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Edmonton economy to improve only slightly in 2020

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After a year marked by stagnant growth and weak job numbers, Edmonton will see “sluggish” growth in 2020, says the city’s chief economist.

“We’re coming off a very difficult year in 2019 and we’ve seen significant weakness in several key areas,” John Rose said in an interview Thursday with CBC Radio’s Edmonton AM.

“I think people really have to manage their expectations. Growth rates are going to be very, very modest.”

Edmonton’s economy is comparatively diverse, said Rose. Less reliant on the energy sector than other Alberta cities, the provincial capital has been surprisingly resilient. However, the prolonged slowdown is starting to bear down on Edmonton businesses, he said.

‘Rather low’

Growth in Edmonton’s real gross domestic product (GDP) hovered around 0.5 per cent in 2019, the lowest it’s been since 2015, soon after oil prices started to plunge.

There will be some growth in the coming year, Rose said. But it will be slight and lopsided, favouring sectors less intertwined with the energy sector.

He expects Edmonton’s GDP will increase by about 1.4 per cent in 2020 and 2.5 per cent in 2021.

 

Rose says Albertans shouldn’t expect a boom but a modest economic recovery. (CBC)

 

The local economy is in recovery mode and the labour market continues to tighten, shaking consumer confidence and muting investment.

In November, as Alberta lost 18,000 jobs, the unemployment rate in Edmonton climbed to 7.7 per cent. Rose estimates 11,000 positions were lost in both full-time and part-time work in Edmonton during the year.

“What we’ll see is a very modest acceleration in growth,” he said. “People will feel it but it will be very modest. We’re talking about 1.3 or 1.5 per cent growth in 2020.

“Historically, that’s rather low, but nonetheless it will be much better than 2019 where we were stuck at 0.5 during a very, very weak year.”

Oil prices are likely to remain volatile and activity in the energy sector will be muted, undercutting growth in manufacturing, construction, logistics and professional services.

“We’re not going to see a really robust consumer side of the economy. We’re not going to see a very robust residential construction sector,” Rose said.

“It’s going to be sluggish, unfortunately.”

We’ll do reasonably well in Edmonton but there will be no boom.– John Rose

The latest report from ATB Financial, released in December, provides similarly stunted projections for the Alberta economy.

According to ATB, provincial GDP growth in 2019 was 0.4 per cent — well below the 20-year average of 2.8 per cent.

ATB anticipates a slightly better 2020, with growth of 0.9 per cent leading to a better 2021, with GDP forecast to grow by 2.1 per cent.

The energy sector is stuck in “slow mode,” Rose said.

“I’ve been at this now 10 years and I’ve been waiting for the Trans Mountain Pipeline [expansion] and Line 3 and the Keystone XL to hit and none of that has happened,” he said.

“When I see it, I’ll believe it. Right now, I’m not making any assumption about a sustained expansion on the energy side of the Alberta economy.

“We’ll do reasonably well in Edmonton but there will be no boom.”

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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