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Crude Oil Outlook: OPEC World Outlook Report in Focus After Price Spike – DailyFX

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Crude Oil, OPEC Annual World Oil Outlook, US Supply and Demand – Talking Points

  • Crude oil prices soared the most since May on rising US stimulus hopes
  • US Oil supply & demand falling, all eyes on OPEC World Oil Outlook
  • WTI in a near-term downtrend as key triangle resistance held for now
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WTI crude oil prices soared 6.32% on Monday, the best performance over the course of 24 hours since the middle of May. Rising expectations of US fiscal stimulus likely boosted overall market sentiment, offering support to the growth-linked commodity. This also follows what has been dismal performance from crude oil since late August amid rising woes about the outlook for energy demand.

On the chart below, a 14-day moving average of US oil demand and supply can be seen trending cautiously lower since late July. Together, these are fundamental forces that can provide a fairly neutral price setting. The country is the single-largest consumer and producer of the commodity, according to the EIA. Thus, the outlook for general growth and oil output there can greatly influence the price of crude oil.

What about globally? The EIA has also highlighted an ongoing supply-demand deficit through the fourth quarter. That could keep prices fairly stable. For a deeper analysis, check out the latest DailyFX Q4 forecast below. In the near term, in addition to US fiscal stimulus bets, all eyes this week turn to the latest OPEC annual World Oil Outlook on Thursday.

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US Crude Oil Supply and Demand Trends

The report will touch on supply and demand projections out to 2045. Following massive cuts to production to stem a supply glut following the outbreak of the coronavirus, OPEC has been slowly unwinding those reductions. However, the pace has slowed. Last month, the oil-producing cartel averaged about 24.43 million barrels per day, up from 24.39 in August.

If production levels hold around these levels for now, investors may focus be on the demand side of the report. On this front, members may highlight what is expected to be a swift recovery in 2021 which may improve the outlook for consumption. That could in turn boost crude oil prices. However, down the road, that may fuel an increase in US shale output, bringing back supply. For more, check out the Q4 oil outlook below.

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Crude Oil Versus OPEC Output

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

While WTI crude oil prices have climbed on Monday, prices stopped short of the falling trend line from late August. In fact, the commodity may continue to trade under a Symmetrical Triangle highlighted below. The downside breakout last week could signal a bearish trajectory. Yet, key support held between 36.15 and 37.10. A close under this range exposes the 34.63 inflection point.

WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart

Crude Oil Chart Created in TradingView

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

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TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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