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Democrats see Tuesday as make-or-break day for Biden’s political future

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After U.S. President Joe Biden’s reelection efforts spiraled into chaos following his debate fiasco last month, Democrats who have both stood by and abandoned Biden since then see Tuesday as a decisive day for the president’s political future.

Numerous Democrats inside Biden’s administration and others close to the White House and campaign have told CNN over the past few days that the conclusions drawn within a morning House Democratic caucus meeting – followed by a Senate Democrats’ gathering in the afternoon – will likely seal the president’s fate.

While Biden has said the “Lord almighty” alone could drive him to abandon his campaign, top Democrats have said the decision ultimately lies with party leadership, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

“Chuck and Hakeem are going to have to say, ‘The Congress is turning on you,’” one top Democrat told CNN on the only scenario that could convince Biden to abandon his candidacy. “That’s basically the bottom line.”

Schumer and Jeffries both publicly backed Biden on Monday after the president launched an offensive across airwaves, campaign calls and congressional caucus meetings to shore up support. But both leaders will face their entire caucuses, which have seen support erode from senior members of committees. The degree of that erosion could force Democrats’ hand to decide one way or another – especially once Democrats begin to worry that appearing on a ballot under Biden harms their own election chances.

Jeffries listened as he was confronted with concerns and frustrations from all factions of the caucus during House Democrats’ Tuesday meeting.

The open mic format, during which roughly 30 lawmakers spoke, was designed so Jeffries and his leadership team could hear directly from members during the group’s first in-person meeting since the presidential debate.

But instead of a united front, Democrats emerged from the meeting without consensus or a clear path forward.

While Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn, a staunch Biden ally, called the meeting “very positive,” another Democratic member in the meeting told CNN that there was a sense of “sadness” in the room from “talking about someone you love who is in obvious decline.”

Democrat Rep. Lloyd Doggett, the first sitting House Democrat to call on Biden to withdraw his candidacy, said that he expects more Democrats to join his ranks following the caucus meeting, the opposite of what most party leaders were hoping for.

“The debate cannot be unseen. The president has been running behind. We needed a surge. We got a setback. He is a great man who’s made a great contribution to the country, but he shouldn’t leave a legacy that endangers us that we surrender to a tyrant,” Doggett said, referring to former President Donald Trump.

Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, another one of the six House Democrats to publicly call for Biden to step aside, said he shared how he got to his position in the closed-door meeting with his colleagues.

“Everyone was listening very carefully to a variety of positions in the room. And that’s exactly the kind of debate and discussion that we should be having as a party. This is what democracy is about,” Moulton said.

Even though a number of lawmakers expressed their support for Biden, the concerns stuck with many Democrats after the meeting.

“There’s a ton of concern,” Democratic Rep. Greg Landman told CNN. “(Biden’s) got a lot of work left to do.”

The first fractures in what had been Biden’s coalition of Democratic support appeared last Tuesday, five days after his faltering debate performance, when Doggett of Texas became the first member of Biden’s own party in Congress to ask that he step aside. He has since been joined by several more members of Congress – all in the House – though the most prominent members have either firmly entrenched themselves behind their candidate or avoided questions about whether he should continue.

Several Democratic governors who attended a meeting with Biden at the White House last week left unimpressed with Biden’s shifting explanations for his poor debate performance and his vows to take steps, including limiting late-night events and going to sleep earlier, to avoid a repeat of that performance. One governor, Maura Healey of Massachusetts, said Biden should “carefully evaluate” whether he’s the best choice to defeat Trump.

Party officials tell CNN that a decision must happen soon, otherwise Biden’s candidacy could be irreparably damaged by the intra-party war that has broken out and the reputational damage Biden has sustained as a result.

“I can’t stress this enough: Dems need to make a decision and then move forward,” one DNC official said. “The sniping won’t stop until leadership officially puts an end to the uncertainty.”

That time crunch is part of what makes this week one of the most crucial of Biden’s half-century-long political career. House Democrats gathered on Tuesday to discuss steps forward with Biden’s campaign.

Biden will join a group of Democratic mayors for a meeting later Tuesday, and will participate in a rare solo news conference during the NATO summit later this week.

With the Democrats’ August convention quickly approaching, the party has little time to mount an entirely separate national political campaign in Biden’s absence – while the president has precious few opportunities to convince voters, donors and members of his own party that he is up to another grueling three months of campaigning followed by another four years in office.

The interview Biden did with ABC last week confirmed Biden’s stubborn determination to prove his doubters wrong and stay in the race – even if it didn’t soothe concerns about his ability to do so. He riffed extensively on polling data and, when asked whether he would consider stepping aside if crucial party leaders asked him to do so, replied: “They’re not going to do that.”

Another senior Democrat put the message more bluntly: Leaders in both chambers, they said, need to tell their members Tuesday to “f–king get in line.”

Most within the party understand the frustration that has emerged after Biden’s debate performance resurfaced questions about his health and longevity that even former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi described as “legitimate.”

But there remains a significant amount of skepticism that Biden could be replaced seamlessly on the ticket without more hand-wringing and a lot of red tape.

“The fantasy that we could swap in a person, and they could run away with a nomination at the convention, is just that – a fantasy,” another senior Democrat said. “And the chattering in the interim isn’t helping.”

CNN’s Arlette Saenz contributed.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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