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Crude Oil Outlook: OPEC+ Curbs Supply Cut as GDP Growth Recovers – DailyFX

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CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST: OPEC+ SUPPLY INCREASE ON TAP AS GLOBAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY REBOUNDS FROM Q2 GDP GROWTH IMPLOSION

  • Crude oil prices have climbed with risk assets as market sentiment and economic activity rebound from the coronavirus lockdown
  • Saudi Arabia and Russia solidified an agreement to begin unwinding historic OPEC+ supply cuts as world oil demand snaps back
  • 2Q-2020 GDP growth rates are due from several advanced economies this coming week amid high-profile equity earnings reports and a FOMC decision

Crude oil price action has staged a monumental recovery since the commodity traded in negative territory this past April. The rally in oil prices over recent weeks looks largely on the back of two bullish fundamental drivers: an OPEC+ deal to slash supply combined with a welcomed rebound in global energy consumption.

WTI CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE: DECEMBER 2019 – JULY 2020 (CHART 1)

Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView

WTI crude oil currently fluctuates around $41.00 per barrel measured by the front-month futures contract, but the advance has started to stall, and petroleum performance is still down about 32% since the start of January. Broadly speaking, lower crude oil prices stem from a whopping 9% plunge in world oil demand expected this year due to a screeching halt in economic activity amid the coronavirus lockdown.

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This has primarily contributed to a supply-demand imbalance of 9.8-million barrels per day penciled in by OPEC for 2Q-2020. Looking forward, however, the cartel of major oil producers have optimistic projections for world oil demand to recover during the second half of 2020 and into 2021. Both the IEA and EIA anticipate global oil demand to increase in the months ahead as well according to their respective monthly oil reports.

OPEC & ALLIES SET TO CURTAIL PRODUCTION CUTS AMID DEMAND RECOVERY (CHART 2)

Chart Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Rising demand for crude oil has correspondingly enticed OPEC and its allies to begin reversing production cuts announced earlier this year that were aimed at absorbing excess market supply. This was indicated by OPEC+ delegates who backed an agreement solidified by Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase the group’s crude oil output by 2-million barrels per day starting next month.

Learn More – Global Commodities: Worldwide Commodity Imports & Exports (Interactive Tool)

The move looks to ease OPEC+ production cuts from 9.7-million barrels per day to 7.7-million barrels per day on net. As such, a bearish risk facing crude oil price action emerges with OPEC+ set to unwind prior supply cuts and relax oversight of standing output quotas. Another notable headwind looming over the direction of crude oil includes potential for the v-shaped recovery in global GDP growth to abate as the ‘liquidity high’ from unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures wears off.

GLOBAL ECONOMIES DUE TO REPORT STAGGERING GDP GROWTH RATE DECLINES (CHART 3)

Chart Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

On that note, market participants may focus on second quarter GDP data releases due next week considering the elevated chance for volatility as this typically high-impact economic indicator crosses the wire. Despite the backward-looking nature of quarterly GDP reports, they can catalyze shifts in trader sentiment, particularly if actual numbers differ materially from forecast. To that end, GDP growth rates from the United States and Eurozone might garner notable attention. This is seeing that the US and EU are two of the world’s biggest economies and consumers of crude oil.

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Likewise, a swarm of equity earnings anticipated next week, not to mention the potential for coronavirus vaccine news, could cause fluctuations in risk appetite and crude oil price action as well. Two additional fundamental themes prudent traders may want to keep tabs on include rising jobless claims and escalating china tensions, which might steer crude oil prices lower if these bearish headwinds gain traction and fuel risk aversion.

Learn More – How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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