Dollar finds footing on U.S. economy as euro and yen falter - Cape Breton Post | Canada News Media
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Dollar finds footing on U.S. economy as euro and yen falter – Cape Breton Post

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By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar began the week firmly and within a whisker of milestone peaks against the euro and yen on Monday, as U.S. economic strength and a vaccine rollout proceeding much more quickly than in Europe drew investors into the greenback.

The euro sat at $1.1788, not far above last week’s four-and-a-half-month trough of $1.1762 and well below its 200-day moving average of about $1.1866.

The common currency is heading for its worst month since mid-2019 as Europe’s faltering vaccination programme runs into a wave of new infections, a bearish signal as positioning data shows investors remain heavily long euros.

The yen stood just shy of strong resistance and Friday’s 10-month low of 109.85 per dollar to trade at 109.77 early in the Asia session.

The yen is sensitive to gaps in returns on U.S. and Japanese government debt.

This year’s 76-basis-point rise in 10-year Treasury yields – as the U.S. economy rebounds – has opened the gap to its widest since last February. That has drawn Japanese investment, which has in turn helped push the yen down nearly 6% for the quarter.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.8% to 92.773 and the dollar steadied against the risk-sensitive Aussie, kiwi and sterling, having fallen late on Friday with the positive mood.

Over the quarter the dollar has posted a 0.8% loss on the pound, which has been supported by Britain’s speedy vaccination rollout, a 0.8% gain on the Australian dollar and a 2.7% gain against the kiwi, which has been hit by housing market reforms.

The Aussie was last down 0.1% at $0.7631 on Monday and the New Zealand dollar fell by the same margin to $0.6989, while sterling slipped 0.1% as well to $1.3784.

“The U.S. is also being helped on its own by some pretty good economic data, fantastic rollout of vaccines, good pace of vaccination and (positive) stock markets,” said Westpac currency analyst Imre Speizer.

“The domestic economy is doing better than expected and likely to be the case for the next few months, so that might hold the U.S. dollar up and that’s what’s caused the Aussie, kiwi and emerging-market currencies to pullback in March.”

U.S. jobless claims fell to a one-year low last week and President Joe Biden said he would double his vaccination goal, after surpassing 100 million shots 42 days ahead of schedule.

In contrast, European inoculations have plagued by supply problems and safety concerns.

Last week, the head of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases also warned a third wave of the virus could be the worst so far, and on Sunday Chancellor Angela Merkel raised the possibility of curfews to bring it under control.

Besides infection and inoculation counts, investors looking to Purchasing Managers Index figures due midweek and for some details of U.S. President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan.

However the main data will be U.S. hiring figures due on Good Friday.

“The distribution of forecasts range from 460,000 to 1 million (jobs), where the whisper number sits at the top end of the range,” said Pepperstone’s head of research, Chris Weston.

“One million jobs would set the reflation trades alight, with the S&P500 outperforming, led by cyclicals and cause a solid sell-off in bond yields taking USD/JPY and USD/CHF higher,” he said. “The euro should push through last weeks lows of 1.1761 and towards 1.1690.”

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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