End of Easy Money: Bank of England Talks Tightening amid “Altered Consumer Behavior,” Visions of Persistent Inflation - WOLF STREET | Canada News Media
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End of Easy Money: Bank of England Talks Tightening amid “Altered Consumer Behavior,” Visions of Persistent Inflation – WOLF STREET

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“It’s appropriate” that markets price in “a significantly earlier path of tightening than they did previously.”

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Inflation in the UK has shot from below 1% earlier this year to 3.2% in August, the highest in 10 years, with core inflation – excluding food and energy – hitting 3.1%. OK, there was some “base effect” due to the very low inflation rate a year earlier. But the current spike of inflation, as measured by the last six-month average inflation annualized, is already at 4.5%, unrelated to the base effect. An annual inflation rate of 4.5% would be the highest in decades. In September, the Bank of England hiked its forecast for annual inflation by the end of the year to over 4%.

While this is still lower than the red-hot inflation in the US, it is way above the Bank of England’s target of 2.0%.

And the BoE is getting worried that the underlying trends are persistent, instead of temporary, that they’re getting embedded in the economy, and that they will be hard to dislodge through monetary policy once they’re embedded, and it’s making rate-hike noises a lot sooner than expected.

“Unfortunately, if you look at our last forecast, it [inflation] is going to go higher, I am afraid,” Andrew Bailey, Governor of the BoE and Chair of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, told the Yorkshire Post in an interview. “As the Bank of England governor, I would prefer it not be there. But we are in very unusual times, and what I would say is we have to manage our way through these times,” he said.

“Obviously I am concerned with inflation above target,” he said. “We are going to have a very delicate and challenging job on our hands, so we have got to, in a sense, prevent the thing becoming permanently embedded because that would obviously be very damaging.”

A huge amount of focus was currently being directed to bring inflation under control, he said.

With the pandemic having altered consumer behavior, the economy had a “whole range of challenges that we are just going to have to deal with,” he said.

“We have got some very big and unwanted price changes,” he said

“This has been an almost unprecedented set of events. They are not over yet, that we are learning. We have to manage our way through them, and we will do that,” he said.

Pricing in the energy market indicated that inflation would be higher next year, as a price cap on consumers’ energy tariffs set by the regulator is expected to rise again next year.

“A huge amount can happen between now and then, so I am not going to speculate,” Bailey said, “but at the moment the forward curve would suggest that it would be higher, so that would suggest inflation persistence.

“So transience would be longer,” he said.

Financial markets are now pricing in the first rate hike later this year, after the BoE, in its last meeting, raised the possibility that it could raise rates as early as November.

Michael Saunders, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, told the Telegraph, “I think it is appropriate that the markets have moved to pricing a significantly earlier path of tightening than they did previously.”

He’s concerned that capacity pressures and higher growth in wages are driving an increase in inflation that “could become more persistent unless monetary policy responds,” he said.

Huw Pill, the BoE’s new chief economist, said last week, the “balance of risks is currently shifting towards great concerns about the inflation outlook, as the current strength of inflation looks set to prove more long-lasting than originally anticipated.”

If the BoE raises its policy rate this year, far earlier than was expected just a couple of months ago, it would follow in the footsteps of smaller central banks in Europe and elsewhere that have already raised their rates, some of them already multiple times:

  • Bank of Korea: 1 hike, by 25 basis points
  • Czech National Bank: 3 hikes, by a total of 125 basis points
  • National Bank of Poland: 1 hike, by 40 basis points
  • Central Bank of Iceland: 3 hikes, by a total 75 basis points
  • Norges Bank (Norway): 1 hike, by 25 basis points
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand: by 25 basis points.

This has all come a lot faster than expected this spring. And there are increasingly vocal concerns – such as by the BoE governors, but also among Fed governors and many others – that the notion of this inflation surge being “transitory” or “temporary” may not play out in reality.

There are vocal concerns that the underlying tendencies are an indication that this is going to be much more persistent, and is in the process of getting embedded in the economy, amid altered consumer behavior documented by their willingness and ability to pay whatever amid enormous fiscal and monetary stimulus. And tightening – or rather the removal of monetary stimulus, as central bankers will emphasize – is coming faster than previously expected. One of the biggest money printers, the Bank of Japan, has already stopped printing money

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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