Connect with us

Economy

ECB Confronts Shifting Markets as Economy Stays Frozen: Eco Week – BNN

Published

 on


(Bloomberg) — European Central Bank officials will set policy this week against a backdrop of investors betting on a global upturn even as the euro zone remains mired in pandemic lockdowns and painfully slow vaccinations.

President Christine Lagarde will need to test her institution’s current stimulus plans against the challenges presented by those contrasting situations. While some of her colleagues have signaled concern over rising global bond yields, driven partly by the faster vaccine drive and bigger stimulus plans of the U.S., others are taking it in their stride for now. Investors will be watching Monday’s bond-buying data to see if the ECB ramped up purchases last week.

Meanwhile the ECB will assess the damage to growth from another lost quarter, with lockdowns throughout the euro region freezing activity as health authorities’ immunization efforts struggle to gain traction compared with the U.K. and U.S. Along with the decision on Thursday, Lagarde will unveil new quarterly forecasts at a press conference.

Where the Frankfurt institution can take some comfort is that it already has extensive stimulus in place. The centerpiece of that is its pandemic purchase program, whose original aim was to keep yields in check. That’s currently set to last at least another year.

But sooner or later, as officials observe how a recovery takes shape, they are going to have to decide whether the support currently pledged with that tool is enough.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“The ECB has emphasized its intention to maintain favorable financing conditions in an effort to support the recovery. We anticipate a clear message from the Governing Council that higher bond yields are triggering an unwarranted tightening of conditions.”

–Maeva Cousin, David Powell and Jamie Rush. For full preview, click here.

Elsewhere, Canada, Serbia and Kazakhstan are among countries with interest-rate decisions, the OECD presents its latest economic forecasts, and the U.K. will release data that may show the initial impact of post-Brexit trading.

Click here for what happened last week and below is our wrap of what is coming up in the global economy.

U.S. and Canada

Investors in the U.S. are watching for the latest consumer price data Wednesday as debate heats up over fears of inflation rising in pockets of the economy. Other reports due out this week include updates on the federal budget, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment. Federal Reserve policy makers are in blackout ahead of the central bank’s next meeting on March 16-17.

President Joe Biden’s signature $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill passed the Senate on Saturday, following a more than 25-hour marathon of amendment votes that was completed only after a lengthy interruption while Democrats settled an intra-party dispute over unemployment aid. The measure, the American Rescue Plan Act, now heads back to the House, where Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said a vote will be held Tuesday.

Bank of Canada policy makers meeting Wednesday are likely to indicate they have no plans to withdraw stimulus from the economy any time soon, even as they prepare to adjust their quantitative easing program.

  • For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the U.S.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

A turning point in the U.K.’s pandemic response is due on Monday, when schools in England reopen. The measure is an initial step unveiled as part of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to unlock the economy as vaccinations roll out.

Britain’s other pressing economic challenge, its exit from the European Union, may feature in gross domestic product for January. That report on Friday will reveal a glimpse of the growth impact from the country’s new trading relationship with the bloc as of the start of this year, in addition to the third lockdown.

The U.K.’s two most senior economic policy makers will also speak, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivering a speech, and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak testifying to Parliament’s Treasury Committee about last week’s budget.

In the euro region, policy makers will be bound to a quiet period before the ECB decision later in the week. German industrial production data for January on Monday will signal how the factory base there is weathering the global slump and a continuing lockdown.

Elsewhere on the European continent, Serbia’s central bank will release its latest policy decision on Thursday, showing whether officials will keep the interest rate on hold at 1% for a third month after a surprise cut to that level in December.

Data on Tuesday will probably show the South African economy still contracted from a year earlier in the three months through December, even as it’s expected to reflect strong quarter-on-quarter annualized expansion. Israel will move into the next stage of reopening its economy from lockdown restrictions, with restaurants and cafes that will be allowed to open for full service in the world’s most vaccinated country.

  • For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA

Asia

Chinese trade data released Sunday, inflation numbers on Wednesday and credit figures for February will all be closely watched after PMIs pointed to slowing momentum for the world’s No. 2 economy.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya speaks on Monday ahead of a policy review later this month. The words of one of the principal architects of yield-curve control will be closely scrutinized for possible signaling from the central bank of what is in the pipeline.

A raft of data including household spending, wages and bankruptcies will show how the Japanese economy was faring during the state of emergency, while revised GDP figures for the last quarter may show slightly slower growth after the release of weaker capital spending data last week.

  • For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia

Latin America

In Chile on Monday, look for year-on-year inflation data to come in right around the 3% target, where expectations appear well-anchored, yet again.

On Tuesday, Mexico’s inflation reports are the next-to-last price readings before the central bank’s March 25 meeting. The figures here may keep a quarter-point interest rate cut in play.

In Brazil events have overtaken policy, with the February report out Thursday expected to show inflation bumping up against the top of target range. Economists see a strong likelihood of a half-point interest rate increase at next week’s central bank meeting while swap traders have priced that in with six more to follow by year-end.

Later in the day, Argentina’s statistics agency posts consumer price data, and Peru’s central bank is expected to keep the key rate unchanged at 0.25%.

The week concludes with January reports on Brazilian retail sales and Mexico’s industrial production.

  • For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Major economies should inject 'significant' support for global economy: Yellen – TheChronicleHerald.ca

Published

 on


By Andrea Shalal and David Lawder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday warned of the risk of a permanence divergence in the global economy in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, and urged major economies to inject significant new fiscal support to secure a robust recovery.

In a statement to the steering committees of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Yellen underscored the need for major economies to continue supporting developing countries as they grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and high debt burdens.

She urged the World Bank to help countries, particularly the world’s poorest, get timely access to COVID-19 vaccines, and backed accelerated negotiation to replenish the World Bank’s International Development Association fund for the poorest countries – a goal the bank aims to reach by December.

The United States had pledged $4 billion to the COVAX global vaccine distribution initiative, Yellen said, urging others to join in.

She signalled that Washington, which so far has only loaned vaccines to Mexico and Canada, could provide excess doses to other countries in the future.

“The United States will continue to work with partners to increase vaccine supplies, explore sharing excess vaccines, and make sure financing does not become an obstacle for global vaccination,” Yellen said, without providing any details.

Yellen’s comments reflect the Biden administration’s focus on strong international cooperation to tackle global challenges – a sharp departure from the “go-it-alone” approach pursued by former President Donald Trump’s administration.

“The (COVID-19) crisis has exacerbated the trend of rising income inequality, raising concerns about a divergent path within and across countries. We also face the existential threat of climate change. We can only resolve these problems through strong international cooperation,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for her first meeting with the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee and the World Bank’s Development Committee.

The former head of the Federal Reserve said substantial fiscal and monetary support from major economies had improved the global economic outlook significantly, but more efforts were needed.

Washington was implementing a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan and was working on another large infrastructure package, Yellen said, urging other major economies to take similar actions.

“The job is not yet done, given high uncertainty and the risk of permanent scarring,” she said. “I urge major economies to not just avoid removing support too early, but to strive to provide significant amounts of new fiscal support to secure a robust recovery.”

Yellen said developing countries should work with the IMF and World Bank on economic policies and structural reforms and seek full-fledged IMF financing programs, which carry conditions, where necessary. Some countries may need deeper debt treatment, she added.

She called on all creditors to “fully and transparently” implement the Group of 20’s common framework for debt treatments to avoid “unnecessary delays that can prolong debt overhangs and exacerbate growth shocks.”

She also urged the World Bank to lead on “transformative climate investments” and to continue to set an aggressive agenda on climate and the green recovery from the crisis.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal and David Lawder; Editing by Toby Chopra and Paul Simao)

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Canadian dollar pulls back from two-week high ahead of trade data

Published

 on

Canadian dollar

TORONTO (Reuters) -The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as concern rose about Canada‘s third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and investors awaited domestic economic data that could offer clues on the Bank of Canada‘s policy outlook.

The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.2573 to the greenback, or 79.54 U.S. cents, having pulled back from its strongest level since March 22 on Monday at 1.2497.

Canada‘s trade report for February is due on Wednesday, while the March employment report is due on Friday.

“Our expectation is for a little bit stronger CAD on the back of some positive data,” said Kyle Dahms, economist at National Bank of Canada.

He expects Canada‘s current account balance to turn positive over the coming months, helped by higher commodity prices, and that the Bank of Canada will cut its bond purchases when it makes its next interest rate announcement on April 21.

Such a move would put the Canadian central bank at odds with some peers, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, which have said they will maintain or even increase the pace of bond-buying.

The IMF raised its 2021 growth forecast for Canada by 1.4 percentage points to 5%, the biggest upgrade among G7 economies, while strong economic data from China and the United States helped to lift the price of oil, one of Canada‘s major exports. U.S. crude prices settled 1.2% higher at $59.33 a barrel.

Still, Canada‘s hospitalizations are surging as a third wave of the pandemic sweeps across much of the country, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said.

Canadian government bond yields were lower across a flatter curve in tandem with U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year touched its lowest level since March 29 at 1.485% before edging up to 1.490%, down 6.5 basis points on the day.

(Reporting by Fergal SmithEditing by Paul Simao and Jonathan Oatis)

Continue Reading

Economy

TSX rises 0.41% to 19,104.14

Published

 on

* The Toronto Stock Exchange’s TSX rises 0.41 percent to 19,104.14

* Leading the index were OceanaGold Corp <OGC.TO​>, up 6.8%, Silvercorp Metals Inc​, up 6.6%, and Real Matters Inc​, higher by 6.5%.

* Lagging shares were OrganiGram Holdings Inc​​, down 5.0%, Aphria Inc​, down 4.8%, and Denison Mines Corp​, lower by 4.3%.

* On the TSX 163 issues rose and 65 fell as a 2.5-to-1 ratio favored advancers. There were 23 new highs and no new lows, with total volume of 205.4 million shares.

* The most heavily traded shares by volume were Toronto-dominion Bank, Tc Energy Corp and Bank Of Nova Scotia.

* The TSX’s energy group rose 1.14 points, or 1.0%, while the financials sector slipped 0.09 points, or 0.0%.

* West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.94%, or $0.55, to $59.2 a barrel. Brent crude  rose 0.87%, or $0.54, to $62.69 [O/R]

* The TSX is up 9.6% for the year.

Continue Reading

Trending