The Canadian economy grew by 0.3 per cent in May despite downward pressure from wildfire-hit oil and gas production but it looks to have slowed in June, Statistics Canada said Friday.
In its latest report on economic growth, the federal agency’s preliminary estimate suggests real gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of one per cent in the second quarter.
The May figure came in slightly lower than was expected by Statistics Canada as mining and oil and gas companies reduced their operations in Alberta at the outset of the record-breaking wildfire season.
The energy sector was down 2.1 per cent in May, the release shows.
“This was the sector’s first decline in five months and its largest since August 2020,” the agency said.
The modest GDP increase in May was driven in part by a rebound in the public administration sector as most federal public servants on strike returned to work by the end of April. However, 35,000 Canada Revenue Agency workers remained on strike for three days in May, which dampened the rebound.
The economy remained resilient in the second quarter, but growth started to look weaker by the end of the period, with wholesale sales posting one of their largest declines in history in June, said RBC economist Claire Fan in a note.
“The resilience in consumer demand we’ve seen to date is not to be overlooked, adding to sticky inflation pressures. But momentum in services spending also appears to be waning – gross sales at food services and drinking places have been trending at levels below this January for months,” she wrote.
That modest growth is unlikely to hold, as the federal agency’s preliminary estimate for June suggests the economy contracted by 0.2 per cent.
Statistics Canada says the estimated decrease in June is mainly owing to the wholesale trade and manufacturing sectors.
Both sectors saw growth in May as supply chain issues related to semiconductor chips eased, but the downward trend in June is expected to “more than offset the increases recorded in May,” the agency said.
The slowdown comes as the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate sits at five per cent, the highest it’s been since 2001. The interest rate spike is expected to slow the economy down, though it has generally performed better than expected this year.
The real estate sector, for example, is expected to continue to grow in June despite high interest rates.
In May, home resales in most of Canada’s largest markets led to an industry increase of 7.6 per cent.
A series of transitory shocks since April, such as the wildfires, has made the data more difficult to interpret, wrote TD economist Marc Ercolao in a note.
“Looking ahead, headline GDP figures may continue to be skewed by the government’s grocery rebate and the effects of the B.C. port strike in July,” he said.
But the pullback in June will likely help support a hold on the Bank of Canada’s key policy rate in September after announcing a hike this month, said Ercolao.
“Slowing growth appears to be in the cards for the Canadian economy, and we believe this will be enough for the (central bank) to remain on hold at its next meeting,” he said.
The Bank of Canada won’t hesitate to hike rates further if necessary, said Fan, but she added that “the worst is yet to come” for households dealing with rising debt service costs.
“We expect that will soften spending, push inflation lower and keep the (central bank) to the sideline over the second half of this year,” she said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 28, 2023.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
