Statistics Canada says the country added 94,000 jobs in July as public health restrictions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic continued to be lifted, but economists warned there is still a “long slog” toward a full recovery ahead.
The federal agency said Friday that the job gains caused the unemployment rate to fall to its lowest level since March of this year, at 7.5 per cent for July compared with 7.8 per cent in June.
The gains were seen primarily in Ontario and in the service sector, with 35,000 jobs added in the accommodation and food industry.
The rise came largely in full-time work, which rose by 83,000 or half a percentage point and occurred in multiple sectors.
Many economists had expected the country to add at least 100,000 new jobs during July and thought the unemployment rate would sit around 7.4 per cent last month.
“While the headline tally may have come in a tad light of meaty expectations, it’s still a healthy advance, and there were some clear flashes of strength beneath the hood,” said Douglas Porter, BMO Capital Markets’ chief economist, in a note to investors.
He saw positive signs in the number of full-time positions added and the 1.3 per cent increase in total hours worked, though that figure was still 2.7 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.
“It will only take a few more reports like today’s to get employment all the way back to pre-pandemic highs,” Porter said.
He predicted the country will see one more employment bump before it settles into a “long slog” as job gains tied to reopening dissipate and the economy begins to more seriously deal with the Delta variant of COVID-19.
Canada is still 246,400 jobs, or 1.3 per cent, shy of pre-pandemic employment levels seen in February 2020.
The number of people considered long-term unemployed — those out of work for more than six months — in July was 244,000 higher than before the pandemic and accounted for 27.8 per cent of total unemployment. Of that number, more than two-thirds have been out of work for a year or longer, Statistics Canada said.
Like Porter, CIBC senior economist Royce Mendes believes job gains will be harder to earn in the coming months.
“Gains are likely to slow from here, with many employers reporting labour shortages due to generous government support, concerns about contracting COVID in high-contact work settings, and childcare duties,” he wrote in a note to investors.
However, he also said July’s increase continues the pattern begun with the 231,000 jobs added in June and can be considered a strong gain, making up for employment losses incurred during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says retail sales rose 0.4 per cent to $66.6 billion in August, helped by higher new car sales.
The agency says sales were up in four of nine subsectors as sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 3.5 per cent, boosted by a 4.3 per cent increase at new car dealers and a 2.1 per cent gain at used car dealers.
Core retail sales — which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers — fell 0.4 per cent in August.
Sales at food and beverage retailers dropped 1.5 per cent, while furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers fell 1.4 per cent.
In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.7 per cent in August.
Looking ahead, Statistics Canada says its advance estimate of retail sales for September points to a gain of 0.4 per cent for the month, though it cautioned the figure would be revised.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.
OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.
Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.
The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.
As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.
The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.
A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.
In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.
The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.
According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.
The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.
Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
