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Donald Trump is at his weakest political position in years

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Former President Donald Trump is giving it another go. He announced last week that he’s trying to become only the second man (after Grover Cleveland) to be elected to non-consecutive terms as US president.

Trump’s move comes at a time when his political brand is at its weakest point since his first presidential bid in 2015-2016. He does remain a force to be reckoned with in GOP circles, and the news that the Justice Department has appointed a special counsel to oversee investigations related to the former president could elicit a rally-around-Trump effect among Republicans. Nevertheless, it’s clear his power within the party has diminished following the 2022 midterm elections.

DOJ announces special counsel for Trump-related Mar-a-Lago and January 6 criminal investigations

 

The easiest way to tell that Trump’s standing isn’t what it once was is to look at the reaction to his 2024 presidential announcement. Many Republican elected officials and conservative media personalities gave it a big yawn.

Trump’s announcement earned him the support of very few elected officials on Capitol Hill. It was much more reminiscent of his first bid in 2015-2016, when Trump initially drew little support from lawmakers in Congress. The difference this time, of course, is that Trump is the former leader of the party whom most Republican members of Congress had endorsed in 2020 instead of a political neophyte like he was seven years ago.

Instead, there seems to be about as many senators (one) already backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as there are for Trump. This is important because endorsements from party officials have historically been correlated with presidential primary success.

Will DeSantis run in 2024? Politico reporter goes over some factors
 

I should note that the lack of endorsements didn’t stop Trump in 2016, and it may not this time either.

Trump’s first bid may have been an aberration, though. He was facing off against more than a dozen competitors who split support among the conservative political class. This is especially a problem in Republican primaries, which tend to be winner-take-all (or most) affairs, unlike Democratic primaries, which award delegates proportionally. Trump needed well less than half of the GOP vote to accumulate a lot of delegates quickly in 2016.

He may not get the same divided opposition in the 2024 cycle. The only obvious competitor to Trump at this point is DeSantis.

The Florida governor’s rise is perhaps the most important development in the 2024 Republican field. Trump is still ahead in a number of national primary polls, but DeSantis is polling better in early national polls than any non-Trump candidate did for much of the 2016 primary cycle.

In his home state of Florida, DeSantis is outright beating Trump in almost every poll. In CNN’s exit poll of 2022 midterm voters in Florida, more Republicans wanted DeSantis to run in 2024 than they did Trump.

As Trump blusters, DeSantis builds his case but tells people to ‘chill out’ with 2024 talk

 

DeSantis’ Florida advantage is notable for a number of reasons, besides the fact that the state contains a boatload of Republican delegates, who will likely be allocated winner-take-all.

First, Florida is Trump’s home state too, and it’s the only place where the two men are on equal footing in terms of name recognition. DeSantis’ lead is a sign that as Republicans nationwide get to know him better, they could move toward him. (DeSantis tends to have a higher favorable rating than Trump nationally among Republicans who are familiar with both men.)

Second, Trump won Florida in the 2016 primaries against home-state Sen. Marco Rubio. The fact that DeSantis is now besting him there in the polls is arguably an indication that Trump is in a weaker position than he had been in 2016.

But Trump’s problems go beyond just party officials and polls. Trump was able to defy conventional wisdom in 2016 because he received an outsize amount of media attention. He basically crowded out the competition.

This time, it won’t be so easy. I’ve pointed out previously that DeSantis has shown a knack for generating a lot of media attention on Fox News. Trump’s name wasn’t mentioned until page 26 of the Rupert Murdoch-run New York Post (whose editorial page leans to the right) on the day after his 2024 announcement. Murdoch leads the company that owns Fox News as well.

And if Trump wins the primary, he’ll still have to win a general election. That won’t be easy, as the 2022 midterms showed.

How Joe Biden and the Democratic Party defied midterm history

 

I noted last week that Trump’s presence was one of the major reasons that Democrats did surprisingly well in the midterm elections. By being in the headlines so much and acting like a quasi-incumbent, Trump helped to nullify what is normally a major advantage for the opposition party in midterm elections with an unpopular incumbent in the White House.

Now, you could have envisioned a universe in which Trump’s larger-than-life personality may have been helpful if he were popular.

Instead, Trump’s favorable rating is at one of its lowest points in the last five years: 39%, according to the 2022 exit poll. That compares with a 46% favorable rating in the 2020 exit poll and a 45% job approval rating in the 2018 exit poll.

In a presidential election in which Trump’s name is actually on the ballot, you could imagine his unpopularity being even more of a factor.

We already know from history that it won’t be easy for Trump. While incumbent presidents (like Joe Biden) are at a disadvantage in midterms, they benefit from their incumbency in presidential elections. Elected incumbents win more than 60% of the time when they run for another term.

The bottom line is that Trump’s got an uphill climb ahead of him for 2024 – both in a GOP primary and in a general election. He can certainly win a second term, but the odds are currently against him.

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Here is the latest on the New Brunswick election

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The New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government, and Susan Holt will become the first woman to lead the province.

Here’s the latest from election night. All times are ADT.

10:15 p.m.

The results of the New Brunswick election are in, and with virtually all of the ballots counted, the Liberals won 31 seats out of 49.

The Progressive Conservatives won 16 seats.

The Green Party won two.

Voter turnout was about 66 per cent.

10 p.m.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has congratulated New Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt for her party’s victory in the provincial election.

Trudeau says on the X platform he’s looking forward to working with Holt to build more homes, protect the country’s two official languages, and improve health care.

9:48 p.m.

During her victory speech tonight in Fredericton, New Brunswick premier-designate Susan Holt thanked all the women who came before her.

Holt will become the first woman to lead the province after her party won a majority government in the New Brunswick election.

The Liberals are elected or leading in 31 of 49 ridings.

9:30 p.m.

Blaine Higgs says he will begin a transition to replace him as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.

After being in power for six years, the Tories lost the election to the Liberals.

Higgs, who lost his seat of Quispamsis, says, “My leadership days are over.”

9:17 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick since 2016, has lost in the riding of Quispamsis.

Higgs, 70, has been premier of New Brunswick since 2018, and was first elected to the legislature in 2010.

8:45 p.m.

When asked about the election results, Progressive Conservative chief of staff Paul D’Astous says that over the last 18 months the party has had to contend with a number of caucus members who disagreed with its policy.

D’Astous says the Tories have also had to own what happened over the last six years, since they came to power in 2018, adding that the voters have spoken.

8:39 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that David Coon, leader of the New Brunswick Green Party, has won the riding of Fredericton Lincoln.

Coon, 67, has been leader of the party since 2014, the year he was first elected to the legislature.

8:36 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that the New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government in the provincial election.

Party leader Susan Holt will become the first woman premier in the province’s history.

8:20 p.m.

Early returns show a number of close races across the province, with the Liberals off to an early lead.

Liberal campaign manager Katie Davey says the results will show whether party leader Susan Holt, a relative newcomer, was able to capture the attention and trust of the people of New Brunswick.

Davey says she believes voters have welcomed Holt and her message, which focused on pocketbook issues, especially health care.

8 p.m.

Polls have closed.

Eyes will be on a number of key ridings including Fredericton South-Silverwood, where Liberal Leader Susan Holt is vying for a seat; Saint John Harbour, which has been competitive between the Tories and Liberals in recent elections; and Moncton East, a redrawn Tory-held riding that the Liberals have targeted.

At dissolution, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Greens had three, there was one Independent and there were four vacancies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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A look at Susan Holt, Liberal premier-designate of New Brunswick

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FREDERICTON – A look at Susan Holt, premier-designate and leader of the New Brunswick Liberal party.

Born: April 22, 1977.

Early years: Raised in Fredericton, she attended Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., and then spent a year in Toronto before moving abroad for three years, spending time in Australia and India.

Education: Earned a bachelor of arts in economics and a bachelor of science in chemistry from Queen’s University.

Family: Lives in Fredericton with her husband, Jon Holt, and three young daughters.

Hobbies: Running, visiting the farmers market in Fredericton with her family every Saturday.

Before politics: CEO of the Fredericton Chamber of Commerce, CEO of the New Brunswick Business Council, civil servant, business lobbyist, advocate, consultant and executive with an IT service company that trains and employs Indigenous people.

Politics: Worked as an adviser to former Liberal premier Brian Gallant. Won the leadership of the provincial Liberal party in August 2022 and was elected to the legislature in an April 2023 byelection.

Quote: “We don’t take it lightly that you have put your trust in myself and my team, and you have hope for a brighter future. But that hope I know is short-lived and it will be on us to deliver authentically, on the ground, and openly and transparently.” — Susan Holt, in her speech to supporters in Fredericton after the Liberals won a majority government on Oct. 21, 2024.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick Liberals win majority, Susan Holt first woman to lead province

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick voters have elected a Liberal majority government, tossing out the incumbent Progressive Conservatives after six years in power and handing the reins to the first woman ever to lead the province.

Liberal Leader Susan Holt is a relative newcomer to the province’s political scene, having won a byelection last year, eight months after she became the first woman to win the leadership of the party.

The Liberals appeared poised to take 31 of 49 seats to the Conservatives’ 16 and the Greens two.

Holt, 47, led the Liberals to victory after a 33-day campaign, thwarting Blaine Higgs’s bid to secure a third term as Tory premier.

The Liberal win marks a strong repudiation of Higgs’s pronounced shift to more socially conservative policies.

Higgs, meanwhile, lost in his riding of Quispamsis. In a speech to supporters in the riding, he confirmed that he would begin a leadership transition process.

As the Liberals secured their majority, Green Party Leader David Coon thanked his supporters and pledged to continue building the party, but he then turned his sights on the premier. “One thing is for sure,” he told a crowd gathered at Dolan’s Pub in Fredericton, “we know that Blaine Higgs is no longer the premier of this province.”

The election race was largely focused on health care and affordability but was notable for the remarkably dissimilar campaign styles of Holt and Higgs. Holt repeatedly promised to bring a balanced approach to governing, pledging a sharp contrast to Higgs’s “one-man show taking New Brunswick to the far right.”

“We need a government that acts as a partner and not as a dictator from one office in Fredericton,” she said in a recent interview with The Canadian Press.

Higgs focused on the high cost of living, promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent — a pledge that will cost the province about $450 million annually.

Holt spent much of the campaign rolling out proposed fixes for a health-care system racked by a doctor shortage, overcrowded emergency rooms and long wait-times. A former business advocate and public servant, she promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028; remove the provincial sales tax from electricity bills; overhaul mental health services; and impose a three per cent cap on rent increases by 2025.

The 70-year-old Tory leader, a mechanical engineer and former Irving Oil executive, led a low-key campaign, during which he didn’t have any scheduled public events on at least 10 days — and was absent from the second leaders debate on Oct. 9.

Holt missed only two days of campaigning and submitted a 30-page platform with 100 promises, a far heftier document than the Tories’ two-page platform that includes 11 pledges.

When the election was called on Sept. 19, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Green Party had three, there was one Independent and four vacancies. At least 25 seats are needed for a majority.

Higgs was hoping to become the first New Brunswick premier to win three consecutive elections since Liberal Frank McKenna won his third straight majority in 1995. But it was clear from the start that Higgs would have to overcome some big obstacles.

On the first day of the campaign, a national survey showed he had the lowest approval rating of any premier in the country. That same morning, Higgs openly mused about how he was perceived by the public, suggesting people had the wrong idea about who he really is.

“I really wish that people could know me outside of politics,” he said, adding that a sunnier disposition might increase his popularity. “I don’t know whether I’ve got to do comedy hour or I’ve got to smile more.”

Still, Higgs had plenty to boast about, including six consecutive balanced budgets, a significant reduction in the province’s debt, income tax cuts and a booming population.

Higgs’s party was elected to govern in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in almost 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election — marking the first province to go to the polls during the COVID-19 pandemic — and won a slim majority.

Since then, 14 Tory caucus members have stepped down after clashing with the premier, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on conservative policies that represented a hard shift to the right.

A caucus revolt erupted last year after Higgs announced changes to the gender identity policy in schools. When several Tory lawmakers voted for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from cabinet. A bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.

Higgs has also said a Tory government would reject all new applications for supervised drug-consumption sites, renew a legal challenge against the federal carbon pricing scheme and force people into drug treatment if authorities deem they “pose a threat to themselves or others.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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