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Currencies recover from Omicron chaos but analysts warn more volatility ahead

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Currency markets calmed on Monday in Asia after the initial shock of Omicron’s discovery sent investors scurrying for cover last week, but analysts warned of more volatility with little still known about the new coronavirus strain.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose 0.37% to $0.7139, recovering after a 1% tumble on Friday that saw it dip to $0.71125 for the first time since Aug. 20.

The Mexican peso also rebounded, surging 0.93% to 21.7280 per dollar, after slumping to its weakest in almost 14 months at 22.1540 on Friday.

The safe-harbour yen, which had been the biggest beneficiary of the flight to quality, weakened 0.09% to 113.60 per dollar. The Japanese currency surged as much as 2% at one point on Friday to 113.05.

Fellow haven the Swiss franc sank 0.45% to 0.9257 per dollar.

The South African rand recovered from Friday’s one-year low at 16.3675 per dollar, jumping 0.93% to 16.1400.

South Africa discovered the Omicron variant last week, and countries globally have been quick to tighten border controls with mutations in the spike protein suggesting it could be resistant to current vaccines.

Despite the speed of the response, Omicron has since been detected in places including Australia, Britain, Canada, Germany and Hong Kong.

On a reassuring note, a South African doctor who was one of the first to suspect a different coronavirus strain said that symptoms of Omicron were so far “very mild”.

BioNTech said Friday it may know within two weeks if the vaccine it developed with Pfizer needs to be reworked.

“Until then, market volatility is likely to remain elevated,” Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a client note. “Markets have been forced to reassess the global growth outlook until we know more.”

“We expect currencies to be volatile this week,” echoed Joseph Capurso, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “It will not take much negative news about Omicron to push AUD below $0.7000.”

President Joe Biden will give an update later on Monday of the U.S. response to the new variant.

The U.S. dollar index – which measures the currency against six major peers – traded at 96.283, after dipping to a one-week low of 95.973 on Friday.

While the dollar stands to benefit from the uncertainty because of its status as a safe haven, Omicron clouds the outlook for when the Federal Reserve – and other global central banks – can raise interest rates.

The euro, which jumped 0.98% on Friday as traders closed out short positions, dropped 0.32% to $1.12785.

Several officials from the European Central Bank, which has maintained a dovish stance in the face of mounting inflation pressures, have speaking duties on Monday, including ECB president Christine Lagarde.

Sterling was about flat at $1.33325, off Friday’s 11-month low at $1.3278.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin edged higher to around $57,400, continuing a recovery from Sunday’s one and a half-month low of $53,308.93.

 

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)

Economy

Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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