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The Bank of Canada may rue its recent interest rate hike

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There are lies. There are damned lies. And then there are statistics. To paraphrase Mark Twain.

What is tough to figure out here is why the Bank of Canada thinks it can pull the wool over our eyes. One of its rationales for hiking rates rather unexpectedly last week and threatening to do even more (after taking out the John Crow tightening phase of the late 1980s when inflation was a far more serious problem) is that the Canadian economy has become more immune to interest rate hikes than it had thought. What? If anything, the areas of the economy most hitched to the central bank’s policy seem to already be in a recession or quickly heading there.

The Bank of Canada focuses on the quarterly averages from the gross domestic product data (on the spending side), but doesn’t seem ready to comment on the decay coming from the contours of the monthly numbers. In aggregate, the interest-sensitive segments contained in the monthly real GDP data (manufacturing, residential construction, real estate, financial services, retail and wholesale sectors) contracted 0.3 per cent in March after a 0.2 per cent retreat in February, and this aggregate has been flat or down sequentially in 11 of the past 12 months. The year-over-year trend was one per cent a year ago and has since swung to minus 1.5 per cent currently, the most negative it has been since June 2020.
Policymakers seem impressed with the Canadian consumer, but not every figure is coming up smelling like roses. The retail sector, in volume terms, contracted 0.8 per cent in March atop a 0.6 per cent decline in February in the steepest successive setback since April-May 2021. Spending here is lower today than it was last June. That classifies as impressive? Maybe if you’re a masochist.

The wholesale trade industry fell 0.6 per cent month over month in March after being down 1.2 per cent in February. It has been reversing in four of the past five months and running at minus 1.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis. Financial services are down in two of the past four months, and down fractionally (minus 0.3 per cent) year over year.

Residential construction — the most credit-sensitive of all — sagged 1.1 per cent in March and is riding a five-month losing streak. The minus 15-per-cent year-over-year trend is the worst since April 2020, and the actual level of real expenditures has dialled its way back to where it was in May 2020 when the Bank of Canada, like the United States Federal Reserve, was assuring everyone that rates were not going up for many years. Nice call. Finally, manufacturing activity declined 0.6 per cent in March and is off 1.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

I sense the Bank of Canada will rue the day it pulled the stunt it did on June 7. Most of all, I question the analysis and the conclusion that somehow the rate-sensitive sectors are holding up just fine in the face of the most acute tightening program since 1981.

You can have your own opinions, to be sure, but you can’t have your own facts. And the central bank is definitely not taking a complete view of what is happening in the economy, perhaps because it needs “cover” in its quest to quickly achieve that holy grail, but basically irrelevant, two-per-cent inflation objective.

David Rosenberg is founder of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. To receive more of David Rosenberg’s insights and analysis, you can sign up for a complimentary, one-month trial on the Rosenberg Research website.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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