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Declining U.S. Petroleum Inventories Push Oil Prices Higher | OilPrice.com


Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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  • U.S. commercial petroleum stocks have fallen in most of the weeks in the past year and a half.
  • The continuously declining U.S. petroleum stocks over the past year suggest that supply has not caught up with rebounding demand.
  • Petroleum stocks at lower than seasonal norms have contributed to market tightness alongside the OPEC+ group’s inability to fully meet its rising monthly production quotas.

Despite a crude oil inventory build in the latest EIA report, U.S. commercial petroleum stocks have declined in most of the weeks in the past year and a half, falling below seasonal averages for the past five years and even below the five-year average before the pandemic.   The continuously declining U.S. petroleum stocks over the past year suggest that supply has not caught up with rebounding demand as U.S. exploration and production companies have not responded with a spike in new drilling activity to the rising crude oil prices.  

Petroleum stocks at lower than seasonal norms have contributed to market tightness alongside the OPEC+ group’s inability to fully meet its rising monthly production quotas and rising global demand as economies look to return to normal. 

Global oil demand has held resilient during the Omicron wave so far, prompting the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise higher its 2022 demand growth estimate by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) last week. 

In the United States, the latest EIA data as of January 14 showed a small crude inventory build of 500,000 barrels and another large increase in gasoline stocks, which added 5.9 million barrels. This follows a combined build in gasoline inventories of over 18 million barrels for the previous two weeks. 

Despite the increase, gasoline stocks in the U.S. are now in line with the five-year average 2015-2019, before the pandemic, according to estimates by Reuters market analyst John Kemp.

Compared to the latest five-year average, which includes the pandemic years, gasoline stocks are now about 2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, EIA data showed.

The data also pointed to the fact that total commercial petroleum inventories in the United States decreased by 1.5 million barrels in the week ending January 14. U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories are about 16 percent below the five-year average, and propane/propylene inventories stood at some 7 percent below the five-year average, according to the EIA. That’s including the pandemic years. 

Compared to the 2015-2019 average, total U.S. commercial inventories are 4 percent below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average—the lowest level for this time of the year since 2015, Reuters’ Kemp has estimated. 

In December 2021, for example, U.S. petroleum demand returned to 21.1 million bpd with more people driving places instead of flying, the American Petroleum Institute’s chief economist Dean Foreman said in API’s latest Monthly Statistical Report

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“By contrast, the production of U.S crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) remained flat overall, with a minimal response by investment and drilling even as oil prices returned to more than $80 per barrel in January,” Foreman wrote. 

“Lower domestic oil production has also required refiners to use oil that’s already been produced and consequently reduced U.S. crude oil inventories to below their five-year range,” he added. 

At the end of December, crude oil inventories were below the five-year range and at their lowest for December since 2014, API’s report showed. Moreover, total inventories were at their lowest for December since 2017.

Lower-than-normal petroleum inventories have been putting an upside pressure on U.S. and international oil prices, which hit the highest since October 2014 last week. 

The tighter market these days is reflected in the rising backwardation in the futures prices of both major benchmarks, WTI and Brent, with prompt prices higher and rising compared to those further out in time.

Robust demand, insufficient investment in new supply, low inventories, and declining global spare production capacity have prompted major Wall Street banks – including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley – to forecast that oil prices could hit $100 per barrel as soon as this year. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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