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Elon Musk Warns Homeowners About the Value of Their Homes

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For several weeks Elon Musk has been joining the voices of Cassandra, who foresee a real estate bubble bursting.

He regularly alerts that the situation in the sector is deteriorating.

For now, it’s commercial real estate that’s holding the attention of doomsayers. And the reason is simple: Commercial real estate relies on the health of banks and their ability to finance projects.

Since March, not all has been well in the financial system, and more particularly with regard to the U.S. regional banks, which finance the major real estate projects.

Since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10, a crisis of confidence in banks has rocked investors. The question at the heart of this crisis is whether the California bank’s troubles resulted from a brewing financial crisis, the effects of which might continue to be felt.

This concern is due not to unfounded panic by investors, which has happened. It is fear rooted in the fact that Silicon Valley Bank  (SIVB) – Get Free Report was the go-to institution for startups and many small businesses.

The bank did not take excessive risks — until the Federal Reserve began to increase its benchmark interest rate and the bank’s bet on rates via its acquisitions of treasury bonds and municipal bonds turned sour. SVB then found itself with huge unrealized losses.

Is Real Estate in Big Trouble?

Many experts and investors are convinced that other regional banks have made similar bets and also are sitting on unrealized losses. Many regional banks, said Ryan Nash, managing director of financials-group research at Goldman Sachs, have “exposure to high-risk commercial real estate areas, such as offices.”

Because property values have declined as office vacancies have increased in many cities across the U.S., many banks are expected to encounter challenges with their commercial real estate portfolios.

“A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more,” Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway  (BRK.A) – Get Free Report  (BRK.B) – Get Free Report, recently warned. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centers, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”

David Sacks, a tech-investor friend of Musk, pointed out on May 29, based on an article by Slate, that Los Angeles office towers “are selling for less than the amount of debt on them. This is true for [San Francisco,] too, and other big cities.”

The article reminds readers that commercial real estate actors owe $1.5 trillion to banks, pension funds, and insurers. This enormous debt, which must be paid before the end of 2025, was secured by a national portfolio of office, retail, industrial, and multifamily properties that may not be valued at what they were five or 10 years ago when those loans were issued.

Los Angeles thus symbolizes this new reality between the weight of the debt and the value of the properties.

For Musk this confirms his predictions and enables him to warn about residential real estate, which he says will follow the same trajectory as commercial real estate. This warning will not please homeowners.

Home Values Follow Commercial RE Lower: Musk

“Commercial real estate is melting down fast,” the billionaire said, following Sacks’s message. “Home values next.”

The tech mogul’s doom prediction is consistent with remarks he’d made in mid-May. At the time he agreed with an analysis indicating that the crisis in residential real estate was boiling.

“Existing people in houses can’t afford to sell— existing being renting can’t afford to buy,” Chen Fang, chief operating officer of BitGo, a digital asset trust and security company, said on May 13. “We are stuck in this limbo until the job market crashes and existing people with houses are forced to default on their mortgages, sending the real estate market into the next death spiral.”

“Tragically accurate,” the billionaire, who has become the face of today’s American capitalism, concluded.

Basically, one must be prepared for a slump in residential real estate as well.

One of the negative effects of the banking crisis of confidence is that it has pushed banks to turn off the credit tap. Obtain a mortgage is becoming more and more difficult because the banks, which want to preserve their liquidity, have added stricter criteria to their credit decisions.

Between this and interest rates that have been rising for more than a year due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, credit has become expensive. Households thus find themselves with monthly payments that have increased sharply.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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