an increase of one and two per cent.
“This is something that tends to slow down housing demand,” she said. “When you have rate increases, that naturally changes what people can afford and it is one of those main factors why we don’t expect sales will continue to maintain that record pace.”
She added it could lead to a busy spring market as people attempt to buy before rates increase.
Lurie also said the unpredictability of the ongoing pandemic could be a factor.
Twitter: @JoshAldrich03
TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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