Elon Musk’s blowout Tesla delivery haul shows his ‘golden EV success story’ is just beginning to shine, top tech analyst Dan Ives says | Canada News Media
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Elon Musk’s blowout Tesla delivery haul shows his ‘golden EV success story’ is just beginning to shine, top tech analyst Dan Ives says

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It’s been a wild ride for Tesla investors over the past few years. After shares of Elon Musk’s EV giant soared to an all-time high of over $407 in late 2021, the company experienced its worst year in history in 2022. With stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, and recession predictions spooking tech investors, Tesla stock dropped 65% last year. But despite a shaky economic backdrop, 2023 has been a year of recovery.

Tesla stock has soared 158% year to date to nearly $280 per share. And top tech analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities believes that there’s more room to run for the EV leader after its latest bullish delivery numbers.

Tesla revealed that it managed record second quarter deliveries of 466,000 over the weekend, ahead of Wall Street’s 447,000 consensus estimate. Production in the quarter also rose to 479,700, which Ives said was evidence of ”improved” capacity and “a healthier macro” in a Sunday research note. The numbers are “proof to combat the narrative of a murky backdrop” and should “put the bears back into hibernation mode,” he added.

The famously bullish Ives maintained his buy-equivalent “outperform” rating and $300 price target for Tesla after the data release. Tesla stock rose as much as 8.4% on Monday in the first day of trading after the release of the firm’s second quarter delivery data.

“This delivery number was a massive step in the right direction and is a major positive for the bulls,” Ives wrote. “Tesla continues to play chess while other EV players are playing checkers.”

While some bears have questioned Tesla’s decision to lean on aggressive price cuts throughout 2023, arguing they could lead to margin issues, Ives said the latest delivery numbers are evidence that the cuts have already “paid major dividends” and are stoking demand.

The analyst believes Wall Street will also eventually begin to value Tesla as a “sum-of-parts story,” referencing the popular sum-of-parts valuation technique used by analysts, which should boost consensus forecasts for the firm.

In a sum-of-parts valuation, analysts value the different divisions or subsidiaries of a given business separately and then combine them to reach an overall valuation and price target for the company’s stock. This type of analysis is often used when valuing large conglomerates that own multiple operations, which all need to be evaluated using different metrics.

Ives believes Tesla is far more than just an EV company, and therefore should be valued using a sum-of-parts analysis. He points to Tesla’s robust supercharger network, energy business, A.I. autonomous driving tech, and “unmatched battery ecosystem” as separate parts of the company that should be valued individually. “With this delivery beat, we believe the sum-of-the-parts story for Tesla is another step towards coming into play,” he wrote, arguing that Tesla’s “golden EV success story” is just beginning to be recognized on Wall Street.

The bear’s take

While Ives and other Tesla bulls took a victory lap Monday, bears weren’t exactly hibernating just yet. Craig Irwin, Roth Capital senior research analyst, held an $85 price target on Tesla and warned of rising competition and a stretched valuation.

“The valuation is just—it’s absurd. It’s egregiously overvalued,” Irwin told CNBC Monday. “And Tesla has over 100 other EV models coming to market to compete against their four mainline units. Many of those are going to be wildly successful.”

To his point, Tesla currently trades at over 70 times its trailing 12-month earnings, while the S&P 500 trades at just under 20 times earnings. A Bank of America research note in June argued that the EV giant is set to lose market share in the U.S. as more legacy carmakers push into the EV business. “Specifically, our forecasts suggest Tesla’s market share will decline from a peak of 78% in 2018 to 18% by 2026,” the investment bank’s automotive analysts wrote.

But while Bank of America admitted that “this market share direction is a bit daunting” for Tesla, they noted that it means the company will remain the largest EV maker in the U.S. for years to come. “TSLA is establishing itself as a sizable player in the total U.S. auto market,” they noted. And the latest delivery numbers for the EV giant certainly aren’t what bears were expecting.

 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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