The Canada Energy Regulator’s Energy Futures report projects a significant increase in power demand because of a shift toward heating Canadian homes and businesses with electricity, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and the production of hydrogen using clean power.Darryl Dyck/The Globe and Mail
Canadians’ use of fossil fuels will fall by more than 40 per cent by 2050, according to a new report by the Canada Energy Regulator, driven largely by a move away from gasoline and diesel as consumers switch to electric vehicles and long-haul transport looks to hydrogen.
The regulator’s annual flagship Energy Futures report explores how new technologies and climate policy will affect Canadian energy consumption and production trends over the next 30 years. While it emphasizes Canada cannot meet its climate goals on it current path, critics say the CER needs to do more to outline how the country can reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
The report models two scenarios. The evolving policies scenario assumes that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase at a pace similar to recent history, while the current policies scenario models limited action beyond policies that are in place today.
Total Canadian energy use,
evolving policies scenario
Per cent share in 2021 vs. 2050
Unabated fossil fuels
Low and non-emitting
the globe and mail
Source: canada energy regulator
Total Canadian energy use,
evolving policies scenario
Per cent share in 2021 vs. 2050
Unabated fossil fuels
Low and non-emitting
the globe and mail
Source: canada energy regulator
Total Canadian energy use, evolving policies scenario
Per cent share in 2021 vs. 2050
Unabated fossil fuels
Low and non-emitting
the globe and mail, Source: canada energy regulator
Fossil fuel demand by type,
evolving policies scenario
In petajoules
Natural
gas
RPPs and
NGLs
the globe and mail, Source: canada energy regulator
Fossil fuel demand by type,
evolving policies scenario
In petajoules
Natural
gas
RPPs and
NGLs
the globe and mail, Source: canada energy regulator
Fossil fuel demand by type, evolving policies scenario
In petajoules
Natural
gas
RPPs and
NGLs
the globe and mail, Source: canada energy regulator
Oil production remains relatively stable under the assumptions in the report, but grows more slowly than in the past decade. In the evolving policy scenario, production rises 16 per cent to a peak of 5.8 million barrels a day in 2032. It then declines, but remains resilient despite increasingly ambitious climate policies and relatively low assumed oil prices of US$40 a barrel by 2050.
In the other scenario, production in 2050 is only about four per cent below today’s levels.
But as more crude becomes available for export, Canada’s ability to get it to market will be tested. Pipeline systems – even with their planned expansions – and rail lines will be jammed with oil into the mid-2030s, exceeding capacity altogether under the current policy scenario.
While there’s more wiggle room under the evolving policy scenario, production will still take up more than 94 per cent of transport capacity until mid-2030.
“By historical standards, it’s extremely full. And so that doesn’t provide a lot of flexibility for upsets in the system for things like maintenance, or if production goes a little bit higher, or if there are any surprises in terms of capacity of existing pipeline systems,” said Darren Christie, the regulator’s chief economist.
The report doesn’t delve into world oil demand projections, but notes that Canadian production levels will hinge on global climate policies.
On the natural gas side, the evolving scenario has production gradually declining to 13.1 billion cubic feet per day by 2050, about 17 per cent lower than current levels. British Columbia will increase its share of production, overtaking Alberta as the top natural gas producer in 2028.
It’s not just fossil fuel demand that is set to decrease. Total energy demand in Canada will fall by more than 20 per cent by 2050 under the evolving policy scenario, with more than two-thirds of it met by low- and non-emitting sources (up from one-third today).
Much of the heavy lifting on emissions reduction will be done by carbon capture, utilization and storage projects, which force CO2 emissions deep into the ground to keep them out of the atmosphere.
Under the evolving scenario, fossil fuel use where emissions are not captured is projected to fall by 62 per cent in the next 30 years. By 2050, roughly half of all natural gas usage is tied to carbon capture and storage projects.
Mr. Christie said the report signals the need for more changes to Canada’s energy mix to reduce emissions to zero by 2050, but environmental groups say it should have gone further.
The Climate Action Network, a coalition of 130 groups across Canada, argued the CER should have looked to the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero by 2050 road map, released in the spring. That report modelled scenarios that assume global oil demand has already peaked.
Nichole Dusyk, a senior analyst at the Pembina Institute think tank, agreed the CER should have included a third scenario to help guide Canada on its path to net zero.
“It shows us almost a cautionary tale in terms of where we’re headed and that we need to go somewhere different. Where it fails is it doesn’t show us the other path that we actually want to take,” she said in an interview.
She also said that the report doesn’t align with federal government policies, including a pledge to get Canada’s power grid to net-zero emissions by 2035.
The report did, however, include a deep dive into electricity. And, despite the drop in total energy demand under the evolving policy scenario, it projects a significant increase in power demand because of a shift toward heating Canadian homes and businesses with electricity, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and the production of hydrogen using clean power.
Power generation also gets significantly less carbon-intensive, with 95 per cent of it coming from low- and non-emitting sources by 2050 – up from 82 per cent today.
At the same time, the report highlights the need for more cross-provincial power transmission, particularly in Western Canada.
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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.
The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.
The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.
Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.
Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.
Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.
Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.
Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.
Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.
Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.
Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).
Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.
June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.
Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”
Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.
July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.
Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)
TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.
Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.
The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.
As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.
TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.
TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
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