Erdoğan: The master haggler of world politics | Canada News Media
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Erdoğan: The master haggler of world politics

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Only Hungary’s Viktor Orbán comes anywhere near to exasperating Western allies as much as Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Anyone reckoning on longevity in office diminishing the Turkish president’s skillful unpredictability would have been disabused by his tour de force at NATO’s annual summit in Vilnius this week.

Erdoğan jolted Western allies — and Vladimir Putin — with his outspoken support for Ukraine’s bid to join the 31-nation military bloc, saying the war-torn country “deserves NATO membership.” He followed that quickly by adding a new, impossible condition on dropping his veto on Sweden joining NATO: that the European Union must first advance Turkey’s long-stalled bid to be admitted.

It looked like the summit would be totally sidetracked from its planned focus on Ukraine. “Nobody should expect compromise nor understanding from me,” Erdoğan declared as he set off for Lithuania.

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And then suddenly he pirouetted. After hours of frenetic diplomacy, the Turkish leader shook hands with a relieved-looking NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson. He had dropped his veto on Swedish membership, after blocking it for months on the grounds that Stockholm had been harboring Kurdish activists who Ankara describes as “terrorists.”

Even by his own mercurial standards, Erdoğan caught everyone by surprise.

Through this succession of policy twists and U-turns, Turkey secured substantial concessions, said Rich Outzen, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a think tank. “You have to acknowledge that Erdoğan played his hand well in terms of protecting Turkey’s national interests,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russia was wrong-footed, too. Erdoğan abruptly decided to free commanders of the Ukrainian Azov Regiment being held under a prisoner swap deal. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, complained of “a violation” of trust. “No one informed Russia about the transfer,” Peskov grumbled. “They were supposed to stay in Turkey until the end of the conflict.”

At first glance Erdoğan’s machinations look mercurial and even chaotic. But his behavior has all the hallmarks of the Ottoman etiquette and ritual of haggling at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, only with much bigger stakes. For Outzen, Erdoğan this week was doing what he always does — playing all sides off, capricious bargaining to get what he wanted, and not only to keep Sweden’s feet to the fire when it comes to Kurdish activists.

When it came to NATO expansion and Swedish accession, Washington and Brussels were in some ways misreading Erdoğan, he said. They see him as being “uniquely bad and for no good reason haranguing Sweden about its entry and only finally giving in after he was badgered appropriately and energetically by the West.”

But Outzen, who served in the U.S. Department of State as both a military and civilian adviser, working in the Policy Planning Office, says this is wrong. Erdoğan likely was always intending to eventually allow the Swedes to join, he was just after a better deal.

Being a member of NATO, the world’s premier security organization, enhances Turkish power, Outzen said, and they are always happy in principle at it being enlarged. “I actually think Erdoğan was playing a game based on the knowledge that ultimately he would let Sweden in but knowing that with the summit coming up he could maximize good optics and extract more concessions,” said Outzen.

New jets, please

Among the concessions was the sale of 40 new American F-16 warplanes to Turkey as well as the kit to upgrade the planes already in the country’s possession.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has dismissed suggestions there was any link between Turkey’s backing down over Sweden and the F-16s. But as any good detective knows coincidences are rare. And U.S. lawmakers who have long opposed the sale to Turkey of the F-16s have come under pressure in the past two weeks from the Biden administration to lift their objections with the efforts intensifying as the summit neared.

Among the concessions was the sale of 40 new American F-16 warplanes to Turkey | Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

The concessions the Turkish leader secured go well beyond fighter jets. Western powers are poised to lift a slew of defense and aviation sanctions that were imposed on Ankara from 2019, said Emre Uslu, a Turkish academic. The sanctions were a reaction to Turkey’s purchase of Russian weapon systems and in response to Ankara’s military incursion into northern Syria.

In the NATO statement released after Erdoğan’s meeting with Stoltenberg and Kristersson, the alliance committed “to the principle that there should be no restrictions, barriers or sanctions to defence trade and investment among Allies. We will work towards eliminating such obstacles.” That was a big win for the Turkish leader.

He has long lobbied for Western sanctions on the country’s aviation and defense sectors to be lifted for both state and family reasons. “Turkey’s aviation industry is critical in Erdoğan’s endeavor to build a strong military-industrial complex, much of which belongs to businesses owned by his cronies and his son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar,” Uslu added.

While Western powers may still be smarting from Erdoğan’s hardball tactics, Moscow’s reaction has also been tetchy, and for the first time in public the Russians criticized Turkey’s supplying of Bayraktar armed drones, which the Ukrainians have been using to good effect. The Kremlin says it expects clarification over Turkey’s release of the Ukrainian PoWs, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov complained to his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan this week about the “destructiveness” of Turkey’s military supplies to Ukraine.

Erdoğan’s actions prompted some to wonder whether he’s about to throw his lot in with the West. Western officials and geopolitical analysts have long questioned whether the Erdoğan-Putin friendship is sustainable. It started in earnest after a Turkish Air Force jet shot down a Russian warplane near the Syria–Turkey border in 2015. Some have questioned whether the friendship risks collapse because of the grandness of their geopolitical ambitions, which are often at cross-purposes. They were on opposing sides in Syria and Libya, for example.

But Putin and Erdoğan have been able to compartmentalize flashpoints in the past that threatened to upend their partnership. Erdoğan has a trump card in his hand — he’s refused so far to join the West in imposing economic sanctions on Russia. He hopes to host Putin in Turkey soon to discuss extending the deal to allow for the export of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and he’s likely to repeat his offer to act as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv.

According to Outzen, Erdoğan is likely to continue to play both sides, in keeping with traditional Turkish foreign policy. “For him to decide he is totally on board with the West now would be out of character,” he said.

 

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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