Economy Will Be 'Supercharged' After Pandemic But There’s One Big Risk, Moody's Says (It’s Not Inflation) - Forbes | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Economy

Economy Will Be 'Supercharged' After Pandemic But There’s One Big Risk, Moody's Says (It’s Not Inflation) – Forbes

Published

 on


Topline

As early indicators point to a strong recovery that will create a “supercharged” economy once the coronavirus crisis slows down, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says that the biggest risk to that recovery isn’t the runaway inflation that has many experts sounding alarm bells but a dangerous surge in asset values.

Key Facts

Rising vaccination rates and falling hospitalizations, plus the fact that herd immunity looks likely by the summer months, are just a few of the “increasingly compelling reasons” to be optimistic about recovery in the months ahead, Zandi wrote in a Monday research note.

In addition, federal stimulus spending is beginning to make its way to households that need assistance, households with excess personal savings and lots of pent-up demand from the pandemic are ready to spend, and business-to-business spending is on the rise too.

Some economists, lawmakers, and market experts are worried that the unprecedented federal stimulus and the surge in consumer spending that follows it will push prices to historic levels, devalue the dollar and destabilize the broader U.S. economy.

Zandi says these concerns about rampant, uncontrollable inflation are “much too premature,” especially since it will be years before the U.S. reaches pre-pandemic employment levels.

Rather, the bigger and more pressing threat to the recovery is ballooning asset prices, he says, pointing to recent surges in the equities market, housing market, bond market, commodities market, and even the cryptocurrency market. 

With valuations sky high, these markets could be vulnerable to major corrections and crashes that have the potential to reverberate through the entire economy.  

Surprising Fact

The S&P 500 index has soared almost 300% over the past ten years—much in the way it did in the ten years preceding the dot-com crash two decades ago. 

Big Number

$2.4 trillion. That’s how much “forced” savings—money that households would have otherwise spent but couldn’t because of pandemic restrictions—analysts from Goldman Sachs estimate will be accumulated by the time the economy returns to normal in the middle of the year. “Whether households spend a modest or large share of these pent-up savings as the economy fully reopens could be the difference between a healthy recovery and overheating,” the analysts wrote in a Monday research note.

Key Background

Zandi isn’t the only expert taking this view. In a January speech at Princeton University, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said he expects to see “a strong wave of exuberant spending” once the pandemic subsides that could push prices higher in the short term, but that he is not concerned about overheating and runaway inflation in the long term. Powell noted that there are still too many Americans seeking employment for wages to rise to unhealthy levels any time soon, and emphasized that with interest rates still at rock-bottom, the Fed has an arsenal of tools at its disposal to address rising inflation if it becomes problematic. 

Further Reading

Is The Stock Market About To Crash? (Forbes)

Here’s Where $1,400 Stimulus Checks, $15 Minimum Wage And The Rest Of Biden’s $1.9 Trillion Rescue Plan Stand Today (Forbes)

Here’s What Biden’s $2 Trillion Climate-Focused Infrastructure Plan Means For Stocks And The Economy (Forbes)

Here’s What Could Spark The Next 10% Market Correction, Bank Of America Warns (Forbes)

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

Published

 on

 

The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

Published

 on

 

As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version