Elon Musk rang the alarm on house prices and commercial real estate this week. Here's why he's worried about a property disaster. - Yahoo Finance | Canada News Media
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Elon Musk rang the alarm on house prices and commercial real estate this week. Here's why he's worried about a property disaster. – Yahoo Finance

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Elon Musk says commercial real estate is “melting down fast.”Patrick Fallon/Reuters

  • Elon Musk warned this week that commercial real estate is in meltdown and house prices will slump.

  • The Tesla chief blamed the Fed’s interest-rate rises for putting pressure on property values.

  • Musk has explained that higher rates mean bigger mortgage costs, making homes less affordable.

Elon Musk sounded the alarm on US house prices and commercial-property values this week. The billionaire’s warning reflects his fear that the Federal Reserve is strangling the economy and threatening to cause a needless recession.

“Commercial real estate is melting down fast,” the Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter CEO tweeted on Monday. “Home values next.”

Interest rates and real estate

The root of Musk’s concerns is the Fed. In response to historic inflation, the US central bank has raised interest rates from virtually zero to upwards of 5% since last Spring.

Higher interest rates encourage saving over spending and make borrowing more costly, meaning they’re often bad news for asset prices and economic growth. They tend to pull down real estate prices because they raise mortgage payments and financing costs, leaving less money to buy homes with, or invest in offices and restaurants.

Steeper rates also erode the relative appeal of real estate to investors because they boost the yields from bonds and savings accounts.

Moreover, after mass withdrawals of customer deposits caused major problems at several banks this year, smaller lenders are pulling back in fear of further bank runs, raising the prospect of a credit crunch. They may also be more wary of lending given the prospect of a recession, pressure on their asset portfolios, and the increased risk of loan defaults when rates are higher.

The shift to remote working since the pandemic also poses a threat to commercial real estate values. Fewer commuters depresses occupancy levels in office buildings, and also affects traffic for commercial sites such as shopping malls and entertainment venues, making them less profitable bets for investors.

A painful mix of downward pressure on asset prices, higher borrowing costs, and tighter lending by regional banks is especially bad news for the commercial real estate industry, which is heavily reliant on debt financing from smaller lenders.

Musk’s worries

The Tesla chief has been making dire predictions about real estate for several months now.

“We really haven’t seen the commercial real estate shoe drop,” Musk said on Fox News’ “Tucker Carlson Tonight” in April. “That’s more like an anvil, not a shoe.”

The billionaire argued the damage to real estate portfolios has been minor, but would become a serious problem in the coming months as customers cancel their leases, decline to renew them – or go bankrupt.

Moreover, he said that house prices were likely to decline as some Americans couldn’t afford to pay as much for homes due to higher mortgage costs.

Musk has also weighed in on the vast amount of real estate debt expiring over the next five years, and homeowners facing a sharp rise in monthly payments once their fixed-rate mortgages end.

“This is by far the most serious looming issue,” he tweeted in March. “Mortgages too.”

The Tesla CEO zeroed in on the housing market’s challenges, and what they could mean for banks, earlier this month.

“The massive jump in monthly payments for a 30-year mortgage, due to high interest rates, obviously greatly reduces home affordability,” Musk tweeted. “Mortgage portfolios are at risk if housing prices drop significantly.”

It’s worth emphasizing that Musk stands to gain if real estate prices tank and the Fed cuts rates in response.

He’s complained that higher rates effectively raise the price of Tesla vehicles, as they translate into larger monthly car-loan payments for consumers. As a result, Tesla has to cut its prices just to maintain demand, he said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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