Today, President Biden will address a global Summit for Democracy that his administration is hosting this week. Biden is expected to call for up to $690 million in new funding for his initiative for democratic renewal, which aims to support democracy and fight corruption worldwide. The guest list has raised some questions: The United States did not invite Turkey or Hungary, a reflection of how it views both nations’ democratic decline in recent years. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to participate despite intense controversy over his effort to assert greater control over Israel’s judiciary.
Politics
Election unlikely in 2023 despite recent political posturing, pundits say


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Even though federal political leaders have been using some heated, election-style language to snipe at each other in recent weeks, pundits say it’s unlikely Canadians will go to the polls in 2023.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was active during the six-week parliamentary break, making stops in Saskatoon, Windsor, Ont. and Trois-Rivieres, Que. to talk up his government’s accomplishments. He also occasionally took shots at Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his recent assertion that “everything seems broken” in Canada.
“Crossing your arms and saying ‘Canada is broken’ is not the way to build a better future for Canadians,” Trudeau said.
Poilievre, meanwhile, toured Quebec in an attempt to boost his poll numbers in that province. He also met with Indigenous leaders in Vancouver to discuss a proposed opt-in policy for First Nations to share the revenue generated by resource development on their lands.
The Conservative leader also hit back at Trudeau on Friday during an address to his caucus prior to the House of Commons’ return. He blamed the prime minister for inflation, the recent travel chaos and deficit spending while appearing to goad Trudeau into an election battle.
“If you’re not responsible for any of these things, if you can’t do anything about it, then why don’t you get out of the way and let someone lead who can?” Poilievre said as his MPs cheered and applauded.
Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre addresses his Conservative caucus and highlights crime rates during Justin Trudeau’s time as prime minister.
Speaking to his own caucus earlier this month, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh touted his party’s confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals, saying that the deal was “delivering for Canadians.”
But Singh also indicated that he had his eyes set higher.
“We’re going to fight for every bit of help and hope we can win for Canadians and then I’m going to run for prime minister of Canada,” he said.
But Tim Powers of Summa Strategies said he doesn’t think any of the leaders are itching for an election right now, despite their recent posturing.
“The conditions don’t exist for an election this year,” he told CBC. “I don’t think anybody’s really going to have a breakaway moment.”
Shachi Kurl, president at the Angus Reid Institute, and Éric Grenier, writer and publisher of TheWrit.ca, joined Power & Politics Friday to discuss the latest polling data.
Powers said the Liberals are unlikely to seek a new mandate with the threat of an economic slowdown this year hanging over the government’s head.
“We will only have an election this year if Justin Trudeau sees the winning conditions exist for him,” Powers said. “I don’t think the Liberals are yet ready to manufacture an election.”
Sharan Kaur of SK Consulting agreed that an election is unlikely this year. She suggested the Conservatives will still use the economy to needle the Liberals and position themselves as a government-in-waiting.
“I would say the biggest looming issue of 2023 is going to be cost of living, a potential recession, and that will probably be the main pivot point for the Conservatives,” she said, adding that she thinks the Conservative Party is the only one that wants an election this year.
But Powers said Poilievre might be happy to wait and give himself more time to pitch himself to Canadians.
“I think Poilievre is content to have the time to let the Liberals age and build a brand and a platform that can be useful to him,” he said.
If the Liberal-NDP deal holds for its intended duration, the next election won’t happen until 2025.
But the agreement may face a tougher test in 2023 than it did in 2022 because it includes more benchmarks for progress — including a commitment to table pharmacare legislation. Singh also threatened to pull out of the deal if the Liberals don’t address the health-care crisis.
“The confidence-and-supply agreement gets a little bit more muscular [this year],” said Brad Lavigne of Consul Public Affairs.
NDP MP Daniel Blaikie told CBC News this month that the 2023 federal budget will be a key factor in deciding whether the Liberals are holding up their end of the deal.
But even if the deal falls apart this year, Lavigne said, it wouldn’t necessarily trigger an election.
“If you look back at recent history, [former prime minister Stephen] Harper had minority Parliaments in which he had no such supply agreement with any one opposition party, yet he maintained the confidence of the House for many years,” he said. “That is an option that is open to Mr. Trudeau as well.”
Even if an election doesn’t happen this year, Kaur said she doesn’t expect the political posturing to stop.
“We’re going to see a lot of pandering in the next year, especially around economic challenges, cost of living for people — just like the bread-and-butter issues,” she said.





Politics
Post Politics Now: Biden to press for democratic renewal in speech to global summit – The Washington Post
In New York, a grand jury examining whether former president Donald Trump should be charged with violations of state law for hush-money payments made to an adult-film actress in 2016 is not expected to meet again on the investigation this week.
Politics
‘The empire strikes back’: Brits laud diversity in UK politics – Al Jazeera English


When Humza Yousaf became Scotland’s new leader this week, the world of British politics entered a new era of diversity.
With Pakistani-origin Yousaf in charge at Holyrood and Rishi Sunak, whose ancestors hail from India, leading at Westminster, it could be said that the United Kingdom is blazing a new trail in post-colonial history.
“The empire strikes back,” tweeted Jelina Berlow-Rahman, a human rights lawyer in Glasgow, after Yousaf’s victory.
Rahman, the daughter of Bangladeshi immigrants, sees the moment as one of triumph which fuelled pride in her own parents, who worked hard to give their children a better start in life.
“It’s harder for people from an ethnically diverse country to prove themselves and integrate, especially when they’re from a visible minority,” she told Al Jazeera.
Raised in London, human rights lawyer Berlow-Rahman moved to Scotland to study.
But unlike Yousaf, who backs Scottish independence, she doesn’t want the UK to break up, so would be unlikely to support his Scottish National Party.
She also isn’t a fan of Sunak’s right-wing Conservative government, which is pushing through controversial legislation aimed at cracking down on asylum seekers arriving across the English Channel.
She wonders if Sunak and Home Secretary Suella Braverman, whose Indian-origin parents came from Kenya and Mauritius, feel that, as minorities, they have to prove themselves to their party.
“It’s their way of doing it,” she said. “Sometimes the language and manner could be toned down.”
From across the political divide, Foysol Choudhury, the Bangladesh-born Labour member of the Scottish Parliament, said that Yousaf’s rise to power is a proud moment for the South Asian community.
“I know how difficult it is to be a minority and to go into politics,” he said. “It’s something to be celebrated. I’m really proud of him.”
To make a difference, Yousaf should stand up for his own ideas, he said.
But even though those ideas will inevitably differ from his own, he will always be up for a chai with his old friend.
Often, they are joined by Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader born to Pakistani Muslims.
“A lot of the time, after the debates, we’ll walk out together and talk about other things,” he said.
“It shows we’re all human.”
For Qasim Hanif, Glasgow-based convener of Scots Asians for Independence, the prospect of a Scots-Pakistani and a British Indian negotiating the partition of the UK is too compelling to ignore.
“In 1947, the British Empire would not have foreseen this,” he said. “Some of those colonialists would be turning in their graves.”
Yousaf says he wants to convince a “sustained majority” before firing the starting gun on “indyref2” – the second referendum being proposed by the Scottish government on secession.
The last vote, in 2014, saw most Scots vote to remain.
The 2016 European Union membership referendum, however, swayed opinion.
While the majority in England voted to quit the bloc, most Scots had wanted to remain in the EU – a schism which saw the Scottish independence movement regain momentum.
Hanif believes Yousaf was right to ditch his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon’s plans to turn the next UK general election into a de facto referendum.
“He knows how to play politics. If he calls a de facto referendum, he will already be on the back foot,” he said. “The UK establishment will tie you up in legal battles for years and years.”
But he hopes Yousaf will go straight into battle, lodging his legal challenge to the UK government’s Section 35 veto on Scotland’s controversial gender reforms, which will make it easier for people to change their recognised gender.
“They need to respect the will of the Scottish Parliament,” he said.
As an opening gambit, it’s a high-risk move.
Some, not least within Yousaf’s own party, question the wisdom of doubling down on a dossier that bedevilled Sturgeon’s last weeks in office.
Yousaf has been derided as a continuity leader of a party that has grown complacent after 16 years in power.
But his trenchant defence of the party’s progressive values has reaffirmed the SNP’s manifesto, bringing the growing chasm between Scotland and England into sharper focus.
As a French citizen who arrived in Scotland post-Brexit, Assa Samaké-Roman is acutely aware of the diverging paths of the two nations on immigration.
“What the Tories are doing in government is dog whistles to the far right,” said the journalist. “In Scotland, they’re not having that.
“This is the point of Scottish independence. The SNP is campaigning to escape the cruel social and immigration policies that Scotland didn’t even vote for,” she said.
In her view, Sunak’s Tories at Westminster represent a “toxic brand of Britishness”.
By contrast, Scotland espouses civic nationalism.
“That means even if I’m only here a few years, I’m as legitimate a Scot as anyone else,” said Samaké-Roman.
Scotland’s first Muslim leader
As the first Muslim to lead a Western democratic nation, Yousaf’s victory has resonated beyond the UK.
“As a French citizen, I’m thinking: ‘wow, this is where Scotland is’,” she said. “I can’t even imagine having a Muslim president in France because there’s so much Islamophobia.”
But Yousaf will not be in for an easy ride.
Like the rest of the UK, Scotland has emerged bruised from a double whammy of COVID and Brexit.
He will be entering office in fire-fighting mode, tackling the continuing fallout over a ferries procurement fiasco – now five years late and 240 million pounds ($300m) over budget – record hospital waiting lists and cost-of-living pressures.
He also inherits a party in crisis.
During the leadership contest, it was revealed the SNP’s top brass had misled the press over a 30,000 drop in membership figures, a scandal that led to the resignation of chief executive Peter Murrell, Sturgeon’s husband.
And police are currently investigating the loss of 600,000 pounds ($740,000) in funds from party coffers.
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As hard as it is to conceive of him as such, as the longest-serving head of government in the G7 Justin Trudeau is now one of the world’s elder statesmen. He has achieved this exalted status despite innumerable scandals rocking his government, on issues ranging from corruption to “blackface” to bullying to sexual misconduct, many of which would have felled a lesser politician.
But his lucky streak may finally be ending. For the past month, Ottawa has been riveted by a series of explosive allegations about Chinese interference in Canadian politics, from illegal campaign donations to disinformation campaigns, allegations leaked to the media by members of Canada’s usually docile intelligence service reportedly angry with the government ignoring their reports.
Since then, the allegations have expanded to include accusations of improper relationships between Liberal politicians and the Chinese government. Only last week, Han Dong, a Liberal MP, resigned his party’s whip to sit as an independent to contest allegations that he advised a Chinese diplomat to delay the release of the “Two Michaels”, the Canadians arrested by China in retaliation for the arrest of Meng Wanzhou of Huawei, for political reasons. Mr Dong denies the allegations, and has stated that he is planning to “begin legal action to its fullest extent” against their publisher.
But what is most damaging for Mr Trudeau and his Liberal government is not so much the acts of foreign interference themselves, bad enough though they are, as the accusation that he wilfully turned a blind eye to what was happening. And little wonder: a Chinese consul was allegedly caught on tape as saying that “The Liberal Party of Canada is becoming the only party that the PRC can support”, as opposed to the opposition Conservatives, who have taken a much more hawkish line on China.
Mr Trudeau’s reaction so far has been to refuse to hold an inquiry into Chinese interference and to accuse his opponents of trying to discredit Canada’s democracy, not to mention anti-Chinese racism. Liberal MPs have filibustered parliamentary committees to stop further investigation and in an attempt to prevent Katie Telford, Mr Trudeau’s powerful chief of staff, from being summoned to testify to Parliament about what her boss knew about the allegations of Chinese interference, and when.
His appointment of David Johnston, a well-respected former governor general, as “special rapporteur” on foreign interference in Canada did little to calm the waters. A card-carrying member of Canada’s cosy establishment, Mr Johnston is a family friend of the Trudeaus, not to mention a former neighbour and a member of the Trudeau Foundation.
Mr Trudeau’s public praise of China’s “basic dictatorship” and his familial antecedents aside (his prime ministerial father was an early Western enthusiast for Mao’s China), his government’s record on China since he became prime minister does not inspire confidence.
He had to fire John McCallum, his own appointee as ambassador to China and former Cabinet colleague, after the latter publicly contradicted his own government’s position and sided with China on the Meng extradition case.
But now, there are signs that all of this is too much, even for Mr Trudeau’s allies. Last Thursday, the House of Commons passed a motion calling for a full public inquiry into Chinese political interference in Canada, with every party except the Liberals voting in favour.
Though the motion is not binding, what is notable is that the New Democratic Party, who are in a confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals, voted for it, enabling it to pass. The NDP has said it will not bring down the government over this issue; but the Liberals may well think that a snap election is their only way out of the mess of their own making.
Few seriously think that Mr Trudeau is a Chinese agent, an accusation in the more feverish corners of the Internet. But the best that can be said of his conduct over China is that he has been one of the West’s useful idiots.