Crude Oil, OPEC Annual World Oil Outlook, US Supply and Demand – Talking Points
Crude oil prices soared the most since May on rising US stimulus hopes
US Oil supply & demand falling, all eyes on OPEC World Oil Outlook
WTI in a near-term downtrend as key triangle resistance held for now
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WTI crude oil prices soared 6.32% on Monday, the best performance over the course of 24 hours since the middle of May. Rising expectations of US fiscal stimulus likely boosted overall market sentiment, offering support to the growth-linked commodity. This also follows what has been dismal performance from crude oil since late August amid rising woes about the outlook for energy demand.
On the chart below, a 14-day moving average of US oil demand and supply can be seen trending cautiously lower since late July. Together, these are fundamental forces that can provide a fairly neutral price setting. The country is the single-largest consumer and producer of the commodity, according to the EIA. Thus, the outlook for general growth and oil output there can greatly influence the price of crude oil.
What about globally? The EIA has also highlighted an ongoing supply-demand deficit through the fourth quarter. That could keep prices fairly stable. For a deeper analysis, check out the latest DailyFX Q4 forecast below. In the near term, in addition to US fiscal stimulus bets, all eyes this week turn to the latest OPEC annual World Oil Outlook on Thursday.
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US Crude Oil Supply and Demand Trends
The report will touch on supply and demand projections out to 2045. Following massive cuts to production to stem a supply glut following the outbreak of the coronavirus, OPEC has been slowly unwinding those reductions. However, the pace has slowed. Last month, the oil-producing cartel averaged about 24.43 million barrels per day, up from 24.39 in August.
If production levels hold around these levels for now, investors may focus be on the demand side of the report. On this front, members may highlight what is expected to be a swift recovery in 2021 which may improve the outlook for consumption. That could in turn boost crude oil prices. However, down the road, that may fuel an increase in US shale output, bringing back supply. For more, check out the Q4 oil outlook below.
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Crude Oil Versus OPEC Output
Crude Oil Technical Analysis
While WTI crude oil prices have climbed on Monday, prices stopped short of the falling trend line from late August. In fact, the commodity may continue to trade under a Symmetrical Triangle highlighted below. The downside breakout last week could signal a bearish trajectory. Yet, key support held between 36.15 and 37.10. A close under this range exposes the 34.63 inflection point.
TORONTO – Restaurant Brands International Inc. reported net income of US$357 million for its third quarter, down from US$364 million in the same quarter last year.
The company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says its profit amounted to 79 cents US per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with 79 cents US per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue for the parent company of Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, totalled US$2.29 billion, up from US$1.84 billion in the same quarter last year.
Consolidated comparable sales were up 0.3 per cent.
On an adjusted basis, Restaurant Brands says it earned 93 cents US per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 90 cents US per diluted share a year earlier.
The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents US per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Fortis Inc. reported a third-quarter profit of $420 million, up from $394 million in the same quarter last year.
The electric and gas utility says the profit amounted to 85 cents per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up from 81 cents per share a year earlier.
Fortis says the increase was driven by rate base growth across its utilities, and strong earnings in Arizona largely reflecting new customer rates at Tucson Electric Power.
Revenue in the quarter totalled $2.77 billion, up from $2.72 billion in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Fortis says it earned 85 cents per share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 84 cents per share in the third quarter of 2023.
The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 82 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
TORONTO – Thomson Reuters reported its third-quarter profit fell compared with a year ago as its revenue rose eight per cent.
The company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says it earned US$301 million or 67 cents US per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30. The result compared with a profit of US$367 million or 80 cents US per diluted share in the same quarter a year earlier.
Revenue for the quarter totalled US$1.72 billion, up from US$1.59 billion a year earlier.
In its outlook, Thomson Reuters says it now expects organic revenue growth of 7.0 per cent for its full year, up from earlier expectations for growth of 6.5 per cent.
On an adjusted basis, Thomson Reuters says it earned 80 cents US per share in its latest quarter, down from an adjusted profit of 82 cents US per share in the same quarter last year.
The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 76 cents US per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
