Economy grew at annualized rate of 1% in Q4, Statistics Canada says - CityNews Winnipeg | Canada News Media
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Economy grew at annualized rate of 1% in Q4, Statistics Canada says – CityNews Winnipeg

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The Canadian economy expanded at an annualized rate of one per cent in the fourth quarter as high interest rates weighed on growth, but not enough to push the economy into a recession.

The increase in real gross domestic product follows a decline in the third quarter of 0.5 per cent annualized.
Statistics Canada says growth in the fourth quarter was driven by a rise in exports, while housing and business investment both fell.

In December, real GDP was flat as goods-producing industries contracted and Quebec’s public sector workers’ strike weighed on growth.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter says the economy is “grinding forward” with help from strong U.S. spending trends, which have boosted Canadian exports.

“There’s no debate that growth is nevertheless anemic, especially when cast in per capita terms,” he said in a client note, adding that real GDP per capita is down more than two per cent from a year ago.

The federal agency says outside of 2020, economic growth in 2023 rose at its slowest pace since 2016.

High interest rates have weighed on Canadians’ finances as the Bank of Canada holds its key interest rate at five per cent, the highest it’s been since 2001.

Households continue to renew their mortgages at higher rates, which is causing a pullback in consumer spending and a slowdown in sales for businesses.

Thursday’s report says while consumer spending was up for the quarter, it continued to decline on a per capita basis as the country experiences strong population growth.

A preliminary estimate suggests real GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in January.

The Bank of Canada has signalled that it’s next move is most likely a rate cut as inflation eases and higher rates dampen economic growth.

Canada’s annual inflation rate ticked down to 2.9 per cent in January amid a broad-based slowdown in price growth.

Most economists expect the central bank to start lowering its key rate around the middle of the year, but a stronger-than-expected economy may reduce the urgency for the central bank to act soon.

“This changes little for the Bank of Canada, as conditions don’t appear to be worsening so there’s no urgency to cut rates,” Porter said. “With growth still well below potential, disinflationary pressure will continue, but it will require ongoing patience.”

The Bank of Canada is set to announce its next interest rate decision on Wednesday.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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