Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Like Scotiabank Monday, Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta thinks now is the time to add energy stocks.
Mr. Gupta also provided a list of top picks which includes two Canadian stocks,
“We continue to believe that in a post Russia-Ukraine conflict world, we are short of crude oil, refined products and natural gas. We estimate global oil market was undersupplied by ~1.5MMb/d in 2Q 22 and will remain undersupplied by ~0.8MMb/d in 2H 22 and this will continue to support higher prices in the near-term. While IEA still believes markets will be somewhat balanced in 2022/2023, in our opinion, IEA is overestimating supply growth from certain regions (including OPEC) and still underestimating total global demand… World is short of refining capacity and we expect US refiners will likely be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that as European peers struggle to source replacement of Russian barrels … Our favorite names… also highlight investment cases for our favorite names. Integrated oil – XOM, CVX, SU [Suncor Energy Inc.] and CVE [Cenovus Energy Inc.]. Upstream – COP, OVV and CHK. Midstream – LNG, PAA and TRGP. Refiners – VLO, MPC, DINO, PSX and VTNR.”
Wells Fargo strategist Chris Haverland details what I think is the biggest short term equity market risk – earnings downgrades,
“After growing by 9% in the first quarter of 2022, S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to have grown by 5.7% in the second quarter of 2022 … It would be the slowest quarter for growth since the fourth quarter of 2020… The energy, industrials, and materials sectors should lead the way with energy earnings expected to growth by a remarkable 205%. Excluding the energy sector, overall S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to contract by 2%… Forward guidance will be key as many companies continue to deal with rising input prices, a tight labour market and continued global supply chain constraints.”
“WF on Q2 earnings” – (research excerpt) Twitter
The longer-term outlook for copper stocks is bright because of electrification, but it would be hard to tell that as miners and the commodity price continue to fall. The RBC research team discussed the trend,
“The North American Base Metals have almost fully caught up to the copper price and are now down 6% year-to-date (copper -11.7% ytd) but are still outperforming the broader market (S&P 500 -18.7% ytd, TSX -9.4% ytd). The North American Base Metals stocks are trading at an 18% discount to NAV, above trough levels around a 40% discount but near the historical avg. discount of 22% (see page 6). While the volatility could continue, we believe this pull back creates an opportunity to add high quality names which stand to benefit from the positive copper fundamentals in the coming years.
Diversion: “9 Invasive Plants You Should Rip to Shreds” – Gizmodo
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Ageism: Does it Exist or Is It a Form of ‘I’m a Victim!’ Mentality? [ Part 4 ]
How you think is everything.
This is the fourth and final column of a 4-part series dealing with ageism while job hunting.
The standard advice given by “experts” to overcome ageism revolves contorting yourself to “fit in,” “be accepted,” and “be invited.” Essentially, their advice is to conceal your age and hope the employer throughout the hiring process won’t figure it out and hire you.
It takes a lot of time and energy to be accepted into places where you aren’t welcome, and it can be heartbreaking.
Finding an employer who accepts you for who you are, regardless of age, gender, race, or whatever, is the key to happy employment. There’s no better feeling than the feeling you’re welcomed. Therefore, my advice to job seekers is: Be your best self and let the chips fall where they may. Doing your best and accepting the outcome will give you a Zen-like sense of freedom.
An attempt to infer someone’s biases based on their actions is usually just an assumption based on what you want to believe. If it benefits you to think someone is practicing ageism (e.g., a convenient excuse), then you’ll believe you’re the victim of ageism.
The fact is you don’t know what the hiring manager’s behind the scene looks like. The entire company’s leadership team judges their hiring decisions. Your fit with current employees needs to be considered. Budget constraints exist. Let’s not forget the biggest hiring influencer, and their past hiring mistakes, which they don’t want to repeat.
While reviewing resumes for a senior accounting position, the hiring manager thinks, “The Centennial College graduates I’ve hired didn’t last six months. While Bob has plenty of experience, he’s a Centennial College alumnus. Hiring another six months quitter won’t look good on me.” “Karen has worked for FrobozzCo International. If I recall, the company reportedly funneled money into offshore accounts to avoid paying taxes. I wonder if Karen was involved.”
Association experiences contribute to most biases. You know the saying, “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.” If you met five rude redheads in a row, the next one will also be rude, right? The human brain is wired to look for patterns and predict future behavior based on those patterns. Call it a survival skill. When we first meet someone, we try to predict what behavior to expect from them using past experiences.
This quick assessment is why hiring managers decide, within as little as two minutes, whether a candidate is worth their time. While it’s important to try and make a good first impression (READ: image), you have no control over how others interpret it.
Bottom-line: You can’t control another person’s biases.
Based on how I hire, and conversations with hiring managers, I believe the following to be true. An employer is more interested in the results you can deliver for them than your age or whatever “ism” you believe is against you.
Can employers afford to pass up qualified candidates who could contribute to their bottom line? Of course not! (Okay, it’s “unlikely.”) You’ll be in demand if you can demonstrate a track record of adding value to your employers.
Having the belief that your age prevents you from finding the employment you want is a paralyzing belief. Ageism exists for all ages, which I think many people use as a crutch.
“They said I was overqualified. That’s ageism!”
“They hired someone younger than me. That’s ageism!”
“They said I wasn’t experienced enough. That’s ageism!”
Get over yourself!
Employers can hire whomever they deem to be the best fit for their business. It’s self-righteous to judge someone else’s biases (READ: preferences), especially when their biases don’t serve your interests. Let’s say, for example, you’re 52 years old, and the hiring manager prefers candidates between 45 and 55 (Yes, I know such hiring managers), and they hire you. Would you call out the hiring manager’s bias that worked in your favor?
If you believe your age is an obstacle, here’s my advice: Break the fourth wall. If you sense your age is the elephant in the room, put your age on the table and see what happens. When interviewing, I always mention, early in, that I’ve been managing call centers since 1996. I then let my interviewer do the mental math and wrestle with any age bias they may have. As I mentioned in my last column, the employer most likely Googled you and has a good idea of your age. Therefore, since you were vetted to determine if you were interview-worthy, tell yourself that your age is irrelevant.
When interviewing, don’t focus on “isms.” Doing so makes them your reality. Instead, focus on the problems the position you’re interviewing for is meant to solve.
Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers advice on searching for a job. You can send Nick your questions at email@example.com
CMHC reports annual pace of housing starts up 1.1 per cent in July – CP24
The Canadian Press
Published Tuesday, August 16, 2022 9:02AM EDT
Last Updated Tuesday, August 16, 2022 9:02AM EDT
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the annual pace of housing starts in July edged higher compared with June despite a slowdown in urban starts.
The housing agency says the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts in July was 275,329 units, an increase of 1.1 per cent from June.
The annual rate of urban starts was down 0.8 per cent at 254,371 units in July, while multi-unit urban starts fell 0.3 per cent to 195,987 units.
The pace of single-detached urban starts dropped 2.3 per cent to 58,384 units.
Meanwhile, rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 20,958 units.
The six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates was 264,426 units in July, up from 257,862 in June.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 16, 2022.
Recall: Baby rocker, swing recalled over strangulation risks – CTV News
Two infant products, manufactured by baby gear company 4moms, are being recalled due to strangulation hazards, according to a consumer product notice issued by Health Canada.
Health Canada says the recall involves certain MamaRoo baby swings and the RockaRoo baby rockers.
Those products impacted by the recall include MamaRoo infant swing set models that use a 3-point harness including models 4M-005, 1026 and 1037, according to the recall notice.
The MamaRoo model that uses a 5-point harness is not included in the recall, according to Health Canada.
The affected RockaRoo baby rocker’s model number is 4M-012. The model numbers can be found on the bottom of the products.
Both products have restraint straps that can dangle below the seat, and infants who are not seated can become “entangled in the straps, posing a strangulation hazard,” Health Canada said in the recall notice.
“This issue does not present a hazard to infants placed in the seat of either product,” the agency noted.
According to the recall, there have been no reports of strangulation or injury submitted to the company as of Aug. 9.
“Consumers with infants who can crawl should immediately stop using the recalled products and place them in an area where crawling infants cannot access,” reads the statement.
Consumers who have purchased one of the recalled products can register on the 4moms recall registration website or by phone at 877-870-7390. After doing this, 4moms will send a strap fastener to consumers with instructions on how to install.
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