OTTAWA —
Should Prime Minister Justin Trudeau call an election this summer, the issue that will have the most influence in the minds of voters will be the economy, according to a new survey by Nanos Research.
More than 28 per cent of those surveyed said that the economy would be most important policy issue that will sway their vote in a potential election, outranking the environment and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
The survey, commissioned by CTV News, indicated that the second-ranking issue on the voters’ minds was the environment, with 17 per cent of respondents putting it as their top concern.
As for other top-ranking issues: 16 per cent said the federal deficit will sway their vote and 13 per cent said health care would be their main motivating issue. The pandemic came in fifth in voters’ minds, with just 10 per cent of respondents indicating that the fight against COVID-19 still ranks atop their policy priorities.
Following behind these issues were reconciliation with Indigenous people, which seven per cent of respondents said was their top influencing file, and the desire for a new government, which was the top issue for two per cent of those surveyed.
“It looks like Canadians are starting to pivot away from the pandemic,” said Nanos Research’s Nik Nanos in an interview on CTV News Channel Wednesday. “And during the next election, they’re going to want to hear about the economy and jobs. They’re going to want to hear about the environment, about the deficit, about health care.”
Canadians who live in the Prairies felt the most strongly about the importance of the economy and political parties’ handling of finances, while those in British Columbia felt that the environment ranked supreme.
The influence of the pandemic was noted the most strongly in Ontario, while Atlantic Canadian respondents mentioned health care and reconciliation more often when the responses are broken down by region.
Over the course of the pandemic, Canadians experienced both a health and an economic crisis, with lockdowns and public health restrictions leading to business shutdowns and job losses.
While the economy largely appears to be rebounding as society continues to reopen with increasing vaccination rates, the country is in a deep deficit, brought on by the federal government’s deployment of mass-scale economic aid programs aimed at keeping Canadians and businesses afloat during the pandemic. These included the now-ended Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and the ongoing wage and rent subsidies, which are in place until Sept. 25.
Throughout the COVID-19 fight, the opposition parties have been critical of the government’s economic measures, with the Conservatives raising concerns about the ballooning deficit, while the New Democrats pushed for the aid programs to be extended or expanded further.
Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland continue to defend their multi-billion dollar economic stimulus approach, with cabinet ministers out making numerous spending announcements touting aspects of the budget since it passed when Parliament adjourned for the summer.
TRUDEAU GEARING UP FOR VOTE?
In overall national polling, Nanos’s latest polling data shows the Liberals at 38.1 per cent, the Conservatives at 23.6 per cent, and the NDP at 20.4 per cent support.
Nanos said the Liberals are experiencing a “vaccination halo,” as a result of Canadians feeling a sense of relief as more and more are experiencing a two-dose summer, which he connects to the fewer number of those surveyed who listed the pandemic as a top worry.
In Ottawa, the speculation of an August or September election call is intensifying and Trudeau’s ongoing post-second dose travels across the country are fuelling anticipation, as he continues to dodge questions about whether Canadians should expect to go to the polls soon. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also starting to ramp-up their travel for announcements and events.
“If the prime minister is out there talking like he’s campaigning, and travelling like he’s campaigning, and now he and his ministers are spending like they’re campaigning, [it’s a] pretty good bet the lawn signs can’t be far off,” said strategic communications consultant and principal at Earnscliffe, Greg Weston in an interview with CTV News.
Weston added that while politicians trying to sway voters with their own money is a practice “as old as democracy itself,” the federal government has a case to make about going to the polls if it’s a question of who should have the mandate to govern the country through the post-pandemic recovery.
Should the much-speculated campaign kick off, this survey indicates that voters’ minds may be more attuned to what’s ahead and the economic rebuilding that’ll be needed, as well as the looming climate emergency, rather than looking back on how the Liberals handled the pandemic or how parties propose to better prepare for the next one.
“Canadians want to hear about what’s going to happen in the future…. it provides an opportunity for the Conservatives and the New Democrats to start talking about other issues like the economy and jobs,” Nanos said.
METHODOLOGY:
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,051 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between June 30th and July 5th, 2021 as part of an omnibus survey.
Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online. The sample included both land-and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.
Individuals were randomly called using random digit dialling with a maximum of five call backs.
The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
This study was commissioned by CTV News and the research was conducted by Nanos Research.
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
