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Dollar heads for weekly loss as longs lose faith

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The dollar headed for its largest weekly fall in eight months on Friday as investors trimmed long positions and deemed, for now, that several U.S. rate hikes this year are fully priced in.

In a week where data showed U.S. inflation at its hottest since the early 1980s, selling has forced the greenback through key support against the euro in particular and traders seem content to lighten their bets until a clearer trend emerges.

The dollar index is down about 0.9% for the week, on course for its largest weekly percentage fall since last May and set to halt a rally that has lasted about six months. The index last held at 94.849 in quiet Asia trade.

The euro is up more than 0.8% for the week so far, and has punched out of a range it held since late November. At $1.1457 it doesn’t face strong chart resistance until $1.1525.

The yen has rallied 1% over the week, and pushed back through 115 to the dollar, last holding at 114.13.

The moves have come while U.S. interest rate futures have all but locked in four hikes this year. But longer-end yields have fallen slightly on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials about reducing the bank’s balance sheet. [US/]

“Investors appear to be signalling that ending quantitative easing, hiking rates four times and commencing quantitative tightening all in the space of nine months is so aggressive that it will limit the scope for hikes further out,” said Derek Halpenny, head of global markets research at MUFG.

“It has in fact reinforced the belief that peak Fed funds will be below 2%,” Halpenny said in a note to clients.

“What can change this? We will need to see data on the economy that convinces the market of stronger growth. That could see thinking on the terminal fed funds rate shift higher. That would be the catalyst for renewed dollar strength.”

The Antipodean currencies have also been roused from their ranges and will have traders looking closely at labour and inflation data in both countries this month for anything that might prompt further shifts in central bank rhetoric. [AUD/]

The New Zealand dollar is up 1.3% for the week so far and is above its 50-day moving average at $0.6861. The Aussie briefly broke above stubborn resistance around $0.7276 this week, but retreated to that level on Friday.

“Further evidence of strength in the labour market will trigger expectations … for a potential positive shift in Reserve Bank of Australia rhetoric which will underpin the outlook for the AUD,” said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley.

“We expect AUD/USD to push higher to $0.74 in H2 2022.”

Sterling has been forging ahead, too, defying a political crisis threatening Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s position on confidence that Britain’s economy can withstand a wave of COVID-19 infections and that rate hikes could begin next month.

The pound traded above its 200-day moving average on Thursday and is heading for a fourth consecutive weekly gain of more than 0.5%. It last bought $1.3707. [GBP/]

In Asia on Friday the Bank of Korea raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, as expected, and the South Korean won looked to hang on to a weekly rise of about 0.8%.

China’s yuan, on the other hand, has had its gains on the dollar capped by growing expectations of policy easing to soften the landing of a slowing economy. Trade data is due around 0200 GMT. [CNY/]

Other notable moves in overnight trade included the Canadian dollar’s retreat from a two-month high as oil prices eased and a rise in the safe-haven Swiss franc to a ten-week peak of 0.9093 per dollar. [MKTS/GLOB]

 

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

Economy

Venezuela Holds Rare Call With Bondholders as Economy Recovers – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Venezuela’s government is making a fresh attempt to open channels with international investors, presenting potential deals in the oil and tourism sectors and talking up new economic growth data. 

Advisers, led by top economic aide Patricio Rivera, held an hour-long call on Wednesday with at least two dozen bondholders and fund managers from the U.S. and Europe, according to four people with direct knowledge of the conversation. The call was organized by the Venezuela Spain Chamber of Industry and Commerce. 

Rivera, a former Ecuadorian Finance minister who is spearheading reforms aimed at liberalizing Venezuela’s economy, briefed the investors on policy shifts and the government’s commitment to become more market friendly, the people said. He also said the government was open for investments in several sectors, from oil and minerals to tourism, the people said.  

Rivera did not respond to a request for comment. 

Venezuela has had limited contact with debt holders since it defaulted on bonds in 2017. It owes at least $60 billion plus interest on those defaulted notes. The call comes as the country breaks a seven-year recession, posting economic growth of  7.6% in the third quarter of 2021, according to preliminary data, and as it exits a four-year bout of hyperinflation. 

Despite the new outreach, Venezuela remains under U.S. economic sanctions that pose an important roadblock to American bondholders. 

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Xi resets policy priorities to boost economy – The Tribune India

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Yogesh Gupta

Former Ambassador

China’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), held at Beijing from December 8 to 10, 2021, decided that all stakeholders should work actively to maintain stability in the macro-economy in view of new challenges as the country holds the Winter Olympics from February 4 to 20, 2022, and the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) later this year. What made the economic planners to rethink the policy direction was the sharp dip in China’s GDP growth rate from 18.3% in Quarter 1 of 2021 to 7.9% in Q2, 4.9% in Q3 and 4% in Q4.

Structural changes ordered by President Xi Jinping such as reducing loans to the real estate sector, lower emission targets resulting in power cuts and the zero tolerance to Covid-19 had played an important role in decelerating the economic growth. Xi is personally involved in directing the real estate policies as he considers the unchecked growth of this sector as posing a threat to China’s economic stability.

New measures undertaken by the Xi regime included severe restrictions on giving bank loans, allow hugely indebted developers to default to rein in large unproductive expenditure and announcement of a property tax on a trial basis in certain provinces to discourage the purchase of multiple properties to curb speculation. Given that the real estate sector accounts for 29% of the Chinese economy, these measures, according to some economists, may reduce China’s GDP growth by about 0.5% in 2022 and thereafter. These restrictions have strained the local government’s finances, as selling land is an important source of revenue. Several local governments slashed the salaries of their staff, weakening the consumption.

In the last two years, China has undertaken several measures to reduce its greenhouse emissions, including controlling of its coal-fired power plants to meet its targets of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, lower the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% (from 2005 level) by 2030, increase the share of non-fossil fuels and forest stock. Decrease in power generation by coal-fired plants and rationing since September 2021 disrupted industrial production in many provinces as several industries were forced to cut production and reduce jobs. Recurrent outbreaks of Covid in some areas and China’s zero tolerance approach again forced several businesses to close and confined about 20 million people at home. The working of several companies in technology, education and gaming sectors was adversely impacted due to the regulatory actions, resulting in lower earnings and loss of jobs.

At the CEWC, it was felt that new external challenges had arisen as President Biden had not only continued the policies of his predecessor but also taken a harder line with his allies towards China. The Comprehensive Investment Agreement with the EU had remained frozen and China’s relations with Australia and Japan had deteriorated. These countries had become more vociferous in criticism of China’s human rights record and applied a number of sanctions against the Chinese companies and individuals for investments and exports. Several Chinese leaders appeared nervous about the slowing of economic growth in 2022 as Xi is expected to seek an unprecedented third term as President. They advised him that priority should shift to maintaining growth and stability so that the Chinese economy could convey a picture of strength.

Amid deterioration in China’s external environment, the conference identified securing supplies of primary products such as food, soybean, minerals and energy as a priority to prepare for the post-Covid world. “The Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly held in their own hands at all times,” Xi emphasised. He underlined the need to establish a strategic materials reserve to secure minimum needs at critical moments and work on a comprehensive conservation strategy. Other four priorities agreed were “common prosperity, capital regulation, defusing major financial risks and carbon neutrality. Concerns were expressed at the high level of unemployment among the migrants, the youth and possible outflow of foreign exchange as the US dollar strengthened following rise in the interest rates.

In view of these reasons, it was agreed that the government would have to give bigger policy support to the economy. China’s central bank had also conveyed dovish signals, cutting the reserve requirement ratio to the banks in a departure from central banks in the developed countries. Though the policymakers remained committed to structural reforms, it was agreed to slow down the regulatory crackdown and provide targeted support to SMEs, first time homebuyers, more funding for technology innovation and green investments.

China’s foreign trade made impressive gains in 2021, reaching $6.05 trillion as it functioned as a supply house to the rest of the Covid-stricken world. Trade with the US soared by 28.7% ($755.6 billion) and India by 43.3% (total $125.66 billion, Indian exports $28.14 billion, imports $97.52 billion). The increased global demand was chiefly responsible for 8.1% growth of China’s economy in 2021.

Chinese leaders are worried that external demand may not sustain as other major economies come out of Covid and start exporting this year. Consumption in China has not moved beyond 55% of the GDP (54.3% in 2020) in recent years due to the saving habits of the Chinese people for expenditure on health, education and old age. The government is, therefore, forced time and again to resort to big investments to drive up the growth rates.

It is now trying to increase investments in research and innovation (its R&D expenditure reached 2.4% of GDP in 2020), adoption of intelligent technologies and digital economy. While these technologies will yield efficiencies and mitigate to some extent the adverse impact of declining workforce, these will not lessen the latter’s adverse impact on lowering consumption. China will, therefore, be forced to accept sub-5% economic growth in the coming years as it rebalances its economy away from non-productive expenditures and starts experiencing the negative effects of population decline.

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The so-called 'gig economy' is on the rise — here's what that means for Alberta workers – CBC.ca

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They’re the people who pick you up in an Uber or deliver groceries to your door — so-called gig workers, referred to as “independent contractors” by the companies for which they work — and across Canada, there’s an ongoing debate about the future of their industry.

Last month, a report from the Ontario Workforce Recovery Advisory Committee recommended that those who work in the “gig economy” — for example, working for apps such as Uber and Skip The Dishes — should be guaranteed a minimum wage, along with some other protections.

No exact analog to that committee currently exists in Alberta. A spokesperson for Tyler Shandro, Alberta’s minister of labour and immigration, said the provincial government’s primary commitment is to support workers as the economy continues to recover.

“Alberta’s government continues to monitor the gig economy, as it is an evolving sector with unique needs,” said Joseph Dow in an email.

According to a study released by Statistics Canada in 2019, around eight per cent of all workers in Canada participated in gig work in 2016, up from 5.5 per cent in 2005. 

Uber Eats courier Spencer Thompson is shown in Toronto in a 2021 file photo. On the heels of new recommendations being made for gig workers by the Ontario provincial government, an Alberta labour leader says a conversation needs to be had around the future of gig work in the province. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)

Efforts to update laws around how gig workers are paid and what benefits they are entitled to has been a contentious issue over the past few years. 

During the last federal election campaign, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said that the 1.7 million Canadians working in the gig economy were “left behind” during the pandemic.

An Alberta labour leader says despite the same issues existing for those participating in Alberta’s gig economy — low wages, insecurity and lack of benefits — no conversation is being had provincially about the supports available for these workers.

“I’m profoundly concerned about the shift towards gig work,” said Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour.

“It’s bad for individual workers. But I would argue that it’s just as bad for the economy, because when people are faced with that kind of insecurity, they can’t participate in the economy in the same way as workers in other sectors.”

Brandon Mundy, a delivery driver with Instacart in Calgary, says working in the gig economy has helped him through some difficult times — but he’s hoping changes are introduced to mitigate the risks of working in a competitive and saturated market. (Helen Pike/CBC)

Brandon Mundy is a delivery worker with Instacart, a grocery delivery service.

He previously delivered with food delivery platform DoorDash, but said he stopped working for that service due to long periods of delays between orders.

“It can get incredibly competitive these days, because of how saturated the delivery driver industry is right now,” he said.

Even though Mundy said he tends to make more working with Instacart, he’s noticed smaller payouts recently. Plus, he’s been putting significant wear and tear on his vehicle.

“I would sure hope [Alberta] introduces support for gig workers,” Mundy said. “Especially with how popular it is now, especially through COVID.”

Efforts to unionize and departures of platforms

Those gig workers completing tasks for apps like Uber and Lyft are considered independent contractors by the companies. 

Therefore, the company isn’t obliged to pay minimum wage or other protections — but that is a “smoke screen,” said Jim Stanford, economist and director of the Vancouver-based Centre for Future Work.

“Courts and labour regulators in many countries around the world are recognizing that and saying, no, just because you assign the work over a smartphone doesn’t mean they’re not your effective employee,” Stanford said.

Brandon Mundy, a delivery driver with Instacart, says the time it takes to buy groceries from a store, and then deliver them to a home, isn’t always translating into reliable profits these days. He said an oversaturated market and mitigating concerns like vehicle repair can make things more challenging. (Helen Pike/CBC)

Uber Canada previously referred CBC News to a proposal that would provide a benefit fund to workers, adding that the company attempts to prioritize “what drivers and delivery people want: flexibility plus benefits.”

Efforts by workers to secure more benefits have also led to certain app-based platforms reconsidering their availability within Canada.

In 2020, food delivery service Foodora announced it would leave Canada in the wake of workers attempting to unionize. 

Stanford said such moves suggested that business models of gig platforms depended on the “exploitation of gig workers.”

“That should really be a warning sign for us that this is not a business model that we should encourage in Canada. We have to make sure that they’re subject to the same rules and responsibilities as any other employer,” he said. 

“Otherwise, this cancer, which is spreading through the labour market, will continue to undermine wages and working conditions in all kinds of industries.”

Ontario’s recent proposal did not include everything the union-backed group Gig Workers United called for, including for gig workers to receive full employee protections.

In early December, the European Union announced draft legislation that would provide employee rights to gig economy workers, a move that would affect millions of workers.

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