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Domestic politics to set US priorities abroad

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Luv Puri

Journalist and author

The US elections scheduled in November are being followed with keen interest across the world. As the political slugfest picks up, though much diluted by the spread of Covid-19, there will be a greater scrutiny of the foreign policy orientations of the two parties.

Foreign policy is never a neat calculus devised by professionals in isolation. The popular sentiment of the citizenry, particularly in a country with robust democratic credentials, weighs heavily on the ruling political party. In this connection, to better understand the future trajectory of the US foreign policy under either of the two parties, one may have to factor in the domestic landscape of the country and how the two parties will potentially respond to the same.

President Trump’s response to the many issues is an affirmation to the perceived views of his core constituency in Red states that seek a more muscular foreign policy. In the same vein, the Democratic Party is not immune to the views of its core vote bank. Take Iran for instance. President Trump terminated the participation of US in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, popularly known as the Iran nuclear deal, and has imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran. A decision was taken to assassinate Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and he justified the assassination on account of alleged immediate security threats facing the country from Iran. Iran is seen by many Americans, particularly citizens of a particular age-group, through the lens of the hostage crisis in 1979. Fifty-two American diplomats and citizens were held hostage for 444 days — from November 4, 1979, to January 20, 1981. Many attribute the electoral loss of President Jimmy Carter, a Democratic Party leader, to the impact of the hostage crisis. After 1981, no US President dared to engage Iran, fearing that this would be unpopular domestically.

President Trump’s major impulse is to bring back the US troops from foreign lands. The swing states in the Mid-West and other Republican states such as Texas and Southern states are the prime catchment area for the US army and a vast chunk of the US army soldiers serving in the war theatres, including Afghanistan, comes from this area. Early in his tenure, President Obama, who won the critical mid-western states of Ohio and Wisconsin, was determined to bring back the troops from Iraq. He succeeded in doing that in Iraq.

On Afghanistan, the situation proved to be a bit tricky. After initial reservation, President Obama took time to agree to troops surge in 2009. In 2020, the Democratic Party foreign policy mandarins are in a quandary as they know from experience of the need to balance the two equations that is to bring back the troops. On the other hand, they don’t want the Taliban to fill the vacuum. The draft of the 2020 Democratic Party Platform is a reflection of this. It says, “Our war in Afghanistan is the longest war in American history, with the youngest US troops now fighting a war that was launched before they were even born.”

“The Democrats are committed to a durable and inclusive political settlement in Afghanistan that ensures that the al-Qaeda isn’t allowed to reconstitute, the Islamic State (ISIS) isn’t allowed to grow, and the international community can help Afghans safeguard hard-fought gains, especially for women and girls.”

There are other tectonic internal demographic movement shifts taking place within the US. Some of the Southern states like North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Florida are at the cusp of becoming Blue. There is a net gain of the Democrats migrating from the North-Eastern states like New York, which are bastions of Democratic Party, to Red States. For instance, the migration is taking place to a liberal oasis like Austin in Texas. There is African-American migration to Atlanta, Georgia. This is referred to as the reverse migration as many African-Americans had originally moved from the South to North-East and the Mid-West from 1920-1970 due to factors such as the introduction of mechanical cotton picker, demand for wartime factory labour and also relatively freer environment for African-Americans. The present move to the South from North-East and Mid-West is on account of a friendly weather, new economic opportunities on account of tech giants and because it’s relatively cheaper to live in.

In the realm of economic trade policies, both parties are sensitive to the concerns of the electorate in swing states of the Mid-West that have a big stake in the future of manufacturing jobs in the US. President Trump’s opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a reflection of his desire to appeal to the Mid-West electorate. This is not too different from what was finally decided by President Obama after his initial approval of the deal and he then succumbed to the opposition from the Democratic base.

Trump’s protectionism has proved to be tricky in an inter-dependent world. China’s reaction to his protectionist policy led to a trade war as Trump’s core base in the agricultural-dominant economies of the South bore the direct brunt of his protectionist policy. In retaliation to the imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods, China stopped the import of corn, soybean and other commodities from the southern states like South Carolina. After an escalating trade war of over two years, President Trump had to re-negotiate with China and both sides made compromises to resume trade.

In a summary of staff data obtained by the NBC News, the Biden campaign disclosed that 36 per cent of the senior advisors are people of colour. Many of them will be foreign born or second generation Americans. In contrast, the Trump campaign has about 25 per cent of its senior staff who are people of colour. A diverse team comes with the advantage of a greater personal understanding of foreign policy nuances.

Therefore, one of the important vectors influencing the US foreign policy in the next four years will be the varying domestic impulses that influence the design of policies of the party in power.

Source:- The Tribune India

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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