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Doctor responds to vaccinated vs unvaccinated study – Opinion – Castanet.net

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Re: Mixing with unvaccinated increases COVID-19 risk for vaccinated people, study finds

A recent article published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal titled “Impact of population mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated subpopulations on infectious disease dynamics: implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission” has garnered much medical and societal attention.

The article uses unproven and subjective mathematical models in an attempt to simulate one’s COVID-19 infection risk across various patterns of interactions with both vaccinated and vaccine-free individuals. The author concludes that individuals who avoid vaccination contribute to negative health consequences for others.

“The risk of infection [is] markedly higher among unvaccinated people than among vaccinated people under all [population interaction] assumptions.”

Such an assertion is incorrect and blatantly bias as I will demonstrate.

This article is fraught with egregious misassumptions and glaring omissions. This deceptive study:

• Uses problematic mathematical modelling as a surrogate for real-world data

• Overestimates vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection

• Overestimates the risk of transmission (secondary attack rate)

• Underestimates the percentage of the unvaccinated population with effective and robust natural immunity

• Does not account for the waning immunity provided by vaccines

• Is published by a lead author who’s conflicts of interest are multiple and significant as it pertains to COVID-19 vaccines.

First, inaccurate mathematical modelling (aka computer modelling) has been frequently used throughout the COVID-19 response in order to justify lockdown measures while promoting unscientific public health edicts. I have yet to observe any real accuracy nor public health benefit to the multiple computer modelled declarations or the policies they generate to date.

Next, the authors have used the fictitious range of vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection of 40-80%. This represents the upper bound limit of 80% as seen in some Delta variant data and a lower bound limit of 40%, the rate presumed months prior to any real-world early Omicron variant data.

These assumptions are not consistent with the current data available to the medical community. The vaccine effectiveness against Omicron symptomatic infection ranges from 0% to 75% which represents a range independently associated with one’s vaccine type, duration since primary series, and duration since booster(s).

Regarding transmission, the author overstates the ability of vaccines to reduce the risk of transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus by a remarkable amount. The most current information available from the publication United Kingdom COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance Report Week 16 (April 21, 2022) confirms a vaccine effectiveness of 0-25% in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission at all time periods since a booster dose. Current data supports the fact that COVID-19 vaccines do a poor job at reducing one’s risk of transmission of disease.

Thus, the authors’ models grossly overestimate vaccine effectiveness against both symptomatic infection and transmission. Moreover, the model proposed fails to account for the single-handedly most important reason for the ongoing and relentless Omicron waves, namely waning vaccine immunity.

Countless studies and real-world data demonstrate rapid waning immunity in the fully vaccinated population. Vaccines do not currently protect the vaccinated. Why can’t we all just admit this reality?

Furthermore, the authors assume a baseline previously infected rate of 20% in the unvaccinated population. Since the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves, it is now estimated that 50-80% of Canadians have been infected and thus have achieved natural immunity, with that number continuing to rise daily.

The longevity of protection from natural immunity against symptomatic infection has been repeatedly proven superior to vaccination alone, meaning that the underestimation of those with natural immunity further skews the model from being anything remotely resembling what we are witnessing in reality.

Since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the level of academic rigor, integrity, and quality used to support mandates, restrictions, and Public Health guidance has drastically diminished. We are forced to adhere to observational data and models, which would fail scrutiny in any first-year medical epidemiology course as the gold standards for determining efficacy and effectiveness. Appallingly, this same evidence is being used to guide and dictate policies, which have caused irreversible damage to adolescents, families, careers, and our healthcare system. Randomized control trials are compromised and left unfinished leading to a discreet lack of data that should cause any clinician worth their degree cause for concern.

Finally, I must address the footnote provided in the study. Dr. Fisman admits he accepts direct compensation from multiple COVID-19 vaccine agencies including Pfizer and AstraZeneca. When it comes to subjective societal models, how can we trust a researcher who has direct financial ties to the vaccine industry to be objective about a matter of utmost financial importance to the companies to which he pledges allegiance? Cui bono?

Evidence-based medicine has lost its aptitude amidst a time where academics like Dr. Fisman financially benefit by producing poor quality studies that the media, the provincial government and their enablers, including the provincial heath officer deem as gospel.

(B.C. Premier) John Horgan recently posed the question “[Do] you want a headline, or do you want action?”. True academics would like quality evidence from independent researchers who have no conflicts of interest. Unfortunately, the true nature of our current reality leads us to a realm that includes unproven mathematical models, a misunderstanding about the importance of the variables at hand, an underrepresentation of the natural immunity we all share, and most importantly the intentional misleading of the public when it comes to public health matters nation-wide.

Promotion of poorly constructed research such as this can only lead to further stigmatization and division in our once tolerant society. We challenge the CMAJ to retract this “study” and similarly challenge all media outlets who carried this story to issue a correction in their next publication.

Dr. Ralph Behrens is a medical doctor located in Fruitvale, B.C.

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Canada to donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to combat mpox outbreaks in Africa

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The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.

It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.

Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”

Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.

Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.

On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.

Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”

But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”

“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.

Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.

Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.

Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.

“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.

“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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