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Economic paralysis: Coronavirus slams brakes on China economy – Aljazeera.com

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Everyone knew the coronavirus outbreak was hurting China’s economy. But the latest data show just how bad the pain has been and could continue to be for some time.

China’s industrial output contracted at the sharpest pace in 30 years in the first two months of the year as the fast-spreading virus and strict containment measures severely disrupted the world’s second-largest economy, data showed on Monday.

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Urban investment and retail sales also fell sharply for the first time on record, reinforcing views that the epidemic may have cut China’s economic growth in half in the first quarter.

Industrial output fell by a much worse-than-expected 13.5 percent in January-February from the same period a year earlier, the weakest reading since January 1990 when Reuters news agency records started, and a sharp reversal from the 6.9 percent growth rate in December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.

The median forecast of analysts polled by Reuters was for a rise of 1.5 percent, though estimates varied widely.

Fixed-asset investment – the amount of money companies spend on things like new equipment, buildings or land – fell 24.5 percent year-on-year, compared with 2.8 percent predicted by analysts and 5.4 percent growth in the prior period.

Retail sales shrank 20.5 percent on-year, compared with a rise of 0.8 percent tipped by analysts and skidding from an 8 percent growth rate in December, as consumers fearful of the virus shunned crowded places like shopping malls, restaurants and movie theatres.

Chinese officials said last week that the peak of the epidemic had passed, but analysts warn it could take months before the economy returns to normal. The fast spread of the virus around the world is sparking fears of a global recession that will dampen demand for Chinese goods.

In a statement on Monday, the NBS said the impact from the coronavirus epidemic is controllable and only short-term, adding that authorities would strengthen policy to offset the impact and restore economic and social order.

Mainland China reported an overall drop in new coronavirus infections on Sunday, but major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai continued to wrestle with cases involving infected travellers arriving from abroad.

Prior to a significant worsening of the outbreak, analysts had predicted a rapid recovery for China’s economy, similar to that seen after the SARS epidemic in 2003-2004.

However, the outbreak escalated just as many businesses were closing for the long Lunar New Year holidays in late January, and widespread restrictions on transportation and personal travel, as well as mass quarantines, delayed their reopening for weeks.

The Caixin Purchase Manager’s Index, a private measure of factory activity, plunged to the lowest on record in February, with production and new orders collapsing and signs of hefty layoffs. Shortages of Chinese-made parts and components rapidly rippled through global supply chains as far away as Europe and the United States.

China’s exports fell 17.2 percent in the first two months from a year earlier, while slumping demand pushed producer prices back into deflation, recent data showed.

Factories may not be back to full output until April, some analysts estimate, and consumer confidence may take even longer to recover. Authorities are now on the watch for Chinese nationals who may bring the virus home from other parts of the world.

Citing the twin blow from both supply and demand shocks, analysts polled by Reuters expect China’s first-quarter economic growth could be cut nearly in half to 3.5 percent year-on-year from 6 percent in the previous quarter. Some suspect the economy even contracted on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

For the year, growth was expected to slow to 5.4 percent, which would be the slowest since 1990.

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Reuters news agency

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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September merchandise trade deficit narrows to $1.3 billion: Statistics Canada

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.

The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.

Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.

Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.

In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

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