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Economists worry growing conflict with China will make Canada and the world poorer

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Canadian domestic politics have helped magnify the most recent dispute between Beijing and Ottawa into a full blown tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats.

While some experts who track relations between China and Canada play the spat down — one called it “pretty trivial” — it’s one more crack contributing to a far more dangerous long-term rupture.

Labelled “global fragmentation,” the issue was raised at a recent International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington, D.C. The current Canadian dispute may represent a further fracturing of the world into competing trade blocs that will not only make us all poorer, but impede crucial talks on shared global threats, including climate change and artificial intelligence.

Diplomacy’s economic impact

Critics of the Canadian government’s handling of threats against Conservative MP Michael Chong’s family in Hong Kong would not see the issue as trivial.

After being pressed by Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly cited China’s “interference in our internal affairs” in declaring Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei persona non grata. As expected, in reply China expelled a Canadian diplomat, Jennifer Lynn Lalonde.

While far less significant than previous disputes with Beijing that in the past led to the long-term imprisonment of innocent Canadians and may have contributed to persistent trade sanctions, the latest Canada-China spat is only one sign of hostility between the world’s free-market democracies and what appears to be an emerging alternative bloc.

Conservative foreign affairs critic Michael Chong has pressed the government for action after his relatives were threatened by China, leading to tit-for-tat expulsions by Canada and China. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
Just this week, China vowed retaliation against European sanctions on Chinese companies accused of aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine. Also this week, the U.S. government announced it had arrested Litang Liang, an American citizen accused of pointing out to China its friends and enemies within the United States.

“Even as we need more international co-operation on multiple fronts, we are facing the spectre of a new Cold War that could see the world fragment into rival economic blocs,” warned IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva earlier this year. “This would be a collective policy mistake that would leave everyone poorer and less secure.”

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem raised the issue in testimony to the Senate standing committee on banking, commerce and the economy last month after discussions in Washington.

‘Cost to global growth’

“The reality is we have all benefited tremendously from an increasingly integrated global trade and investment system and if that goes in reverse, that will certainly have a cost to global growth,” Macklem told senators.

As an open trading economy, said Danielle Goldfarb, vice-president of global affairs, economics and public policy at the Toronto-based research company RIWI, a decline in global trade could hit Canada hard.

“From Canada’s perspective, as a small open economy and a democracy, we always have had an interest in this rules-based multilateral international order, basically, and that’s kind of an imperative for us,” said Goldfarb in a phone conversation this week.

Cost of Living9:00Trading with the frenemy and how Canada-China trade relations move forward

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Goldfarb, who is also a fellow with the Vancouver-based Asia Pacific Foundation, said that until a few years ago, Canadian policy on China by both the current governing Liberals and the Conservatives before them assumed that welcoming the growing giant into global networks would make rules-based trade stronger.

“But we’re seeing something different now,” said Goldfarb.

As Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined in a Washington speech last year, the failure of autocracies like Russia and China to follow what western countries considered free and fair trade rules means democracies must reshape their strategies.

The danger of “decoupling”

“You can’t simply disengage from the second largest economy in the world,” she said, pointing out that China is already beginning to develop policy in the important area of generative artificial intelligence that others, including Canadian AI leader Geoffrey Hinton, say demands global co-operation.

Canada and its allies know it is essential to keep the door open on “global public goods” including AI policy, climate change and avoiding nuclear conflict, said economist Dane Rowlands at Carleton University’s Patterson School of International Affairs in Ottawa. But he said relations with China have never been so bad.

 

Canada braces for retaliation over Chinese diplomat’s expulsion

 

China expelled Jennifer Lynn Lalonde, a Canadian diplomat in Shanghai, just hours after Canada named Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei persona non grata over allegations he tried to intimidate a Conservative MP’s family. Government sources say China could make further retaliatory moves involving trade or security.

“I think it is at a nadir right now; it’s at a low point,” said Rowlands. “I think the diplomatic fighting is something that’s just kind of accompanying the more general bad blood that seems to be out there between different groups of countries in the world.”

At the heart of the growing conflict is the expanding clout of China as an economic and military power that inevitably destabilizes the status quo as it challenges the dominance of the United States and its allies.

“It’s not that the United States has shrunk dramatically in terms of its share of the global economy,” said Rowlands. But the U.S. bloc is no longer able to dictate in world affairs, he added.

Feeling their growing power

“When they set a policy … they wouldn’t really have to care how much other countries bought into the idea,” he said of the U.S. But in their reaction to sanctions on Russia, he said that China and India have shown they can now frustrate U.S. and European policy. That is relatively new and a source of friction.

Goldfarb, Rowlands and many others have said that Canada’s ultimate goal must be to use any influence it has to prevent the conflict between China and the U.S. from escalating into war.

But as the IMF’s Georgieva has described, disruptions short of war could have a serious effect on the world economy.

It is a position Rowlands accepts even if there little proof of an immediate economic impact, but he thinks the IMF’s interests may be different from Canada’s.

“The IMF’s view is that globalization is great,” said Rowlands. “We should just let industries go to wherever they’re going to be more efficient.”

Responding to what some see as Chinese bullying in the Chong case may be one way of pushing back on the diplomatic front.

But Rowlands said that as security concerns grow and China threatens to block essential goods such as rare earth minerals, which it has done, it becomes imperative for Canada and its allies to become more self-sufficient, even if that makes us a little poorer in the short run.

“I think it’s a fair argument to make that by importing goods from overseas and letting them do all the production, that we are losing certain advantages economically, as well as as I mentioned, strategically in terms of security.”

 

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Alouettes receiver Philpot announces he’ll be out for the rest of season

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Montreal Alouettes wide receiver Tyson Philpot has announced he will be out for the rest of the CFL season.

The Delta, B.C., native posted the news on his Instagram page Thursday.

“To Be Continued. Shoutout my team, the fans of the CFL and the whole city of Montreal! I can’t wait to be back healthy and write this next chapter in 2025,” the statement read.

Philpot, 24, injured his foot in a 33-23 win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Aug. 10 and was placed on the six-game injured list the next week.

The six-foot-one, 195-pound receiver had 58 receptions, 779 yards and five touchdowns in nine games for the league-leading Alouettes in his third season.

Philpot scored the game-winning touchdown in Montreal’s Grey Cup win last season to punctuate a six-reception, 63-yard performance.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Tua Tagovailoa sustains concussion after hitting head on turf in Dolphins’ loss to Bills

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sustained a concussion for the third time in his NFL career, leaving his team’s game Thursday night against Buffalo after running into defensive back Damar Hamlin and hitting the back of his head against the turf.

Tagovailoa remained down for about two minutes before getting to his feet and walking to the sideline after the play in the third quarter. He made his way to the tunnel not long afterward, looking into the stands before smiling and departing toward the locker room.

The Dolphins needed almost no time before announcing it was a concussion. The team said he had two during the 2022 season, and Tagovailoa was diagnosed with another concussion when he was a college player at Alabama.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Tagovailoa would get “proper procedural evaluation” and “appropriate care” on Friday.

“The furthest thing from my mind is, ‘What is the timeline?’ We just need to evaluate and just worry about my teammate, like the rest of the guys are,” McDaniel said. “We’ll get more information tomorrow and take it day by day from here.”

Some players saw Tagovailoa in the locker room after the game and said they were encouraged. Tagovailoa spoke with some players and then went home after the game, McDaniel said.

“I have a lot of love for Tua, built a great relationship with him,” said quarterback Skylar Thompson, who replaced Tagovailoa after the injury. “You care about the person more than the player and everybody in the organization would say the same thing. Just really praying for Tua and hopefully everything will come out all right.”

Tagovailoa signed a four-year, $212 million extension before this season — a deal that makes him one of the highest-paid players in the NFL — and was the NFL’s leading passer in Week 1 this season. Tagovailoa left with the Dolphins trailing 31-10, and that was the final score.

“If you know Tua outside of football, you can’t help but feel for him,” Bills quarterback Josh Allen said on Amazon following the game. “He’s a great football player but he’s an even greater human being. He’s one of the best humans on the planet. I’ve got a lot of love for him and I’m just praying for him and his family, hoping everything’s OK. But it’s tough, man. This game of football that we play, it’s got its highs and it’s got its lows — and this is one of the lows.”

Tagovailoa’s college years and first three NFL seasons were marred by injury, though he positioned himself for a big pay bump with an injury-free and productive 2023 as he led the Dolphins into the playoffs. He threw for 29 touchdowns and a league-best 4,624 yards last year.

When, or if, he can come back this season is anyone’s guess. Tagovailoa said in April 2023 that the concussions he had in the 2022 season left him contemplating his playing future. “I think I considered it for a time,” he said then, when asked if he considered stepping away from the game to protect himself.

McDaniel said it’s not his place to say if Tagovailoa should return to football. “He’ll be evaluated and we’ll have conversations and progress as appropriate,” McDaniel said.

Tagovailoa was hurt Thursday on a fourth-down keeper with about 4:30 left in the third. He went straight ahead into Hamlin and did not slide, leading with his right shoulder instead.

Hamlin was the player who suffered a cardiac arrest after making a tackle during a Monday night game in January 2023 at Cincinnati, causing the NFL to suspend a pivotal game that quickly lost significance in the aftermath of a scary scene that unfolded in front of a national television audience.

Tagovailoa wound up on his back, both his hands in the air and Bills players immediately pointed at him as if to suggest there was an injury. Dolphins center Aaron Brewer quickly did the same, waving to the sideline.

Tagovailoa appeared to be making a fist with his right hand as he lay on the ground. It was movement consistent with something that is referred to as the “fencing response,” which can be common after a traumatic brain injury.

Tagovailoa eventually got to his feet. McDaniel grabbed the side of his quarterback’s head and gave him a kiss on the cheek as Tagovailoa departed. Thompson came into the game to take Tagovailoa’s spot.

“I love Tua on and off the football field,” Bills edge Von Miller said. “I’m a huge fan of him. I can empathize and sympathize with him because I’ve been there. I wish him the best.”

Tagovailoa’s history with concussions — and how he has since worked to avoid them — is a huge part of the story of his career, and now comes to the forefront once again.

He had at least two concussions during the 2022 season. He was hurt in a Week 3 game against Buffalo and cleared concussion protocol, though he appeared disoriented on that play but returned to the game.

The NFL later changed its concussion protocol to mandate that if a player shows possible concussion symptoms — including a lack of balance or stability — he must sit out the rest of the game.

Less than a week later, in a Thursday night game at Cincinnati, Tagovailoa was concussed on a scary hit that briefly knocked him unconscious and led to him being taken off the field on a stretcher.

His second known concussion of that season came in a December game against Green Bay, and he didn’t play for the rest of the 2022 season. After that, Tagovailoa began studying ways where he may be able to fall more safely and protect himself against further injury — including studying jiu-jitsu.

“I’m not worried about anything that’s out of my hands,” McDaniel said. “I’m just worried about the human being.”

___

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Too much? Many Americans feel the need to limit their political news, AP-NORC/USAFacts poll finds

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NEW YORK (AP) — When her husband turns on the television to hear news about the upcoming presidential election, that’s often a signal for Lori Johnson Malveaux to leave the room.

It can get to be too much. Often, she’ll go to a TV in another room to watch a movie on the Hallmark Channel or BET. She craves something comforting and entertaining. And in that, she has company.

While about half of Americans say they are following political news “extremely” or “very” closely, about 6 in 10 say they need to limit how much information they consume about the government and politics to avoid feeling overloaded or fatigued, according to a new survey from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts.

Make no mistake: Malveaux plans to vote. She always does. “I just get to the point where I don’t want to hear the rhetoric,” she said.

The 54-year-old Democrat said she’s most bothered when she hears people on the news telling her that something she saw with her own eyes — like the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol — didn’t really happen.

“I feel like I’m being gaslit. That’s the way to put it,” she said.

Sometimes it feels like ‘a bombardment’

Caleb Pack, 23, a Republican from Ardmore, Oklahoma, who works in IT, tries to keep informed through the news feeds on his phone, which is stocked with a variety of sources, including CNN, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press.

Yet sometimes, Pack says, it seems like a bombardment.

“It’s good to know what’s going on, but both sides are pulling a little bit extreme,” he said. “It just feels like it’s a conversation piece everywhere, and it’s hard to escape it.”

Media fatigue isn’t a new phenomenon. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in late 2019 found roughly two in three Americans felt worn out by the amount of news there is, about the same as in a poll taken in early 2018. During the 2016 presidential campaign, about 6 in 10 people felt overloaded by campaign news.

But it can be particularly acute with news related to politics. The AP-NORC/USAFacts poll found that half of Americans feel a need to limit their consumption of information related to crime or overseas conflicts, while only about 4 in 10 are limiting news about the economy and jobs.

It’s easy to understand, with television outlets like CNN, Fox News Channel and MSNBC full of political talk and a wide array of political news online, sometimes complicated by disinformation.

“There’s a glut of information,” said Richard Coffin, director of research and advocacy for USAFacts, “and people are having a hard time figuring out what is true or not.”

Women are more likely to feel they need to limit media

In the AP-NORC poll, about 6 in 10 men said they follow news about elections and politics at least “very” closely, compared to about half of women. For all types of news, not just politics, women are more likely than men to report the need to limit their media consumption, the survey found.

White adults are also more likely than Black or Hispanic adults to say they need to limit media consumption on politics, the poll found.

Kaleb Aravzo, 19, a Democrat, gets a baseline of news by listening to National Public Radio in the morning at home in Logan, Utah. Too much politics, particularly when he’s on social media sites like TikTok and Instagram, can trigger anxiety and depression.

“If it pops up on my page when I’m on social media,” he said, “I’ll just scroll past it.”

___

Sanders reported from Washington. David Bauder writes about media for the AP. Follow him at http://x.com/dbauder.

The AP poll of 1,019 adults was conducted July 29-August 8, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

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