OTTAWA —
Should Prime Minister Justin Trudeau call an election this summer, the issue that will have the most influence in the minds of voters will be the economy, according to a new survey by Nanos Research.
More than 28 per cent of those surveyed said that the economy would be most important policy issue that will sway their vote in a potential election, outranking the environment and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
The survey, commissioned by CTV News, indicated that the second-ranking issue on the voters’ minds was the environment, with 17 per cent of respondents putting it as their top concern.
As for other top-ranking issues: 16 per cent said the federal deficit will sway their vote and 13 per cent said health care would be their main motivating issue. The pandemic came in fifth in voters’ minds, with just 10 per cent of respondents indicating that the fight against COVID-19 still ranks atop their policy priorities.
Following behind these issues were reconciliation with Indigenous people, which seven per cent of respondents said was their top influencing file, and the desire for a new government, which was the top issue for two per cent of those surveyed.
“It looks like Canadians are starting to pivot away from the pandemic,” said Nanos Research’s Nik Nanos in an interview on CTV News Channel Wednesday. “And during the next election, they’re going to want to hear about the economy and jobs. They’re going to want to hear about the environment, about the deficit, about health care.”
Canadians who live in the Prairies felt the most strongly about the importance of the economy and political parties’ handling of finances, while those in British Columbia felt that the environment ranked supreme.
The influence of the pandemic was noted the most strongly in Ontario, while Atlantic Canadian respondents mentioned health care and reconciliation more often when the responses are broken down by region.
Over the course of the pandemic, Canadians experienced both a health and an economic crisis, with lockdowns and public health restrictions leading to business shutdowns and job losses.
While the economy largely appears to be rebounding as society continues to reopen with increasing vaccination rates, the country is in a deep deficit, brought on by the federal government’s deployment of mass-scale economic aid programs aimed at keeping Canadians and businesses afloat during the pandemic. These included the now-ended Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and the ongoing wage and rent subsidies, which are in place until Sept. 25.
Throughout the COVID-19 fight, the opposition parties have been critical of the government’s economic measures, with the Conservatives raising concerns about the ballooning deficit, while the New Democrats pushed for the aid programs to be extended or expanded further.
Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland continue to defend their multi-billion dollar economic stimulus approach, with cabinet ministers out making numerous spending announcements touting aspects of the budget since it passed when Parliament adjourned for the summer.
TRUDEAU GEARING UP FOR VOTE?
In overall national polling, Nanos’s latest polling data shows the Liberals at 38.1 per cent, the Conservatives at 23.6 per cent, and the NDP at 20.4 per cent support.
Nanos said the Liberals are experiencing a “vaccination halo,” as a result of Canadians feeling a sense of relief as more and more are experiencing a two-dose summer, which he connects to the fewer number of those surveyed who listed the pandemic as a top worry.
In Ottawa, the speculation of an August or September election call is intensifying and Trudeau’s ongoing post-second dose travels across the country are fuelling anticipation, as he continues to dodge questions about whether Canadians should expect to go to the polls soon. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also starting to ramp-up their travel for announcements and events.
“If the prime minister is out there talking like he’s campaigning, and travelling like he’s campaigning, and now he and his ministers are spending like they’re campaigning, [it’s a] pretty good bet the lawn signs can’t be far off,” said strategic communications consultant and principal at Earnscliffe, Greg Weston in an interview with CTV News.
Weston added that while politicians trying to sway voters with their own money is a practice “as old as democracy itself,” the federal government has a case to make about going to the polls if it’s a question of who should have the mandate to govern the country through the post-pandemic recovery.
Should the much-speculated campaign kick off, this survey indicates that voters’ minds may be more attuned to what’s ahead and the economic rebuilding that’ll be needed, as well as the looming climate emergency, rather than looking back on how the Liberals handled the pandemic or how parties propose to better prepare for the next one.
“Canadians want to hear about what’s going to happen in the future…. it provides an opportunity for the Conservatives and the New Democrats to start talking about other issues like the economy and jobs,” Nanos said.
METHODOLOGY:
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,051 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between June 30th and July 5th, 2021 as part of an omnibus survey.
Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online. The sample included both land-and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.
Individuals were randomly called using random digit dialling with a maximum of five call backs.
The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
This study was commissioned by CTV News and the research was conducted by Nanos Research.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
