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Economic turmoil threatens critical real estate development – Investment Executive

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Accelerating inflation is dampening plans for new housing construction, says Steve Marino, vice president of portfolio management at GWL Realty Advisors.

Marino said while interest rates can be a headwind for some real estate developers and investors, that’s not the biggest challenge the industry faces.

“Arguably, the more meaningful impact for developers is high inflation and the associated impact on the cost of construction,” he said. “We’re starting to see some developers pause on plans for new development activity.”

Speaking on the Soundbites podcast this week, Marino said economic factors pose a special challenge to home builders who must assess consumer willingness to pay the kind of rents or home costs that would ensure the necessary risk-adjusted returns to justify moving forward with building projects.

Meanwhile, he said, the demand side of the equation is equally ambivalent.

“We’re seeing waning investor confidence and more conservative lender underwriting,” he said. “Purchasers are concerned about the prospect of potential value erosion, and many are waiting on the sidelines to see where the market settles.”

Indeed, the economic current uncertainty is not the only hurdle the industry has faced in recent months. The Covid-19 pandemic changed rental patterns and caused housing gluts and shortages throughout Canada.

Marino pointed out that suburban rental spaces were popular during lockdowns when people were adjusting to working from home and avoiding crowds. But since the pandemic started to wane, tenants have been returning to inner cities.

“If you think about it, the combination of population circulation restrictions, together with the realities of working from home, made larger suburban units with proximity to green space particularly inviting for occupants,” he said. “As we’ve emerged from Covid circulation restrictions, we’ve seen a significant level of pent-up demand as people are eager to return to living in urban areas, enjoying the vibrancy of our downtown areas.”

Cities, he added, are also a popular destination for immigrants to Canada — a key component of Canada’s economic development program.

He believes governments may need to step up to support the development of sufficient multi-family housing to meet anticipated needs.

“Canada has a very robust immigration target with a forecast of more than 400,000 people per year over the next three years,” he said. “The vast majority of these immigrants will locate in urban areas in pursuit of employment and educational opportunities. To that end, it is critical that all levels of government help support our industry’s efforts to meet the supply shortage.”

The economic climate has given real estate developers a chance to demonstrate one of the most critical traits for success in a fickle industry: flexibility.

“The ability to be nimble in order to adjust to market conditions offers an opportunity to distinguish yourself from the balance of the market,” he said. “That flexibility affords a competitive advantage to be able to respond to market conditions as they evolve and really seek to affect or realize superior risk adjusted returns.”

Marino suggested anyone investing in real estate needs to think long-term in order to successfully navigate through cycles, using a disciplined portfolio investment strategy and key risk-mitigation tactics such as diversification and stringent property underwriting practices.

**

This article is part of the Soundbites program, sponsored by Canada Life. The article was written without sponsor input.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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