Economists expect inflation eased in January, but housing still 'thorn' in BoC's side - Business News - Castanet.net | Canada News Media
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Economists expect inflation eased in January, but housing still 'thorn' in BoC's side – Business News – Castanet.net

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As the Bank of Canada waits for the right moment to start cutting interest rates, some economists are arguing that its decision shouldn’t hinge on the housing market.

Canada’s inflation rate has edged up and down over the last several months after dropping from its 2022 highs as global price pressures fade and the economy cools.

Statistics Canada is set to release its January consumer price index report on Tuesday and forecasters expect Canada’s inflation rate fell. RBC, CIBC and TD all project the annual rate eased to 3.2 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent in December.

Nathan Janzan, RBC’s assistant chief economist says the slowdown was likely driven by energy and food prices.

“Gasoline prices were lower than a year ago in January and food price growth probably continued to slow on a year over-year-basis,” he said.

“I think the attention will be more focused on the other components of CPI, just watching for signs that broader inflation pressures are continuing to slow, if only at a gradual pace.”

As high borrowing costs cause consumers and businesses to pull back on spending, inflation is expected to slowly inch closer to the two per cent target by the end of the year.

But unlike what’s typical when interest rates rise, the housing market won’t be helping the economy slow. Economists widely expect shelter costs to continue soaring this year, making the Bank of Canada’s job that much harder.

“Food and housing are really the ones that are growing at an uncomfortable level and still (remain) the thorn in the side of Bank of Canada,” said James Orlando, TD’s director of economics.

In December, shelter costs were up six per cent from a year ago and grocery prices rose 4.7 per cent annually.

Orlando argues the central bank shouldn’t hold off on cutting interest rates while waiting for the housing market to slow, given that high interest rates aren’t going to help get those costs down.

In a report on Friday, CIBC also noted the central bank isn’t well-positioned to help ease shelter costs.

“Planned reductions in the inflow of foreign students, and perhaps other (government) measures still to come, might be more potent than high interest rates in calming rising rents, while the mortgage interest cost component would be helped by Bank of Canada rate cuts,” the report said.

The Bank of Canada has recently emphasized the outsized role housing has played in propping up inflation. At the interest rate announcement last month, when it opted to continue holding its key interest rate at five per cent, it noted shelter costs are now the primary driver of above-target inflation.

RBC says mortgage interest costs — which are driven by the central bank’s rate hikes — account for a quarter of inflation. If those costs were removed,the bank says inflation would be in the one to three per cent target range.

The Canadian Real Estate Association recently reported home sales picked up in January for a second month in a row. And while prices fell, the association said rising activity suggests the market is starting to “turn a corner.”

The prospect of a rebound is clearly on the Bank of Canada’s mind. In its summary of the deliberations leading to its Jan. 24 rate decision, the central bank said its governing council is concerned that a housing market rebound this spring could keep inflation above its target, even as price growth elsewhere in the economy eases.

Orlando said if the central bank were to cut rates too early, it could cause extra froth in the housing market. But he said says the Bank of Canada should still focus on how the economy overall is faring, rather than fixating too closely on shelter.

“Are you willing to sacrifice the rest of the economy, to bring down shelter inflation? And our analysis shows that you’re not even going to be able to bring down shelter inflation, no matter what you do with interest rates,” he said.

Orlando said to get to two per cent inflation, prices for other goods and services would essentially have to stop growing to compensate for high housing costs.

In a recent speech, governor Tiff Macklem conceded that the central bank can’t do much when it comes to housing costs.

“Housing supply has fallen short of housing demand for many years. There are many reasons why — zoning restrictions, delays and uncertainties in the approval processes, and shortages of skilled workers. None of these are things monetary policy can address,” Macklem said on Feb. 6.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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