Abdel Fattah el-Sisi returned as president of Egypt in the election held at the end of 2023, winning a third term with 89.6 percent of the votes in favour of the incumbent.
That el-Sisi was going to secure a victory in the December poll was never really in doubt, according to analysts and Egypt watchers.
Second-place candidate Hazem Omar, of the People’s Republican Party, only managed 4.05 percent of the vote, with the third-place candidate coming in with a similar figure. El-Sisi’s most serious challenger, former Member of Parliament Ahmed al-Tantawy, as well as chair of the Dostour Party, Gameela Ismail, both withdrew after failing to secure the endorsements needed to run.
Ismail withdrew due to what her supporters claimed was a divided opposition, and al-Tantawy because of what he said was the intimidation of his supporters. Egypt’s National Election Authority said al-Tantawy’s accusations were baseless.
“People chose President el-Sisi because of his experience in overcoming security challenges,” political analyst Gamal Abdel-Gawwad subsequently wrote in state-owned newspaper Al Ahram Weekly.
“After all, he was a former minister of defence and head of military intelligence.”
Voter turnout
While victory may have been expected, addressing low voter turnout was a priority for el-Sisi.
The Suez Canal, one of Egypt’s biggest income generators, may struggle as violence in the Red Sea deters shipping [File: Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters]
In 2014, only 47.5 percent of the population turned out to vote, four years later, only 41.5 percent made it to the polling station, potentially undermining the impact of el-Sisi’s victories.
This year’s final figure of 66 percent, remarkable given the absence of alternatives, did not come about by accident or because people were anxious to make their voices heard about the crushing economic crisis.
While el-Sisi has never aligned himself with a political party, in recent years the Mustaqbal Watan Party has increasingly positioned itself as his closest political ally, using its dramatic 2020 landslide win to demonstrate unflagging support for the president.
Likewise, other pro-regime parties, such as Homeland Defenders Party and the Republican People’s Party appear to have been embraced, being encouraged to wave the flag and get the vote out in the recent poll.
“The election was in some ways a test for whether the now-revamped political machine the regime has been building for years will be able to deliver what the Sisi regime couldn’t deliver in prior electoral contests on its own,” Hesham Sallam of Stanford University said in emailed comments about the increased turnout.
“Since the 2020 [legislative] election, Mustaqbal Watan has been stuck in this ‘political friend-zone’ with Sisi, where he is clearly relying on it as his primary political arm but will still not recognise it as his official ruling party.
“The hope is that this election was an opportunity for the party to prove that it is worthy of this recognition and that it should no longer be just an ‘acting ruling party’,” Sallam wrote, adding that Mustaqbal Watan would always have to comply with el-Sisi’s ambitions and style of rule.
Egypt has been affected by the conflict in Gaza in more ways than one. Here, trucks laden with humanitarian aid wait on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing with Gaza on December 11, 2023 [Giuseppe Cacace/AFP]
“The regime-allied media went beyond the call of duty in propping up Hazem Omar’s image as a credible challenger and an alternative political voice, which has made observers speculate whether he is being groomed to play a bigger role in the regime’s political theatrics in the coming years,” he said.
Al Jazeera reached out to Hazem Omar on the points raised by Sallam but has received no response by time of publication.
The economy
Electoral achievements notwithstanding, Egypt’s economy remains on life support. While the regime continues to plough on with mega projects, such as constructing a new capital, public debt continues to mount.
Across the country, price rises on subsidised goods have pushed the cost of living beyond the reach of many. The Egyptian pound’s precipitous fall against the dollar has led to increased competition for the hard currency needed to pay for foreign goods and a subsequent shortfall in imports.
“Egypt is currently enduring its most severe economic crisis since the 2011 revolution, characterised by a weak currency, soaring inflation and capital flight, all signs of a deepening debt crisis,” Saif Islam, an associate in Strategic Intelligence with risk consultancy firm S-RM, said in emailed comments.
“These macroeconomic challenges have considerable repercussions for ordinary Egyptians, including increased poverty and unemployment. These socio-economic challenges will likely exacerbate in the coming year, especially in light of the anticipated further devaluation of the Egyptian pound,” he wrote.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on October 25, 2023 [Christophe Ena/Pool/AFP]
New loans, such as the mooted injection of a further $5bn from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into the central bank, as well as the potential expansion of the $3bn loan from the International Monetary Fund, were more a reflection of Egypt’s strategic significance – reaffirmed by the outbreak of war in Gaza – rather than an undertaking on el-Sisi’s part to commit to any fresh policy direction, Islam suggested.
“A significant portion of any new loans will probably be allocated towards servicing Egypt’s substantial debts. The country is obligated to pay $29.2bn in external debt service in 2024, which underscores the critical role of new loans in meeting debt obligations,” he said.
“There was much speculation that Cairo might default on some of their international debt before too long,” Dr HA Hellyer, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie said, referring to the financial strains the country is experiencing, “but few expect that will result in much political change domestically.
“It’s also clear that, for much of the international community, Egypt is deeply important due to its population size and its geopolitical position, especially due to the situation in Gaza and Sudan. No one wants Egypt to fail, on the contrary.”
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.
The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.
Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.
Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.
Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.
In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
