TORONTO – BUSINESS – Residential real estate is surging. Demand for housing has exceeded supply through the last half of 2020. This has put pressure on home prices, which Royal LePage says, in their Market Survey Forecast predicts a five and a half per cent increase in the price of the average home in 2021.
The price of a home in Canada in 2021 across the country will be $745,100, while the median price of a two-storey detached house or condominium will be projected to rise by six per cent, and 2.25 percent respectively to $890,100 and $522,700.
“The leading indicators we analyze are pointing to a market that favours property sellers in the all-important spring of 2021,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Across the country, a large number of hopeful buyers intent on improving their housing situation were not able to find the home they were looking for this year, as the inventory of properties for sale came nowhere near to meeting surging demand. With policy makers all but promising record low, industry supportive interest rates to continue, we do not see this imbalance improving in the new year. The upward pressure on home prices will continue.
“There was a clear shift towards larger properties and single-family dwellings in 2020, as families repurposed homes to become their office, school classroom, gymnasium and restaurant during the pandemic,” Soper continued. “We expect this trend to moderate as life returns to normal in the months ahead. It is also worth noting, that Canada welcomed a new generation of first-time homeowners this year, encouraged by lower financing costs and softer demand for city centre condominiums. Urban living remains attractive for many.”
Aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area forecast to rise 5.75%
Tech and government sector expansion to drive Ottawa prices up 11.5%
Canada’s priciest city to experience 9.0% rise as housing demand in Vancouver surges
Halifax and Greater Montreal prices forecast to rise 7.5% and 6.0%, respectively
Calgary, Edmonton prices buck regional economic drag, to show modest price growth
The value of single-family houses and homes outside of major urban markets are forecast to continue to outpace city core condominiums in the year ahead, driven both by Canadians seeking larger homes in a time where remote work has become more commonplace, and broad-based demographic trends, including baby-boomer retirement.
“Mega-trends that predate the pandemic are pushing home prices higher in secondary markets outside of our largest cities. Corporate Canada’s pandemic-driven move to work-from-home operations has simply accelerated relocation patterns already underway,” said Soper. “The huge baby-boomer demographic began post-children migration to suburban and recreational-style communities in the middle of the last decade, and material numbers of the equally populous millennial generation have been exiting city centre condos in search of space as they began families.”
Soper adds that the trend of high demand outside of urban centres will slowly ease as listings in city centres become more competitive against growing prices in suburban and exurban markets.
Immigration is critical to the housing market both indirectly, as it is supportive of economic growth, as well as directly through housing demand. In October, the federal government announced its plan to add more than 1.2 million immigrants over three years, a significant jump from previous years. Previously published Royal LePage research into this demographic shows that newcomers to Canada typically rent for three years before purchasing, after which they have a material impact on new household formation and overall housing demand. An increase in immigration is supportive of both the resale market and investment demand for rental condominiums.
Nationally, the condominium segment is expected to see healthy demand in most of Canada’s largest cities. A notable exception is the Greater Toronto Area where a softer condominium market began emerging in the second half of 2020. Within the region, modest price gains for larger units outside of the city centre is expected to continue to offset softer demand in the downtown core. With the return of international university student rental demand and newly arrived immigrants in the second half of 2021, demand for centrally located units should increase.
The concern regarding the impact of potential mortgage defaults related to mortgage deferrals during the summer has eased significantly, as many Canadians who deferred payments have begun repayment. According to CMHC, as of September 30, 2020, the organization’s entire insured book of business has 5 per cent of loans with a payment deferral in place; a decline from approximately 8 per cent in August.4
“The first half of 2021 will be something of an economic and social tug-o-war between advancing medical science and surging housing demand,” concluded Soper. “The real estate brokerage industry has developed protocols that allow us to safely sell property during the pandemic, yet some would-be sellers will remain cautious and not list their properties while high levels of COVID-19 transmission remain the norm, restricting available housing supply.”
Canadian Housing Outlook
Greater Toronto Area
In the Greater Toronto Area, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 5.75 per cent year-over-year to $990,300. During the same period, the median price of a standard two-storey home is expected to rise 7.5 per cent to $1,185,800, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 0.5 per cent to $600,800. The relatively flat median price projection for the condominium segment reflects a modest increase in median price for condominiums in the 905 area, offsetting a slight dip in median price for the City of Toronto.
“Single family homes remain in high demand. We expect lighter activity as we near the winter holidays but if inventory does not improve in early 2021, we could have another year of strong price appreciation,” said Debra Harris, vice president, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “Low inventory is expected to put upward pressure on prices but we could see low unit sales if there isn’t product to sell.”
Performance within the condominium segment is expected to remain varied with higher demand for larger units in the 905 area. Harris added that while there has been a recent surge in condominium listings, the historically starved Toronto condo market can withstand an increase in condo supply without significantly impacting price in the short term. With the federal government’s new and aggressive immigration targets as well as the expected return of rental demand from university students in the fall, resale demand for condominiums should be significantly higher in the second half of the year.
“Many young people returned home to save money during the pandemic and we expect them to want to get back into city life when the vaccine becomes available. The question is whether consumer confidence in the condo market will be healthy given the surge in listings. The reality is that current inventory is much healthier than where we were last year,” said Harris. “For the many young professionals who were discouraged by strong competition in the condo market in previous years, this window may be their opportunity to find a home they can get excited about living in.”
Greater Montreal Area
In the Greater Montreal Area, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 6.0 per cent year-over-year to $514,900. During the same period, the median price of a standard two-storey home is expected to rise 7.0 per cent to $656,200, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 3.75 per cent to $382,600.
“The pandemic has sparked our imagination in the sense that it’s given people the opportunity to take on real estate projects that would have been impossible without the option of remote work,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager, Royal LePage Quebec. “Buying a property became the main objective of many households, and for some, the only way to get some fresh air during the pandemic. We expect demand will only ease when Canadians truly come out of lockdown, that is to say when travel and regular activities can resume.”
St-Pierre added that Montreal’s real estate market has proven to be surprisingly resilient in the face of 2020’s economic uncertainty and the effects of the global pandemic on urban lifestyle.
Despite the exodus of Montrealers to the suburbs over the course of the last several months, demand on the island for single-family homes, and some condominiums, has reached new heights. Well-priced properties are selling quickly, due to a lack of inventory and accumulated demand prompted by health and safety restrictions.
“In advance of upcoming mass distribution of the vaccine and a return to normal business activity, it is possible that prolonged safety restrictions and their impact on the precarious job market, could lead to an increase in mortgage defaults, which would inject inventory into the real estate market,” suggested St-Pierre. “However, pent-up demand has been so high in the Greater Montreal Area that such a boost in inventory would be insufficient to cool the market, as properties would be absorbed immediately.”
In 2021, Greater Montreal’s condominium market will vary from one neighbourhood to the next.
“Generally speaking, the number of condos for sale should continue to increase, especially in the downtown core, where prices could stabilize or even dip slightly in some cases, attracting first-time homebuyers who can take advantage of record low interest rates,” predicts St-Pierre. “Elsewhere in the region, condo prices could increase. One of the driving factors in condo demand will be the return of foreign students to the city centre, providing improved revenue for landlords who have seen rental prices shrink.”
Greater Vancouver
In Greater Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 9.0 per cent year-over-year to $1,262,600. During the same period, the median price of a standard two-storey home is expected to rise 10.0 per cent to $1,671,700, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 3.5 per cent to $684,300.
“I am confident we will continue to see prices rise next year. Vancouver has proven to be a rather resilient market, with high demand and quite low inventory,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “In March, we couldn’t have imagined this is where we’d be today, but despite public health concerns, consumer confidence remains high. With very attractive mortgage rates and the promise of a vaccine on the horizon, demand is likely to remain strong.”
Ryalls noted that the current market conditions create a tough situation for buyers, who are oftentimes competing for properties; something he expects is likely to continue through 2021.
“We are seeing multiple offers on almost every reasonably-priced detached listing. There simply isn’t enough inventory to meet the demand,” said Ryalls. “A balanced Vancouver market has about 15,000 active listings available. Right now, we’re sitting at roughly 10,000. If we reach the end of January without an injection of inventory, we will continue to see upward pressure on prices in the spring. I expect a strong seller’s market in 2021.”
Ryalls added that while the condominium market is not as strained as the single-family detached sector, demand remains strong.
Ottawa
In Ottawa, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 11.5 per cent year-over-year to $624,000. During the same period, the median price of a condominium is expected to increase 7.5 per cent to $417,900, while the median price for a two-storey detached home is forecast to rise 12.0 per cent to $656,300.
“Ottawa real estate continues to see high demand from Toronto buyers who are looking for less density and more outdoor spaces. Living in Ottawa gives you access to great schools and healthcare, a good job market and you can maintain a city lifestyle while affording a much larger home than what is offered in the GTA,” said Jason Ralph, managing partner, Royal LePage TEAM Realty. “Many local buyers struggled to find what they were looking for in 2020 due to low inventory. With their return to the market in the spring coupled with continued demand from the GTA, prices are forecast to rise significantly.”
Ralph added that while inventory is critical to a healthy spring market, demand is expected to continue to outpace supply.
“Ottawa has very low inventory across all housing types, and the single-family home market is especially competitive,” said Ralph. “We do not see inventory relief coming in the spring, which is expected to result in multiple offers and further price increases. However, despite price gains, Ottawa remains very affordable compared to capital cities internationally, as well as large urban centres in Canada.”
Calgary
In Calgary, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 0.75 per cent to $469,600 year-over-year. During the same period, the median price of a condominium is forecast to decrease 1.0 per cent to $258,000, while the median price of a two-storey detached home is forecast to rise 1.5 per cent to $514,800.
“Inventory for detached homes has not seen similar lows since 2001. Buyers are eager to get into the market, but they may have to broaden their search to find a good selection to choose from if they are looking for detached homes in popular neighbourhoods,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “While spring is expected to bring new inventory to the market, we are also anticipating a healthy level of demand from buyers, resulting in a balanced market.”
As a result of low interest rates, Lyall added that buyer demand has stabilized and the downturn in the oil market is promoting a more diversified economy. The federal government’s recent increase in immigration targets may spur the condo market, providing more price stability and a potential opportunity for price gains. The condominium market is expected to dip modestly in median price, however, high demand from entry-level buyers and single professionals will continue to absorb some oversupply.
Edmonton
In Edmonton, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent year-over-year to $375,600. During the same period, the median price of a two-storey detached home is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent to $430,700, while the median price of a condominium is expected to rise 1.0 per cent to $215,100.
“In the second half of 2020, demand has outpaced supply and inventory is currently the lowest it’s been in five years. Some single-family homes are even attracting multiple offers and I expect to see the buyers who didn’t transact this fall, return in the spring. The question is whether the inventory will be there,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “In 2020, many sellers took their homes off the market due to their concerns regarding COVID-19. If we find ourselves again with a limited supply of houses on the market, prices will move upward.”
Shearer added the challenges that the Edmonton real estate market has faced in recent years have been absorbed into current pricing as sellers have now made their listings more competitive.
“There is excellent value in Edmonton,” added Shearer. “Homeownership is possible for most professionals, and young families can find detached properties in desirable neighbourhoods.”
Halifax
In Halifax, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 7.5 per cent year-over-year to $400,700. During the same period, the median price of a two-storey detached home is forecast to rise 9.0 per cent to $435,300, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 7.0 per cent to $322,300.
“The number of listings in Halifax is the lowest it has been in 16 years and demand is still strong. As remote work becomes more permanent, buyers are moving back to the Maritimes,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Halifax will continue to be in high demand as buyers from outside of Atlantic Canada seek affordability and the Maritime lifestyle while easily accessing the best of the city. You can live on the outskirts of Halifax and be downtown in 15 minutes. It’s the best of both worlds.”
Honsberger says while current demand for condominiums is lower than detached homes, there are signals that demand for condos may increase in 2021.
“While international students make up a smaller percentage of condo renters and buyers than other Maritime cities, a return to pre-COVID demand will stimulate the condominium market as students are expected to return in autumn 2021,” said Honsberger. “The timing of new build projects has also been pushed out, which could dampen supply in the new year.”
Winnipeg
In Winnipeg, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 4.75 per cent year-over-year to $348,700. During the same period, the median price of a two-storey detached home is expected to rise 5.0 per cent to $401,600, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 1.25 per cent to $230,100.
“Approximately 95% of listings that were added to the market in November, sold. That’s unheard of in Winnipeg,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “Even with the increased COVID-19 restrictions, demand remains strong. Heading into the new year, there would have to be a significant rise in our seasonal supply of listings to meet it.”
Froese added that strong demand for homes in the outlying communities is expected to remain a trend in 2021, as companies and individuals continue to normalize remote work and buyers look for homes that fit their new needs. Homes and communities that offer these types of amenities are thriving as much space as possible for their dollar.
Regina
In Regina, the aggregate price of a home in 2021 is forecast to increase 2.75 per cent year-over-year to $335,600. During the same period, the median price of a two-storey detached home is forecast to increase 3.0 per cent to $417,400, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent to $226,000.
“Low inventory continues to result in multiple offer scenarios as buyers seek larger homes. Consumer confidence is healthy and if we see a significant lift in inventory in the new year, we should have a brisk spring market” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty. “There is a high degree of uncertainty, but if current trends continue into 2021, there will be upward pressure on prices.”
Duggleby added that condominiums, after years of oversupply, are proving to be popular with investors who see current prices as below their value.
“Condominium investors have two streams of demand – university students and young immigrant families. If the Canadian government hits its newly revised immigration target and university students return in the fall, demand for condominiums will increase.”
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
