In the five years leading up to its all-time high in January 2018, Carnival(NYSE: CCL) was a winning investment. Its shares jumped 86% during that time.
It’s been a different story since then, though. This cruise stock currently sits 80% below its peak price. That’s even after shares soared 76% since the start of 2023 (as of April 18).
Does this setup on the dip make Carnival a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity? Here’s what investors need to know.
Smooth sailing
Carnival’s business is giving its shareholders plenty of reasons to be optimistic. In fiscal 2023, which ended Nov. 30, the company reported revenue of $21.6 billion, a record figure that was up 77% year over year. This number exceeded the previous record, which came in fiscal 2019.
The momentum carried over into the first quarter of 2024. During that 12-week stretch, the company hit a first-quarter record for sales. Key to this strong momentum is, without a surprise, robust demand from consumers.
“This has been a fantastic start to the year. We delivered another strong quarter that outperformed guidance on every measure, while concluding a monumental wave season that achieved all-time high booking volumes at considerably higher prices,” CEO Josh Weinstein highlighted in the latest earnings press release.
Warren Buffett, who many consider the greatest investor ever, once said that he believes the mark of a wonderful business is one that can raise prices with minimal pushback from customers. Carnival is currently demonstrating this characteristic.
It will be interesting to see if the recent trends are simply a one-hit wonder or a more sustainable development. The bulls are definitely hoping it’s the latter.
But this is a business that is recovering nicely from the worst days of the pandemic. At one point, Carnival was forced to halt its operations temporarily to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Revenue took a huge hit, dropping 91% between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2021.
Now that the company has bounced back and looks to be on solid footing, I’m sure it’s starting to catch the attention of investors. Shares still trade at a reasonable forward P/E of 14.
Rough waters
It’s easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight, but I don’t necessarily think it’s shocking to see Carnival putting up such strong numbers right now. Unless you were convinced that demand for cruise travel would permanently fall off a cliff, I bet you expected that this business would experience a reversion to the mean.
For what it’s worth, Wall Street believes the good times won’t last very long. Analysts see annual revenue gains shrinking going forward, with fiscal 2026 sales rising by just 1.9% compared to the prior year.
It’s easy for investors to become short-sighted and focus too much on financial results from one year or one quarter. But it’s best to think about the bigger picture, turning our attention to the long term.
To be clear, I still believe Carnival is an extremely risky business to own. As of Feb. 29, the company had a massive debt load of $31 billion. A lot of this capital was raised to buy the company time throughout the pandemic. Management has used cash to pay down the principal. But that’s a huge burden that adds tremendous financial risk should there be economic weakness.
Speaking of the economy, demand for cruise trips demonstrates cyclicality, as it’s a discretionary purchase. I’m concerned about how Carnival will fare in a potential recessionary scenario, which could happen unpredictably.
It might be smooth sailing for Carnival right now, but there are always rough waters to worry about. I don’t believe this is a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity.
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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.
“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.
Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.
But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.
Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.
“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.
“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.
A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.
It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.
More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.
“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.
In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.
“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
