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Economy Spiraling, Vexed Central Banks, Rich Get Richer: Eco Day – Bloomberg

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Welcome to Monday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the week.

  • A top economic adviser to President-elect Joe Biden warned the U.S. economy is “spiraling downward” and called for a swift response
  • Resurgent coronavirus outbreaks will vex central bankers on five continents this week as they weigh the threat of more damage to growth against a hope that mass vaccinations will reopen economies
  • Some Americans have become, by some measures, richer during the pandemic than ever before
  • Joe Biden ascends to the presidency on Wednesday with an inaugural speech outlining how he’ll tackle the health and economic crises he inherits while attempting to knit the country back together after riots. Here’s why Biden’s stimulus hopes might actually depend on ‘reconciliation.’ Meantime, U.S economist Nouriel Roubini fears Biden’s presidency will be marked by unrest and cyber attacks
  • Goldman Sachs economists raised their growth forecasts for the U.S. this year and beyond after Biden unveiled a sweeping revival plan
  • Hong Kong’s unemployment rate for the three months through December is likely to exceed the highest level in 16 years
  • Robert Hormats, ex-vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International and adviser to five U.S. administrations, predicted tariffs on China will remain under Biden during the “What Goes Up” podcast
  • A surge in coronavirus cases in Japan has dealt a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s once strong public support, raising the risk he gets replaced ahead of an election due by October
  • Germany’s dominant party voted for continuity by electing Armin Laschet as leader, opting for the candidate who most resembles outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel in policy and style
  • The EU has set out plans to strengthen the international role of the euro, as its seeks to erode the dominance on the dollar and lessen risks like U.S. sanctions. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is calling for a moratorium on tariffs between the EU and the U.S. to allow time for the “poisonous” issue to be resolved
  • Italy expects debt to rise more than expected this year, as it gets ready to boost fiscal stimulus to support a battered economy
  • The Dawei Special Economic Zone, Myanmar’s largest industrial project backed by Thailand, is headed for further delay and possible litigation following sudden termination of development contracts
  • The world’s biggest shipping company demanded a more effective military response to surging pirate attacks off West Africa’s coast
  • More than three months a hundred Thai resorts reopened to extended-stay travelers in an attempt to revive a battered economy, foreign arrivals have failed to meet even rock-bottom expectations

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    Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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    OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

    She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

    The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

    The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

    On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

    Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

    Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

    The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

    The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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    OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

    The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

    The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

    Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

    Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

    In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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    TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

    “It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

    In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

    The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

    While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

    Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

    But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

    Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

    “I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

    “I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

    A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

    It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

    More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

    “That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

    In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

    “Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

    The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

    The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

    The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

    — With files from The Associated Press

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

    Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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