Economy

The Bank of Canada may rue its recent interest rate hike

Published

1 year ago

June 12, 2023

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem hiked rates by 25 basis points at the June 7 meeting. Photo by Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press/Bloomberg

There are lies. There are damned lies. And then there are statistics. To paraphrase Mark Twain.

What is tough to figure out here is why the Bank of Canada thinks it can pull the wool over our eyes. One of its rationales for hiking rates rather unexpectedly last week and threatening to do even more (after taking out the John Crow tightening phase of the late 1980s when inflation was a far more serious problem) is that the Canadian economy has become more immune to interest rate hikes than it had thought. What? If anything, the areas of the economy most hitched to the central bank’s policy seem to already be in a recession or quickly heading there.

The Bank of Canada focuses on the quarterly averages from the gross domestic product data (on the spending side), but doesn’t seem ready to comment on the decay coming from the contours of the monthly numbers. In aggregate, the interest-sensitive segments contained in the monthly real GDP data (manufacturing, residential construction, real estate, financial services, retail and wholesale sectors) contracted 0.3 per cent in March after a 0.2 per cent retreat in February, and this aggregate has been flat or down sequentially in 11 of the past 12 months. The year-over-year trend was one per cent a year ago and has since swung to minus 1.5 per cent currently, the most negative it has been since June 2020.

Policymakers seem impressed with the Canadian consumer, but not every figure is coming up smelling like roses. The retail sector, in volume terms, contracted 0.8 per cent in March atop a 0.6 per cent decline in February in the steepest successive setback since April-May 2021. Spending here is lower today than it was last June. That classifies as impressive? Maybe if you’re a masochist.

The wholesale trade industry fell 0.6 per cent month over month in March after being down 1.2 per cent in February. It has been reversing in four of the past five months and running at minus 1.8 per cent on a year-over-year basis. Financial services are down in two of the past four months, and down fractionally (minus 0.3 per cent) year over year.

Residential construction — the most credit-sensitive of all — sagged 1.1 per cent in March and is riding a five-month losing streak. The minus 15-per-cent year-over-year trend is the worst since April 2020, and the actual level of real expenditures has dialled its way back to where it was in May 2020 when the Bank of Canada, like the United States Federal Reserve, was assuring everyone that rates were not going up for many years. Nice call. Finally, manufacturing activity declined 0.6 per cent in March and is off 1.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

I sense the Bank of Canada will rue the day it pulled the stunt it did on June 7. Most of all, I question the analysis and the conclusion that somehow the rate-sensitive sectors are holding up just fine in the face of the most acute tightening program since 1981.

You can have your own opinions, to be sure, but you can’t have your own facts. And the central bank is definitely not taking a complete view of what is happening in the economy, perhaps because it needs “cover” in its quest to quickly achieve that holy grail, but basically irrelevant, two-per-cent inflation objective.

David Rosenberg is founder of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. To receive more of David Rosenberg’s insights and analysis, you can sign up for a complimentary, one-month trial on the Rosenberg Research website.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite gains almost 100 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

Published

17 hours ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

Published

24 hours ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

Published

2 days ago

September 12, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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